1. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated Agricultural Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture PINEMAP’s Decision Support System (DSS) Heather Dinon Aldridge, Gary Peter, Corey Davis, Ryan Boyles, and the whole PINEMAP team SRECA meeting, Athens, GA September 4, 2014

2. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated Agricultural Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture What is a DSS? Collection of tool(s) to guide decision making –Often integrate science and data / models –Often web-based & targeted for specific audience Educational and related extension material

3. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated Agricultural Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture How does a DSS work? Input: Information –Climate data, forecasts are just one input –Other inputs required, often sensitive to climate e.g. decision triggers –Requires engagement Output: Informed Guidance –Sometimes YES/NO, often probabilistic –Risk assessment is often a focus

4. LobDSS: Loblolly Pine Decision Support for Silviculture Input: e.g. initial density, basal area, age, soil type, etc. Outputs: e.g. products & diameter distribution, trees/acre, total wt, etc. DSS Stand-Level Example Tool:

5. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated Agricultural Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture What is PINEMAP’s DSS? Goal of DSS: Web-based toolbox to provide regional guidance on decisions associated with risk and opportunities (e.g. climate, genetics, management) Builds on coordinated research outputs Incorporates educational, extension materials

6. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated Agricultural Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture DSS development process Step 1: identify target audience Professional foresters Specialized practitioner / land manager Step 2: identify their decisions & questions Step 3: how does PINEMAP research fit into those questions/decisions?

7. Decision-Based Menus and Topics

8. DSS Product / Tool Clickable map with risk of future outbreaks Related Research / Dataset SPB risk models Stakeholder Question What is the risk of SPB outbreaks in the future?

9. Conceptual draft design

10. Tools in Progress

11. Mock-up Examples Environment Establishment Management Production

12. What are projections of extreme minimum temperature? Conceptual draft design

13. Where can I plant my seed in the future? Conceptual draft design

15. 15 How does future climate influence pine productivity ? Conceptual draft design

16. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated Agricultural Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture Coming soon… Future decision support tools: 1.How does future climate influence pine productivity using 3PG models? 2.What is the risk of hurricane impacts on pine stands when considering future climate? 3.What is the risk of SPB outbreaks on pine stands when considering future climate?

17. PINEMAP DSS Tools… …will take these risks and opportunities into consideration: 17 Fire Genetics Markets Management Climate Soils Pests/Disease Productivity

18. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated Agricultural Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture Challenges and Lessons Learned Communication, communication, communication Iterative process

19. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated Agricultural Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture Challenges and Lessons Learned Workshops Prototype Association Meetings Focus Group Sondeo Survey Interviews Online user feedback Professional foresters Extension Research PINEMAP DSS Traditional DSS pipeline development model: SECC multi-feedback loop model:

20. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated Agricultural Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture hadinon@ncsu.edu http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu 919-513-0244 Heather Dinon Aldridge 20

21. What will future water supply and demand look like? Conceptual draft design

22. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated Agricultural Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture Step 2: identify decisions & questions of our target audience Lead by Aim 6: Extension! Bill Hubbard Eric Taylor Gwen Boyd Mark Megalos Leslie Boby Sean Burns Martha Monroe Josh Idassi Tim Martin Jessica Ireland

23. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated Agricultural Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture Initial round: aim team conference calls Follow-up from aim calls: –Francisco Escobedo, Nilesh Timilsina (Aims 2&4) Step 3: how does research fit into questions/decisions? Tom Fox Mike Kane Steve McNulty Randy Wynne Tomasz Koralewski Tom Byram Ross Whetten Don Grebner Jessica Ireland Tim Martin DSS subcommittee:

24. Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation project (PINEMAP) is a Coordinated Agricultural Project funded by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture Risk Assessment Group –Damian Adams, Hyunjin An, Jim Gan, Don Grebner, Carlos Gonzalez, Tim Martin, Andres Susaeta Larrain, Eric Taylor, Bob Teskey, Maggie Wang Seed Deployment Tool Gary Peter Jianxing Zhang Step 3: how does research fit into questions/decisions?