1. Approaches to Rural Electrification in East Africa: Donors, Projects, Rural Energy Agencies & the Private Sector Mark Hankins Energy for Sustainable Development AFRICA Nairobi Kenya Berkeley Renewable and Appropriate Energy Lab November 2005

2. Sudan Ethiopia Somalia Uganda Kenya Tanzania East Africa and the Horn of Africa 20 years work experience Design of WB GEF PV Program Design of Rural Energy Agency PV Commercialization Decentralized energy supply NGO projects National PV Project NGO Projects Design of Rural Energy Agency PV Training & Infrastructure Pilots for REA PV training, infrastructure, finance & study Mini-grid & wind development Various private sector in rural energy NGO projects PV system design Support to Energy for Rural Transformation PV training & infrastructure NGO projects

3. Rural Energy Access is Extremely Limited Rural Electrification is less than 5% in most sub-Sahara African Countries!!!!!

4. Poverty Backdrop Country% below $1/day GDP per cap (US$, 2001) World Bank ODA (as % of GDP, 2001) Terms of trade (1980= 100) Kenya23.03714.097 Tanzania19.927113.244 Uganda82.224913.825 Ethiopia81.995--- Malawi41.716623 RSA<226200.4---

5. Rural Electricity in East Africa CountryUn- Electrified HHs Grid Size Grid RE Penetrati on Kenya~4 million1100 MW <2% Uganda~3 million320 MW <1% Tanzania~4.5 million450 MW <1% Ethiopia~8.5 million450 MW <3% Eritrea~0.5 million60 MW <3% TOTAL20.5 million2380 MW <3%

6. CountryRE Connections/ Year New PV & BBS Systems/Year Kenya<15,000>60,000 Uganda<8,000>>5,000 Tanzania<20,000>>5,000 Ethiopia<20,000??>>1000?? TOTAL<75,000>70,000 How Are We Doing? Connections/Year Pretty Bad!!!! RE is going backwards

7. Why RE is so Slow in Africa 25% financing 75% Low capacities to pay Dispersed rural populations Lack of power in grid Lack of investment Corruption, bureaucracy, politics, war Approaches do not match need categories Lack of focus (too much “flavor of the month”) Not enough good people in RE???

8. 3 Basic Strategies for RE Grid Extension Micro-Mini Isolated Grid  Hydro  Thermal  Co-Gen  Wind hybrid Dispersed or Isolated Systems  BBS & PV  Gen-Set  Wind, micro-hydro, hybrids, etc

9. Electrification Strategies & Demand Categories TechnologyIndustrialCommercial /SME Institu- tional Consumers and HHs Grid ExtensionVIABLE High Priority Medium Priority NOT VIABLE Low Priority Isolated Grid System Approaches (micro- hydro, generators, etc) High Priority Medium Priority Low Priority Dispersed systems (PV, wind, battery, etc) NOT VIABLE VIABLE?? Medium Priority VIABLE High Priority VIABLE High Priority

10. Non-Electric Energy Needs and Sources Important Sources Wood, residues Charcoal - major environmental issues LPG - modern cooking fuel which could help overcome cooking fuel shortages Kerosene Biogas Etc. Applications Cooking Heating Air conditioning Pumping Milling Refrigeration Etc

11. US$/kWh

12. Commercial Non-Project Electrification Less than 3% have access to grid electricity but spending power is there Cell phone market illustrates market potential $100’s of millions spent on electricity by rural people (not including kerosene)  Small generators  Lead acid batteries (Uganda) $10 per month per battery $1-3 per charge ~200-300,000 HH use Charging industry makes $27M/year  Dry cells (Uganda) $6 per mo per rural HH 94% of HH use ~460 million dry cells/annum @$230M (not possible)

13. Late 1990’s: Paradigm Switch?? Post liberalisation of power sector A new paradigm  Modern energy as driver for economic development  Modern energy supports key social services  Access to modern energy by maximum number of people  Multi-technology approach  Private sector led Replaces “old paradigm”  Grid extension  “A bulb in each house”

14. Energy for Rural Transformation Use modern energy sources to promote productive end-uses such as agro-business, SMEs, and commercial ventures in and near rural areas Increase access to modern energy services in key rural service areas such as health, education, water, communication, etc. Rural Energy Agency/Fund plays facilitating role  stimulates and co-finance viable private sector investments in modern rural energy technologies.  “technology neutral”. All types of energy projects will be considered  RE is private sector-led

15. Energy for Rural Transformation Uganda A number of flagship projects for rural electrification These focus on different technologies and dissemination strategies  Preparation of Kakira Sugar Factory IPP  West Nile Hydro Power Project (World Bank)  Bushenyi & Rukungiri  Kasiizi Hospital Power Project  PV market development Success? Not yet.