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Is There Trouble With The Bubble? Presented by: Gregory H. Leisch, CRE November 14, 2005
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Prices Are Way Up
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U.S. Is Experiencing Record Homeownership Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Economy.com; Delta Associates;11/14/05. 70% 60% 61% 62% 63% 64% 65% 66% 67% 68% 69% 75767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899000102030405 Homeownership Rate
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And Investor Purchases Are Up Sources: LoanPerformance and HMDA; Delta Associates; 11/14/05. % Home Purchases by Investors
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And In Some Markets, Way Up Washington, D.C. Las VegasSouth Florida Speculators & Investors End Users 70% 30% 85% 15% 80% 20% Sources: Multifamilyexecutive.com; Delta Associates; 11/14/05. Condo Purchases in Select Markets
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Source: NAREIT, NCREIF, Vanguard, Delta Associates; November 2005. Total Return/Year Real Estate Alternatives Real Estate Returns vs. Investment Alternatives As of Mid-Year 2005
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And Second Home Purchases Are Up Sources: LoanPerformance and HMDA; Delta Associates, 11/14/05. % of Mortgages for Second Homes
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Annual Increase Existing Home Values As of June 2005 Sources: OFHEO; Delta Associates; 11/14/05. Annual House Price Increase U.S. Average 13.4%
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Are Prices Sustainable?
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Trend In Ratio Median Home Price to Median Household Income 1981-2005 Sources: Freddie Mac; Delta Associates; 11/14/05. Ratio 0502
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Ratio Median Home Price to Median Household Income at June 2005 Major Metro Areas Ratio Sources: NAR; Economy.com; Delta Associates; 11/14/05. U.S. 4.3
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Types of Mortgages (Second Half of 2004) % Second Half 2004 Originations Sources: MBA; Delta Associates; 11/14/05.
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Are Certain Cities at Risk?
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Thousands of New Jobs Payroll Job Growth Large Metro Areas 12 Months Ending September 2005 Sources: BLS, Delta Associates; 11/14/05.
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Average Annual Building Permits 2000-2002 Sources: US Census Bureau; Delta Associates; 11/14/05. Number of Units
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Barriers to Entry Sources: Delta Associates; 11/14/05.
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Percent of Apartment Sales to Condo Converters April 2004-March 2005 Sources: Real Capital Analytics; Delta Associates; 11/14/05.
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Prerequisite to a Burst: u Over production of housing Source: Delta Associates; 11/14/05. u Trauma to the local economy
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Softer Markets Will Begin To Experience: u Supply will begin to outstrip demand u Price appreciation will decline severely u Instead of one day sell outs and waiting lines, concessions will appear u Since owners will not be able to sell units as quickly as before, they will offer them for rent Source: Delta Associates; 11/14/05.
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Is There Trouble With The Bubble? Presented by: Gregory H. Leisch, CRE November 14, 2005
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