1. White Flight in the West?: Explaining the persistence of white-minority segregation Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College, University of London e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uke.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk; twitter: @epkaufm

2. White Flight?

4. Manchester 1991-2001 London 1991-2001

5. USA 1970-2000 Source: data from Card Mas & Rothstein 2008 Source: Andersson Hammarstedt Neuman 2012

7. White Flight?: Existing evidence base USA: white preference effects (Crowder & South, 2000); whites prefer whiter areas in showcard studies (Charles 2002; Clark 2006) Europe: No ‘native flight’ in France (Rathelot & Safi 2013); White avoidance (Brama, 2006) ; As in USA, whites prefer whiter areas (van Londen 2012) UK: No white flight (Catney & Simpson, 2010)

8. Data Uses 18 waves of BHPS (n=192171 person yrs) and waves 1-3 of Understanding Society (40,000 per yr) Attached to geo-referenced data at ward-level (BHPS linearly interpolated using 1991/2001/2011 census) to attach ward minority population, deprivation and population density. Ward-level diversity measured as either % minority, or by quintiles of minority population

9. Predicted Ward Minority Change among Inter-ward Movers, 1991-2011 (BHPS/UKHLS) % Ethnic Minority in Ward a year ago % Change in Ethnic Minorities in Ward

11. Predicted Probability of Move Away from Diversity, Inter-ward Movers, 2001-11 (ONS LS) Most Diverse Ward Whitest ward Probability of move to less diverse ward quintile

12. Understanding Society Data 2009-12 Significant sample of far right voters (UKIP, BNP, Other, N = 2,226), in addition to Tory voters to proxy for anti-diversity orientation

13. Understanding Society Larger sample size (40k v 10k) More attitudinal questions pertaining to neighbourhood Period of rise of UKIP and BNP ‘Right’ defined as UKIP+BNP+Conservatives, proxy for attitude to diversity among whites Right x % minorities interaction

14. White Flight?: Yougov-ESRC-BBK Survey, August 2013 Moved To Whiter Ward past 10 yrs Moved To More Diverse Ward past 10 yrsSample Not White British53%47%47 White British62%38%239 Total60%40%286

15. Comfort with spouse of different race among ward movers, White British only (Yougov/ESRC survey) To WhiterTo Diverse Sample very comfortable61%39%83 fairly comfortable67%33%33 neither comfortable n57%43%46 fairly uncomfortable64%36%11 very uncomfortable76%24%25 don't know58%42%24 Total63%37%222

16. Local Council Wards in the UK have a population of about 10,000 to 30,000 people. Have you moved Local Council Ward to live somewhere new at any time in the past ten years? – No 66.24% (1085) – Yes 28.39% (465) – Don’t know 5.37% (88) As far as you know, did the last Local Council Ward in which you lived have…? – More people from an ethnic minority background than the ward I now live in now 37.4% (174) – Fewer people from an ethnic minority background than the ward I now live in now 22.8% (106) – About the same number of people from an ethnic minority background than the ward I now live in now 23.2% (108) – Don’t know 16.6% (77)

19. Cultural Amenities not Ethnocentrism? “If the church bulletin board is where people advertise rooms for rent, blacks will rent rooms from blacks and whites from whites because of a communication system…correlated with color” – Thomas Schelling 1978 White British family/friend/association networks and minority networks differ in England, affecting where people relocate once they decide to move Cultural amenities (food, recreation, religion) are also correlated with ethnic composition

20. Unconscious Segregation I: Social Ties Source: UKHLS 2009-12

21. Unconscious Segregation II: Amenities Source: Citizenship Surveys 2007-11

22. Conclusion Whites in Britain do choose whiter areas to move to White liberals who like diversity do not move to more diverse areas than white conservatives Difficult to support ‘white flight’ thesis for Britain Segregation reproduced ‘unconsciously’ through complex effects (amenities, family, status) OR Could be that pro-immigration whites are subconsciously as ethnocentric as anti-immigration whites

23. White Flight in the West?: Explaining the persistence of white-minority segregation Eric Kaufmann Birkbeck College, University of London e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uke.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk; twitter: @epkaufm