1. Wednesday, 8 September 2004 The health and wealth of the internet industry ivo vegter ict journalist

2. Wednesday, 8 September 2004 Same old, same old with apologies to Bill Watterson and United Press Syndicate

3. Wednesday, 8 September 2004 Same old, same old “Managed liberalisation” has failed Telkom still a monopoly, 7.5 years on SNO still not licenced VANS still not carrying voice Telecoms costs still unconscionably high South Africa still falling behind Foreign investment still zero Universal service still pie in the sky

4. Wednesday, 8 September 2004 The status quo Internet penetration in SA has barely risen:

5. Wednesday, 8 September 2004 The status quo SA now fourth in absolute terms and last in growth terms compared to ten peers:

6. Wednesday, 8 September 2004 Then one day… …the Minister woke up… …and the world as we knew it changed. So did this presentation.

7. Wednesday, 8 September 2004 The Big Bang “Managed liberalisation” is dead The DOC did a market study? The market has been broken wide open A new golden age for the internet industry has dawned

8. Wednesday, 8 September 2004 The Big Bang From 1 February 2005: Cellular companies may interconnect using non-PSTS infrastructure VANS may carry voice over any protocol VANS may provide network services using non-PSTS infrastructure VANS and PTNs may resell spare network capacity Anyone may apply for a licence to provide payphone services All other laws, regulations, and licence conditions remain From 18 January 2005: Schools and tertiary institutions will be entitled to 50% discount on ISP fees, as well as all calls to ISPs

9. Wednesday, 8 September 2004 Why? Should have happened in 2002 Dr Ivy Matsepe-Casaburri reappointed Her mandate? Why Roy Padayachee as deputy? Presidential ICT Task Force Presidential International Advisory Council on the Information Society and Development Thabo Mbeki ran out of patience?

10. Wednesday, 8 September 2004 Implications for regulation Many existing legal disputes are moot Least-cost routing, call-back operators New disputes will probably arise ICASA still needs resources and power Today’s monopoly complainants will be tomorrow’s predatory pricing complainants Competition Commission must look sharp Policy is finally technology-neutral The Convergence Bill may well be moot

11. Wednesday, 8 September 2004 Implications for telcos Telkom will change, but remains strongest Telkom faces hundreds of new competitors Changes entire SNO proposition, could sue Big blow to USALs, could sue Sentech will face serious challenge Mixed blessing for cellular companies, and Cell C now more vulnerable than ever International operators will want to play

12. Wednesday, 8 September 2004 Implications for ISPs ISPs with broadband and VOIP plans at the ready will prosper ISPs with access to capital will outperform Death of dial-up growth? Telkom, Sentech and SNO will soon compete to supply international access Alternative infrastructure suppliers and self-provisioning will force prices down

13. Wednesday, 8 September 2004 Implications for customers Innovators get to freely compete for customer spend Broadband everywhere Prices will drop, but only gradually Digital divide can now be tackled Time-based billing to become obsolete New services, new applications Choice, choice, choice – and risk

14. Wednesday, 8 September 2004 Issues that remain Numbering plan, number portability ENUM, SA ID number, VOIP termination Break-in/out and interconnection regulations International access SAT3 and EASSY Cost impact of bulk-buying-for-resale? Spectrum allocation Tradeability and use-it-or-lose-it regulation would assure optimum allocation Local loop unbundling Already paid-for by taxpayers, after all

15. Wednesday, 8 September 2004 Planning for a gold rush Technology and supplier neutrality Converged devices, services Pay attention to security, QoS, shaping and prioritisation Simplicity in both products and pricing Affordability: be innovative to reach new markets Think local: prepaid, wireless local loop

16. Wednesday, 8 September 2004 Planning for a gold rush Don’t be fooled about low barriers to entry Don’t think Telkom won’t adapt handily Exploit niche opportunities Offshore call centres and BPO Exploit new opportunities Local language services Regional information services Move carefully, don’t get trampled

17. Wednesday, 8 September 2004 IT’S BOOM TIME! thank you ivo vegter ict journalist