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Buenos Aires, September 30th, 2014 Service Planning Improvements, a recent experience in Mexibus III.

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Presentation on theme: "Buenos Aires, September 30th, 2014 Service Planning Improvements, a recent experience in Mexibus III."— Presentation transcript:

1 Buenos Aires, September 30th, 2014 Service Planning Improvements, a recent experience in Mexibus III

2 Content Field data results Frequency and occupancy Board and alightments Demand / Capacity relationships Financial Aspects Finances of the Infrastructure Concessionaire Finances of the fleet operator Current system situation Currentsystem demand profile Recommendations

3 Frequency and Occupancy Demand serviced by Mexibus and other routes during a 16 hours period

4 Variation of demand during the day The expansion factor is 7.3 During am peak hour (7-8), 14% of daily demand is serviced During pm peak (20-21), 2% of the daily demand is serviced During 6 and 9, 38% of the demand is serviced During 18 and 21,, more than 34% of the demand is serviced In 6 hours (from a total of 17 hours of operations), almost a 73% of the demand is serviced Frequency and Occupancy

5 Demand serviced by Mexibus and others The current fleet in operation has 52 buses, 4 reserve and a maximum frequency of 35 vph in 4 services Tramo crítico

6 Total frequencies along the day for the 4 services 52 buses in operation 4 reserve 56 total fleet

7 Ascensos y descensos Average profile for local service bus Service at capacity during peak. Renovation index in the west bound: 1.34 Average trip distance: 13.4 km. Maximum load: 136 passengers Direction: 84% westbound

8 Express service 1 Service saturated during peak. Renovation index westbound: 1.44 Average trip distance: 12.5 km. Maximum load per bus: 158 pasajeros Direction: 89% westbound

9 Express service 2 Service at capacity Renovation index westbound: 1.11 Average trip distance: 16.2 km. Maximum load: 143 passengers Direction: 85% westbound

10 Mexibus Remanentes

11 Current operation Operation program for each service

12 Current operation and capacity At 90% load, the system offers 5,040 places at peak frequency

13 Demand / capacity, current Current Capacity of Mexibús III

14 Approaching Pantitlán Terminal

15 Financial aspects Original financial model of the infrastructure concessionaire: Total investment: 540 millions of pesos, 82% during the first year, investments for 5 years Projected Demand: 205 thousand passengers per day Fare: 7 pesos Concession period: 25 years Revenue as a % of fare collection: 23.7% Other revenue (advertising, etc.): 1,725,000 pesos 7 year, during the first year Operating costs: 58 + million pesos yearly Demand growth rate:1% anual Net present value: 627.9 millions pesos

16 Sensibility analysis of concessionaire original financial model: Demand: between 70 and 140 thousand per day Fare: 6 pesos Financial aspects prior to implementation

17 Current financial situation Revenue and expenses during a typical day: Demand: 70 thousand passengers Fare: 6 pesos Current operation The service plan must change, no money is left to pay other concessionaires.

18 Financial aspects prior to implementation Financial model of the fleet operator: 4 Demand Scenarios

19 Financial model of the fleet operator: A table for each alternative One local service and 3 express services Assumption: Critical volume approximately the sum of the critical volume of each service Financial aspects prior to implementation

20 Analysis of demand assumptions in the original business plan of the fleet operator: Characteristics of current demanden base demanda actual: 14% of demand takes place in the peak hour Renovation index in the westbound direction between 1.11 and 1.44 Average trip length westbound: between 12.5 and 16.2 km. Direction: between 84 and 89% westbound, average 86% There is a large difference between demand assumptions of the business plan and current demand Errors in inancial aspects prior to implementation

21 Recommendations Functional design and operation: A new service plan: Trunk services long and short, local, semi express - limited and express services Direct services Delay solutions at Pantitlán terminal Negotiations with other operators

22 New service plan Local, limited and express services 67

23 Direct services Direct services with buses with doors on both sides: Auxiliar Peñon – Bordo Auxiliar Chimalhuacán 31

24 Delay at terminal Alternative 1: Trazo Actual de salida Pantitlán de Mexibús III Trazo Propuesto de llegada a paradero Pantitlán de Mexibús III Trazo Actual de llegada Pantitlán de Mexibús III Trazo de Puente Av. Chimalhuacán – Río Churubusco

25 Alternative 2: Trazo Actual de salida Pantitlán de Mexibús III Trazo Propuesto de llegada a paradero Pantitlán de Mexibús III Trazo Actual de llegada Pantitlán de Mexibús III Trazo de Puente Av. Chimalhuacán – Río Churubusco Delay at terminal

26 Route restructuring and negotiations Feeder system design and negotiations


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