1. Overview: directions, forces, challenges Andrew Rogerson Overseas Development Institute

2. Agenda Value of Consultative Process Shape of Aid System and Trends Underlying Forces for Change Criteria for Institutional Reform Voice for Recipient Countries

3. Scope of consultation Value lies in process, not endpoint However, 2005 is big opportunity Focus on multilaterals within aid system What is their value-added? How should they change? What levers do recipients have, need?

4. Shape of Aid System and Trends Volume recovering at last, since 2001 But multilateral 1/3 rd share is fragile Most bilateral aid non-structural Many entrants, no exit: fragmentation More social, less growth orientation More Africa concentration recently

5. Total net flows from DAC countries by type of flow

6. Multilaterals and their prospects Disjointed funding decisions Multi-year cycles (except UN) Banks have own resources Burden-sharing formulas limit ambitions Where will increased aid go? Rise of global thematic funds

7. Governance Issues No overall control, great inertia Conflicting interests within membership Management autonomy varies Limited competition: no exit, many entries Collective action: aid harmonisation? World Bank: dominance by default? Aid objectives: not just poverty+growth

8. Some Forces for Change New objectives (security sector, trade..) Recipients restrict (India) or cannot justify aid (fragile states) Civil Society: lobbyists/critics, issue- politics versus country relationships Big Carrots (IFF), or Big Sticks (IDA grants) may break institutional barriers

9. What criteria to use? Comparative advantage-nice but vague Batteries of indicators (see Oxfam, DRI) Quality of relationship/responsiveness Political horizon, stability Diversifying Risk: harmony or cartel? Transaction costs: cut them or shift them Sovereign control over budget is key

10. Recipient voices Value of contractual partnerships Value of board seat Voting vs. other influence New friends or old enemies? Some donors genuinely listening But no clear messages yet … Can Commonwealth, AIF mediate?