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Is There Trouble With The Bubble? Presented by: Gregory H. Leisch, CRE November 14, 2005.

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Presentation on theme: "Is There Trouble With The Bubble? Presented by: Gregory H. Leisch, CRE November 14, 2005."— Presentation transcript:

1 Is There Trouble With The Bubble? Presented by: Gregory H. Leisch, CRE November 14, 2005

2 Prices Are Way Up

3 U.S. Is Experiencing Record Homeownership Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Economy.com; Delta Associates;11/14/05. 70% 60% 61% 62% 63% 64% 65% 66% 67% 68% 69% 75767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899000102030405 Homeownership Rate

4 And Investor Purchases Are Up Sources: LoanPerformance and HMDA; Delta Associates; 11/14/05. % Home Purchases by Investors

5 And In Some Markets, Way Up Washington, D.C. Las VegasSouth Florida Speculators & Investors End Users 70% 30% 85% 15% 80% 20% Sources: Multifamilyexecutive.com; Delta Associates; 11/14/05. Condo Purchases in Select Markets

6 Source: NAREIT, NCREIF, Vanguard, Delta Associates; November 2005. Total Return/Year Real Estate Alternatives Real Estate Returns vs. Investment Alternatives As of Mid-Year 2005

7 And Second Home Purchases Are Up Sources: LoanPerformance and HMDA; Delta Associates, 11/14/05. % of Mortgages for Second Homes

8 Annual Increase Existing Home Values As of June 2005 Sources: OFHEO; Delta Associates; 11/14/05. Annual House Price Increase U.S. Average 13.4%

9 Are Prices Sustainable?

10 Trend In Ratio Median Home Price to Median Household Income 1981-2005 Sources: Freddie Mac; Delta Associates; 11/14/05. Ratio 0502

11 Ratio Median Home Price to Median Household Income at June 2005 Major Metro Areas Ratio Sources: NAR; Economy.com; Delta Associates; 11/14/05. U.S. 4.3

12 Types of Mortgages (Second Half of 2004) % Second Half 2004 Originations Sources: MBA; Delta Associates; 11/14/05.

13 Are Certain Cities at Risk?

14 Thousands of New Jobs Payroll Job Growth Large Metro Areas 12 Months Ending September 2005 Sources: BLS, Delta Associates; 11/14/05.

15 Average Annual Building Permits 2000-2002 Sources: US Census Bureau; Delta Associates; 11/14/05. Number of Units

16 Barriers to Entry Sources: Delta Associates; 11/14/05.

17 Percent of Apartment Sales to Condo Converters April 2004-March 2005 Sources: Real Capital Analytics; Delta Associates; 11/14/05.

18 Prerequisite to a Burst: u Over production of housing Source: Delta Associates; 11/14/05. u Trauma to the local economy

19 Softer Markets Will Begin To Experience: u Supply will begin to outstrip demand u Price appreciation will decline severely u Instead of one day sell outs and waiting lines, concessions will appear u Since owners will not be able to sell units as quickly as before, they will offer them for rent Source: Delta Associates; 11/14/05.

20 Is There Trouble With The Bubble? Presented by: Gregory H. Leisch, CRE November 14, 2005


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