1. European Socio-Economic Classification Validation Conference Portuguese Statistical Office Lisbon, 19-20 January 2006

2. Unemployment risks in four European countries: an attempt of testing the construct validity of the ESeC scheme Antonio Schizzerotto, Roberta Barone & Laura Arosio University of Milano Bicocca University of Milano BicoccaItaly

3. Aims of the study Testing the construct validity of the ESeC classification, by means of a comparative analysis aimed at detecting the variations across four EU-15 countries in the risks of unemployment experienced by incumbents of occupations belonging to different ESeC classes. Checking whether in the case of Italy different versions of Isco88.com- i.e. 2, 3 and 4 digit versions- affect the estimated disparities between ESeC classes in the risk of unemployment

4. Four EU countries Denmark, as a representative of countries where the State playes an important role in the functioning of the whole society Germany and Italy, as representatives of countries where family has a crucial position in the institutional arrangements of the society United Kingdom, as a representative of countries that attribute great importance to the market in the workings of the society

5. Three hypotheses to be tested ESeC is a valid social scheme The disparities between ESeC classes in the risk of unemployment should follow the same general pattern between countries that posses a market economy Despite this basic similarity, as a consequence of different institutional arrangements and labour market regulations across countries, one should observe between countries dissimilarities in unemployment risks displayed by each ESeC class.

6. Data sources Waves from 1994 to 2001 of the European Community Households Panel (ECHP) Waves 1997, 1999 and 2001 of Ilfi (Italian Households Longitudinal Study)

7. Methods Poisson regression of unemployment incident rates ratios Survivor functions in employment by ESeC classes

8. ESeC classes and risks of unemployment

9. ESeC ClassesCountry DKDEUKIT 1: Higher salariat occupations 0,16***0,31***0,23***0,15*** 2: Lower salariat occupations0,31***0,28***0,26***0,16*** 3: Intermediate occupations0,74***0,48***0,45***0,21*** 4: Self employed and small employers0,34***0,20***0,32***0,28*** 5: Self employed and small employers in agriculture0,01***0,04***0,26***0,09*** 6: Lower supervisory and lower technician occupations0,52***0,81***0,23***0,29*** 7: Lower services, sales and clerical occupations0,97***0,58***0,70***0,52*** 8: Lower technical occupations0,77***0,70***0,75***0,63*** 9: Routine occupations (a)1,00 (a) Reference category; *** p <0,01;** p <0,05; * p <0,1 Poisson Regression of Unemployment Incidence Rate Ratios by ESeC Classes and Country in the period 1994-2001

10. ESec ClassesCountry DKDEUKIT 1: Higher salariat occupations0.730.810.911.761.861.970.810.870.941.301.391.49 2: Lower salariat occupations1.431.551.681.581.671.770.910.981.051.371.451.53 3: Intermediate occupations3.473.673.892.732.873.011.611.711.811.881.972.07 4: Self employed and small employers1.441.702.021.081.201.341.101.211.332.472.572.67 5: Self employed and small employers in agriculture0.00 0.090.240.630.580.971.610.620.821.07 6: Lower supervisory and lower technician occupations2.282.582.914.614.794.970.770.881.012.512.712.92 7: Lower services, sales and clerical occupations4.524.795.083.333.463.602.492.642.794.644.825.01 8: Lower technical occupations3.533.804.094.024.144.272.672.853.055.705.845.99 9: Routine occupations4.674.955.255.715.946.173.603.773.969.079.329.58 Average incidence rates (%) of unemployment (in bold letters) and 95% confidence intervals by ESeC classes and countries in the period 1994-2001

11. Poisson regression of unemployment incidence rate ratios by ESeC classes and country controlling for gender, age, level of education and marital status. ECHP waves 1-7 CovariatesCountry DKDEUKIT ESec classes 1: Higher salariat occupations0.19*** 0,40***0.30***0.26*** 2: Lower salariat occupations0.31*** 0,33***0.32***0.25*** 3: Intermediate occupations0.66*** 0,54***0.53***0.28*** 4: Self employed and small employers0.40*** 0,24***0.39***0.36*** 5: Self employed and small employers in agriculture0.10*** 0,04***0.30***0.13*** 6: Lower supervisory and lower technician occupations0.57*** 1,000.24***0.34*** 7: Lower services. sales and clerical occupations0.82*** 0,66***0.77***0.54*** 8: Lower technical occupations0.92 0,91***0.68***0.58*** 9: Routine occupations (a) 1.001,001.00 Gender Men0.58*** 0,74***1.46***0.88*** Women (a)1.00 1,001.00 Age0.99* 0,95***0.93*** Age squared1.00* 1,00***1.00*** Education Tertiary0.90** 0,82***0.81***0.50*** Higher secondary0.87*** 0,90***0.85***0.71*** Below higher secondary (a)1.00 1,001.00 Civil status Married0.69*** 0,77***0.53***0.61*** Separated or divorced0.88** 1,050.94**0.50*** Unmarried (a)1.00 1,001.00 Pseudo R squared0.07350.05890.0855 0.1328 (a) Reference category

12. Average incidence rates (%) of unemployment (in bold letters) and 95% confidence intervals by ESeC classes and countries in the period 1994-2001. Estimates from multivariate Poisson regression model controlling for gender, age, education and civil status. ESec ClassesCountry DKDEUKIT 1: Higher salariat occupations0.720.830.951.731.862.000.850.931.031.371.501.63 2: Lower salariat occupations1.421.581.761.551.661.780.951.051.161.491.601.72 3: Intermediate occupations3.353.684.032.722.893.081.721.872.04 2.172.31 4: Self employed and small employers1.431.732.091.091.221.371.141.281.442.532.672.83 5: Self employed and small employers in agriculture0.00 0.090.230.620.631.051.750.640.851.13 6: Lower supervisory and lower technician occupations2.292.643.034.554.815.090.780.911.062.602.833.09 7: Lower services. sales and clerical occupations4.484.925.403.313.513.722.592.833.084.945.205.49 8: Lower technical occupations3.573.954.373.914.114.322.793.043.335.735.976.21 9: Routine occupations4.605.065.565.355.686.033.834.144.479.279.6810.1

13. ESeC classes and the duration of employment episodes

18. Log-rank test of expected and observed events of dismissal by ESeC classes and country and values of χ2 test. ESeC ClassesCountry DKDEUKIT observedexpectedobservedexpectedobservedexpectedobservedexpected 1: Higher salariat occupations51106.96140233110159.554158.12 2: Lower salariat occupations86125.91168250.98104158.53121204.64 3: Intermediate occupations105106.49175207.55168159.75122194.32 4: Self employed and small employers928.144576.175274.05154236.4 5: Self employed and small employers in agriculture 04.4215.2733.34312.59 6: Lower supervisory and lower technician occupations 3135.71258188.33251.274664.9 7: Lower services, sales and clerical occupations15292.17244235.19161120.09217138.11 8: Lower technical occupations7063.25442317.8710568.98405255.08 9: Routine occupations (a)14484.96197155.66177116.48291148.85 χ 2, 8 d.f. 142.96173.78114.10447.54

19. The validity of ESeC class scheme and Isco 88 com versions according to Ilfi data

20. ESeC classes size (in percentages) by Isco 88 com version. Italy, 2001 (current occupation) ESeC ClassesIsco version Four digitsThree digitsTwo digits 1: Higher salariat occupations11.39.711.2 2: Lower salariat occupations13.014.510.7 3: Intermediate occupations18.919.419.2 4: Self employed and small employers16.616.817.9 5: Self employed and small employers in agriculture1.21.3 6: Lower supervisory and lower technician occupations3.23.11.4 7: Lower services, sales and clerical occupations7.57.411.1 8: Lower technical occupations9.68.510.8 9: Routine occupations18.919.416.6 Total100 N 6058

21. ESeC classes size (in percentages) by Isco 88 com version. Working episodes, Italy 1980-2001 ESeC ClassesIsco version Four digitsThree digitsTwo digits 1: Higher salariat occupations 6.35.36.1 2: Lower salariat occupations 8.49.47.4 3: Intermediate occupations 15.415.916.4 4: Self employed and small employers 10.310.511.0 5: Self employed and small employers in agriculture 2.72.6 6: Lower supervisory and lower technician occupations 2.72.81.3 7: Lower services, sales and clerical occupations 8.88.711.8 8: Lower technical occupations 14.712.916.3 9: Routine occupations 30.731.927.0 Total 100 N 21404

22. Poisson regression of unemployment incidence rate ratios by Isco 88 com version. Italy 1980-2001 ESeC ClassesIsco version Four digitsThree digitsTwo digits 1: Higher salariat occupations0.23***0.19***0.22*** 2: Lower salariat occupations0.24***0.27***0.31*** 3: Intermediate occupations0.69**0.66***0.78* 4: Self employed and small employers0.53***0.49***0.50*** 5: Self employed and small employers in agriculture0.09***0.08***0.09*** 6: Lower supervisory and lower technician occupations0.47**0.50**0.35*** 7: Lower services, sales and clerical occupations1.291.170.98 8: Lower technical occupations0.930.70**0.88 9: Routine occupations (a)1.00 (a) Reference category; *** p <0,01;** p <0,05; * p <0,1

23. Average unemployment incidence rates (%) by Isco 88 com version. Italy 1980-2001 ESeC ClassesIsco version Four digitsThree digitsTwo digits 1: Higher salariat occupations0.990.860.93 2: Lower salariat occupations1.011.231.31 3: Intermediate occupations2.962.983.34 4: Self employed and small employers2.252.222.15 5: Self employed and small employers in agriculture0.370.38 6: Lower supervisory and lower technician occupations2.002.261.49 7: Lower services, sales and clerical occupations5.495.334.17 8: Lower technical occupations3.953.193.76 9: Routine occupations4.274.544.26

24. Employment relations and level of social desirability of ESeC classes according to ILFI data

25. ESeC classes by type of contract, Italy, 1980-2001. ESeC classes Type of contract Permanent contract, full-time Permanent contract, part-time Fixed term contract, full-time Fixed term contract, part-time No contract N. 1 Higher salariat occupations75.22.418.73.7-540 2 Lower salariat occupations68.11.122.03.65.11,552 3 Intermediate occupations (higher grade white collars workers) 67.63.218.43.37.43,076 6 Lower supervisory and lower technician occupations (higher grade blue collar workers) 82.90.58.40.97.2556 7 Lower services, sales and clerical occupations (lower grade white collar workers) 58.43.615.93.318.91,743 8 Lower technical occupations (Skilled workers)63.20.512.30.523.53,042 9 Routine occupations (Semi- and non-skilled workers)59.72.113.91.622.76,314 Total63.72.015.42.116.8 N.10,7103412,5883552,82916,823

26. Employment status of ESeC classes 1 and 2, Italy, 1980-2001. ESeC classesStatus in employmentTotal EmployeesSelf-employed 1 Higher salariat occupations45.354.7100 2 Lower salariat occupations89.011.0100 N.2,2059323,137

27. Scale’s score by ESeC classes, Italy, 1980-2001. ESeC classesMean scoreMedian score 1 Higher salariat occupations69.671.0 2 Lower salariat occupations60.559.5 3 Intermediate occupations (higher grade white collars workers)43.544.7 4 Self employed and small employer occupations (non-professional etc agriculture etc)45.949.6 5 Self employed and small employer occupations in agriculture etc34.934.8 6 Lower supervisory and lower technician occupations (higher grade blue collar workers)43.145.4 7 Lower services, sales and clerical occupations (lower grade white collar workers)23.923.6 8 Lower technical occupations (Skilled workers)24.926.3 9 Routine occupations (Semi- and un-skilled workers)19.417.9