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Published byJonah Adams Modified over 9 years ago
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Buenos Aires, September 30th, 2014 Service Planning Improvements, a recent experience in Mexibus III
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Content Field data results Frequency and occupancy Board and alightments Demand / Capacity relationships Financial Aspects Finances of the Infrastructure Concessionaire Finances of the fleet operator Current system situation Currentsystem demand profile Recommendations
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Frequency and Occupancy Demand serviced by Mexibus and other routes during a 16 hours period
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Variation of demand during the day The expansion factor is 7.3 During am peak hour (7-8), 14% of daily demand is serviced During pm peak (20-21), 2% of the daily demand is serviced During 6 and 9, 38% of the demand is serviced During 18 and 21,, more than 34% of the demand is serviced In 6 hours (from a total of 17 hours of operations), almost a 73% of the demand is serviced Frequency and Occupancy
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Demand serviced by Mexibus and others The current fleet in operation has 52 buses, 4 reserve and a maximum frequency of 35 vph in 4 services Tramo crítico
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Total frequencies along the day for the 4 services 52 buses in operation 4 reserve 56 total fleet
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Ascensos y descensos Average profile for local service bus Service at capacity during peak. Renovation index in the west bound: 1.34 Average trip distance: 13.4 km. Maximum load: 136 passengers Direction: 84% westbound
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Express service 1 Service saturated during peak. Renovation index westbound: 1.44 Average trip distance: 12.5 km. Maximum load per bus: 158 pasajeros Direction: 89% westbound
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Express service 2 Service at capacity Renovation index westbound: 1.11 Average trip distance: 16.2 km. Maximum load: 143 passengers Direction: 85% westbound
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Mexibus Remanentes
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Current operation Operation program for each service
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Current operation and capacity At 90% load, the system offers 5,040 places at peak frequency
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Demand / capacity, current Current Capacity of Mexibús III
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Approaching Pantitlán Terminal
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Financial aspects Original financial model of the infrastructure concessionaire: Total investment: 540 millions of pesos, 82% during the first year, investments for 5 years Projected Demand: 205 thousand passengers per day Fare: 7 pesos Concession period: 25 years Revenue as a % of fare collection: 23.7% Other revenue (advertising, etc.): 1,725,000 pesos 7 year, during the first year Operating costs: 58 + million pesos yearly Demand growth rate:1% anual Net present value: 627.9 millions pesos
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Sensibility analysis of concessionaire original financial model: Demand: between 70 and 140 thousand per day Fare: 6 pesos Financial aspects prior to implementation
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Current financial situation Revenue and expenses during a typical day: Demand: 70 thousand passengers Fare: 6 pesos Current operation The service plan must change, no money is left to pay other concessionaires.
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Financial aspects prior to implementation Financial model of the fleet operator: 4 Demand Scenarios
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Financial model of the fleet operator: A table for each alternative One local service and 3 express services Assumption: Critical volume approximately the sum of the critical volume of each service Financial aspects prior to implementation
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Analysis of demand assumptions in the original business plan of the fleet operator: Characteristics of current demanden base demanda actual: 14% of demand takes place in the peak hour Renovation index in the westbound direction between 1.11 and 1.44 Average trip length westbound: between 12.5 and 16.2 km. Direction: between 84 and 89% westbound, average 86% There is a large difference between demand assumptions of the business plan and current demand Errors in inancial aspects prior to implementation
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Recommendations Functional design and operation: A new service plan: Trunk services long and short, local, semi express - limited and express services Direct services Delay solutions at Pantitlán terminal Negotiations with other operators
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New service plan Local, limited and express services 67
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Direct services Direct services with buses with doors on both sides: Auxiliar Peñon – Bordo Auxiliar Chimalhuacán 31
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Delay at terminal Alternative 1: Trazo Actual de salida Pantitlán de Mexibús III Trazo Propuesto de llegada a paradero Pantitlán de Mexibús III Trazo Actual de llegada Pantitlán de Mexibús III Trazo de Puente Av. Chimalhuacán – Río Churubusco
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Alternative 2: Trazo Actual de salida Pantitlán de Mexibús III Trazo Propuesto de llegada a paradero Pantitlán de Mexibús III Trazo Actual de llegada Pantitlán de Mexibús III Trazo de Puente Av. Chimalhuacán – Río Churubusco Delay at terminal
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Route restructuring and negotiations Feeder system design and negotiations
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