1. Modeling HOT Lanes TPB’s Approach AMPO Travel Modeling Group March 21, 2006 I:\ateam\meetings_conf\ampo_tms\2006-03-20\Hot_Lane_Pres_to_AMPO_Final.ppt

2. 10/21/20152 Highway Pricing in the Capital Region Few existing tolled facilities, limited observed data Highway pricing now viewed as a ‘solution’ –Term ‘HOT Lanes’ is now common in the media –Viewed as an additional revenue source for expansion –Viewed as management vehicle for existing highway supply –Viewed as an additional travel option for those willing to pay Hybrid/SOVs can use HOV Lanes in VA under current law –Hybrid volume levels in HOV lanes have been increasing Planning interest in highway pricing is now intense

3. 10/21/20153 Recent Developments Public Private Transportation Act (PPTA) in Virginia has facilitated two privately financed construction proposals HOT lanes on the Capital Beltway in Virginia (4 Lanes, 15 miles) HOT lanes on I-395/I-95 in Virginia (2/3 lanes, 50-60 miles) TPB Value Pricing Task Force Established –Goals formulated for implementing a system of HOT Lanes 1.Seamless connections between jurisdictions 2.Transition from HOV to HOT lanes 3.Integration and financing of transit HOT lane network being studied on entire freeway system

4. 10/21/20154 Most cars stay on this section of the Beltway for only 1 or 2 interchanges 4pm to 7pm

5. 10/21/20155 Approach For Modeling Highway Pricing Travel Time Equivalent Approach: Converting monetary toll value to an equivalent travel time that is added to the ‘normal’ travel time used to develop paths –The toll is an added impedance along a given path –The travel time savings on the tolled path must offset the toll impedance Advantage: –Reasonable / Easy to explain –Can readily incorporate into existing 4-step model Disadvantages: –No accounting for unobserved benefits Safety, Reliability, Security of having the option available, etc. Toll Revenue expectation: underestimated

6. 10/21/20156 Equivalent Travel Time Use in the Travel Model

7. 10/21/20157 Deriving Equivalent Travel Time By Income Level, Purpose

8. 10/21/20158 Deriving Equivalent Travel Time By Vehicle Type, Time Period

9. 10/21/20159 HOT Lane Modeling Paradox You Already Know the Output: –HOT LANE Speed: 50 – 60 mph –HOT Lane Volume 1,800 – 2,000 vpl …So What’s the Input? –The toll value/rate, on a segment-by-segment basis, that will result in the desired output ‘Trial / Error’ needed to hone in on a segment by segment toll rate ($/mi)

10. 10/21/201510 Tolls need to vary by time of day, segment, and direction to ensure high level of service Segment SouthboundNorthbound AMPMAMPM 1$0.20 $0.60.............................. 3$0.20$1.10$0.70$0.60............................................................ 6$0.20$0.40$0.20$0.60 Peak Period Tolls per Mile (Baseline: $0.20 peak, $0.15 off-peak)

11. 10/21/201511 Regional Analysis of I-95/395 HOT Lanes Proposals HOT lanes added to regional network, based on Clark/Shirley and Fluor-Transurban proposals Widen existing reversible HOV lanes to Dumfries from 2 to 3 lanes (30 miles) Extend 2 reversible HOT lanes from Dumfries to Fredricksburg area (20 – 28 miles) Free for HOV3+, all other drivers pay toll –Proposed peak period tolls range from $0.10 to $0.30 / mile

12. 10/21/201512 Regional Analysis of I-95/395 HOT Lanes Proposals Beltway HOT lanes included in regional baseline network for 2010 Based on most recent land use forecasts (Round 7) –Does not include impact of BRAC recommendations –Does not include any new development resulting from HOT lanes

13. 10/21/201513 Analysis concludes proposed tolls are not high enough on some segments Beltway Interchange Fairfax Co. Parkway Washington Blvd. Dumfries Rd. Rt. 17 Bypass 2010 Travel Speeds with Proposed Tolls Southbound Peak Period (PM) Area south of the Beltway is problematic, even in the off peak period

14. 10/21/201514 To ensure high level of service, tolls will have to vary by segment Segment Southbound (PM Peak) Northbound (AM Peak) 1$1.10$0.80 2$1.00$1.10 3$1.60$1.00 4 $0.80 5 $0.23 Alternative Toll Scenario (per Mile)

15. 10/21/201515 If high service level is maintained, HOV volumes will increase on some segments, relative to 2010 baseline 2010 HOV Traffic Volumes with Alternative Toll Scenario Southbound Peak Period (PM) Beltway Interchange Fairfax Co. Parkway Washington Blvd. Dumfries Rd. Rt. 17 Bypass Alternative Toll Scenario 2010 Baseline Traffic volume (Thousands)

16. 10/21/201516 Limited capacity for toll-paying vehicles at chokepoint south of Beltway 2010 Traffic Volumes with Alternative Toll Scenario Southbound Peak Period (PM) Beltway Interchange Fairfax Co. Parkway Washington Blvd. Dumfries Rd. Rt. 17 Bypass

17. 10/21/201517 Synergy with the Capital Beltway 26% 32% 42% 2010 HOT Lane Traffic Volumes Northbound Peak Period (AM)

18. 10/21/201518 Another chokepoint occurs where HOT lanes end at 14 th Street Bridge Northbound center span (2 lanes) on the 14 th Street Bridge is already congested HOT lanes will add to the congestion Drops from 3 to 2 lanes

19. 10/21/201519 Observations Tolls will have to be significantly higher than proposed on certain segments to maintain high levels of service Increased transit (bus service on HOT lanes and commuter rail) should be studied as an integral part of the I-95/395 project Chokepoint south of the Beltway limits capacity for toll-paying vehicles HOT lanes add to northbound congestion on the 14 th Street Bridge center span (2 lanes)

20. 10/21/201520 Observations Based on California’s experience, drivers will pay an additional premium for the reliability of HOT lanes, and some will pay to use HOT lanes even when conventional lanes are not congested Revenue implications of alternative toll scenarios need to be studied for 2010 and future years Microsimulation modeling may be needed to examine capacity at entry and exit points