1. Advanced EFSA Learning Programme Session 4.2. Situation Analysis Step 6 Estimating Severity of Food Insecurity & Malnutrition

2. Advanced EFSA Learning Programme Learning Objectives After this session, participants should be able to:  List various indicators of severity of crisis  Explain the meaning and value of the “convergence of evidence” concept  Describe the “needs” vs. “food basket cost” method of estimating the food access gap 2

3. Advanced EFSA Learning Programme Where are we? 3 EFSA Process Adapt conceptual framework & objectives Prepare analysis plan: indicators, data, sources Collect, review secondary data Collect primary data Conduct situation analysis Conduct forecast analysis Analyse response options Make response recommendations Prepare report

4. Advanced EFSA Learning Programme Why estimate severity?  To ring the alarm if need be: we must announce if the situation is severe – or not 4

5. Advanced EFSA Learning Programme 5 How do we determine severity of the situation? Combination and convergence of findings such as:  Magnitude: No. of individuals/HHs whose lives & livelihoods are potentially at risk  Size of food access or consumption gap  Historical comparisons: comparing current population in severe food insecurity with previous situations  Increase in mortality rate (beyond norm for area)  Acute malnutrition rates  Other indicators?

6. Advanced EFSA Learning Programme 6 The “convergence of evidence” concept Comparing different indicators: a powerful way to determine the severity of a crisis… …particularly when different indicators lead to the same conclusion, show same patterns The difficulty: Multiple sources are used – data only as good as source collecting them

7. Advanced EFSA Learning Programme Estimating the access gap One example  Cost of minimum “nutritious” food basket  Example of East Timor

8. Advanced EFSA Learning Programme Calculating the cost of the minimum food basket…  Average HH size  Food habits and what constitutes a “nutritional food basket” – including main sources of micronutrients  Sources of HHs’ food  Cost of each food item What information will we need to do this?

9. Advanced EFSA Learning Programme Nutritional needs of 7-member family in Dili ENERGYPROTEINFATCALCIUMIRONVIT. AVIT. C Requirements kcalggmg µg RE mg Child <5 1,29025.543.0400939020 Child <5 1,29025.543.0400939020 Child 5-9 1,98048.042.54501640020 Child 10-14 2,21050.042.16002455025 Child 10-14 2,21050.042.16002455025 Lactating mother 2,92069.664.96001785050 Father2,23049.642.54002457030 TOTAL/DAY14,1303203163,4501233,700190 We need now to figure out what food items can cover these nutritional needs

10. Advanced EFSA Learning Programme Minimum cost of nutritious food basket for 7-member family in Dili 12345 Nutritious basket for 7-member family in Dili Daily needs (grams) Monthly needs (kgs) Cost per kg Monthly cost of family basket Yellow maize50015.000.659.75 Cassava1,30039.000.3513.65 Beans60018.000.509.00 Rice1,10033.000.4314.19 Sugar2006.000.754.50 Groundnuts2256.751.006.75 Green leaves1,20036.000.207.20 Tomatoes2507.500.806.00 Vegetable oil1504.501.346.03 Milk549US$ 77.07

11. Advanced EFSA Learning Programme Proxy for Food Access Gap in Dili 11 HHs earning less than US$ 77.00 per month

12. Advanced EFSA Learning Programme Access Gap in Dili = HHs earning less than US$77/month

13. Advanced EFSA Learning Programme Exercise 4.2. The “Minimum Cost Food Basket”: Challenges in Using the Method As a group: consider the Dili Minimum Cost Food Basket example just presented and discuss: What factors do you suppose made this method feasible in Dili? What factors might make this method more challenging? Why? 13

14. Advanced EFSA Learning Programme Consider before calculating the food access deficit: What is the average household size? What are the food habits? Which are the main sources of micronutrients? From which sources do households obtain their food? (relatively easier to calculate a food access gap in urban areas)