2. José Mourinho. Chelsea FC Manager BBC Online. February 20 th 2005

3.  Plenty of evidence from the past  Tiny changes in environment capable of triggering hazardous geological phenomena  Climate change is already starting to affect the solid Earth  Modelling suggests more to come

4. 1. Looking back 2. Where are we now? 3. Looking ahead 4. The last straw

5.  Temperature rise fastest for 11,500y  2000 – 2010 hottest decade on record after 1990s  Within 1ºC of highest Temperatures for ~ 1 million years  Carbon dioxide levels highest for 15 million years

6. 2º C 0.8º C 1.34º C º 2º C 280 387 450 ppm CO 2 Where next? Dangerous Climate Change (DCC) threshold? 387 450 280 387 450 280 387 450 ppm CO 2 280 387 450 ppm CO 2 280 387 450 Where next? 450 Where next? 387 450 Where next? 280 387 450 Where next? 280 387 450 Where next? DCC threshold may be well below 450 ppm UK Met Office study: only 20% chance that holding levels at 450 ppm would prevent a 2º C rise ppm CO 2 280 387 450 Where next? 400ppm

7. Medium emissions scenario (A1B) © Crown copyright Met Office

8. Temperature change (°C): 2090s compared to 1990s

10.  Temperatures up 6°C or so  Cold, arid climate replaced by warmer, wetter, conditions  52 million cubic kilometres of water shifted from ice sheets into ocean basins  2 -3km thick ice sheets melted at high latitudes  130m load added to ocean basins  Mass change lengthened day by 4 seconds

11. Depressed crust Rising magma Active fault

12. Going down Going up

13. Pärvie Fault (northern Sweden) Stuoragurra Fault (northern Norway) Basel 1356 New Madrid 1811-12

14. The great Storegga landslide

16. Continental ice sheets Ocean basins 52 million cubic km of water Action zone

17. San Andreas (California) Vesuvius High Andes (Chile) Massif Central (France)

18. Bering glacier Bagley Ice Field Mount Steller Kolka (Russia) 2002

20. Iceland uplift Vatnajökull Ice Cap Bardabunga Öraefajökull

21. Snow-capped volcanoes Coastal volcanoes Tropical volcanoes Etna Casita Sollipulli Rainier

22. Less of this? Japan 2011 More of this? Haiti 2010 Imja Tsho Nepal

23. Rock dam Lake Sarez Lake volume: 16 cubic km People threatened: 5.5 million Tajikistan

24. Montserrat eruptions: rainfall Japanese earthquakes: snow Taiwan tremors: typhoons Pavlof: sea level

25. More eruptions occur from November to March Attributed to seasonal redistributions of water mass

26.  Climate change is set to be severe  Global emissions up 58% since 1990  No real action until 2020 at least  10 – 30 years to save Greenland Ice Sheet  Geological havoc added to climate chaos?

27. 16 DEGREES C

28. EARLY MAY BANK HOLIDAY (May 1 st – 4 th ) Thursday, May 1 st QUESTION TIME (HOW) CAN WE TACKLE CLIMATE CHANGE? Question the experts and air your own views Friday, May 2 nd – Sunday 4th TALKING IN TWOS evening programme. Listen to some of the country’s top climate change experts and communicators: Fred Pearce, Mayer Hillman, Tim Lenton, Bob Ward, Mike Berners-Lee, Mark Maslin Saturday, May 3 rd SCHOOLS & FAMILIES DAY Stalls, activities, demonstrations, wild food walks, horse-drawn canal boat rides, music, art and lots more FULL PROGRAMME @ www.cromfordmills.org.uk