1. The future of aid, 2005- 2010 Setting the scene: trends and forces shaping the aid system

2. Why now? 2005 is decision time, coherent or not: 2005 is decision time, coherent or not: Post-9/11 foreign policies still in flux, Post-9/11 foreign policies still in flux, Impacting the fragile 2002 aid consensus, Impacting the fragile 2002 aid consensus, While new schemes graft onto old system; While new schemes graft onto old system; UK/EU and US can innovate UK/EU and US can innovate

3. Whats up for discussion? The credibility of the Millennium Goals The credibility of the Millennium Goals Should aid double and if so, how; Should aid double and if so, how; Aid if no trade?; Aid if no trade?; Who runs the IMF and World Bank; Who runs the IMF and World Bank; Value-added of EU and UN; Value-added of EU and UN; How to pay for global goods. How to pay for global goods.

4. The aid system today Talking ODA, mainly Talking ODA, mainly Some 75 agencies, $58 billion p.a. Some 75 agencies, $58 billion p.a. Much of it technical, humanitarian Much of it technical, humanitarian No exits and many entries No exits and many entries Weak users, weak owners Weak users, weak owners

5. Four shaping forces 1. Shrinking middle on the demand side 2. Multiple donor objectives 3. Symbiotic relationships with NGOs 4. Institutional barriers to competition

6. Conventional wisdom after Monterrey Consensus Consensus Better, simpler aid Better, simpler aid Predictability Predictability Millennium Goals Millennium Goals Ownership and PRS Ownership and PRS Performance-based Performance-based Achilles Heel Achilles Heel Cost-benefit? Cost-benefit? Short termism Short termism Growth, shelf life Growth, shelf life Conditionality Conditionality Selectivity Selectivity

7. Unfinished Business Aid volume and Absorption Aid volume and Absorption New Tied Aid New Tied Aid Selectivity and Balance Selectivity and Balance Grants versus Loans Grants versus Loans

8. New Wine into old bottles The Millennium Challenge Account: beyond conditionality? The Millennium Challenge Account: beyond conditionality? The Global Fund: chip off the old block? The Global Fund: chip off the old block? The International Financing Facility: opportunity to reshape global aid governance? The International Financing Facility: opportunity to reshape global aid governance?

9. 2010, a snapshot : two sketches among many Poverty +/- Poverty +/- Tied aid +/- Tied aid +/- MDG triumph/ fade MDG triumph/ fade UN, EU, up/down UN, EU, up/down Pivot role of MICs Pivot role of MICs Competition +/- Competition +/- Recipient choice +/- Recipient choice +/- More, less bilaterals More, less bilaterals More, less NGOs More, less NGOs Pivot role of MICs Pivot role of MICs