1. MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook Prepared for NCSHA Annual Conference September 29, 2015 Mike Fratantoni Chief Economist MBA

2. MBA Economic Outlook Source: MBA Forecast – September 2015

3. Job Growth Showing Sustained Strength Source: BLS

4. More Wage Growth in the Works? Source: BLS

5. But Compensation Growth Not Picking Up Yet Source: BLS

6. Difference in Headline vs Core Inflation

7. Rates Expected to Increase Source: BEA, MBA Forecast

8. Refinance Activity Slowing Down Source: MBA Weekly Applications Survey

9. Home Sales and Interest Rates Source: Census, Federal Reserve, MBA, NAR

10. Three Tectonic Trends Affecting U.S. Housing Markets -Demographics -Long-term Societal Trends -Hang-over from the Great Recession

11. Source: Census Household Growth Predominantly Renters

12. More Young and Old, Fewer Middle-Aged Source: Census

13. Growing Older Sources: Census and MBA

14. HOUSEHOLD DEMAND: Changing Demographics and Economy Plus Trends Source: Census and MBA

15. HOMEOWNERSHIP DEMAND I : The Status Quo Source: Census and MBA

16. HOMEOWNERSHIP DEMAND II : Reversion to Long Run Average Homeownership Rates Source: Census and MBA

17. Large but Falling Multifamily Shares Source: Census and MBA

18. Home Prices Within Two Percent of 2007 Peak Source: FHFA

19. Turnover Returning to Early 2000 Rates Source: NAR, Census, MBA

20. Modest Moves in Credit Availability Source: Mortgage Bankers Association; Powered by AllRegs Market Clarity

21. Credit Availability In Historical Context Source: ALLREGS, MBA 3/2011 through present (rescaled)

22. Differentiated Purchase Application Market Source: MBA Monthly Profile of Mortgage Activity Differentiated Growth in Purchase Market

23. Estimated Originations 1990 to 2016 Source: MBA Forecast – September 2015

24. Performance Continues To Improve in Q2 2015 Source: MBA National Delinquency Survey

25. Loans in Foreclosure Declining Source: MBA National Delinquency Survey

26. Foreclosure Starts Back to Pre-Recession Level Source: MBA National Delinquency Survey

27. Commercial/Multifamily Markets

29. Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding ($ millions) Source: MBA Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding

30. Contact Information & MBA Resources Mortgage Bankers Association 1919 M Street NW, 5 th Floor Washington, DC 20036 MBA Research page: www.mba.org/research Research Institute for Housing America: http://www.housingamerica.org MBA Newslink: http://www.mortgagebankers.org/NewsandMedia/MBANewsLink Mike Fratantoni Chief Economist & Senior Vice President Research & Industry Technology mfratantoni@mba.org 202-557-2935