1. October 29, 2012 Tom Moore Air Quality Program Manager Western Governors’ Association WESTAR Council Meeting

2. WRAP regional technical support NAAQS Implementation and Maintenance Data for future infrastructure and transport SIPs Exceptional Events Develop technical support data and analysis protocols Implementation of Regional Haze SIPs Identify and execute technical work needed for 2018 plans Needs of sub-regional groups of states Currently oil and gas Similar efforts in past

3. Applying Data from Western Regional Technical Studies Leveraged studies address both regulatory planning needs and fill gaps where data are needed Tracking key western source categories / source areas Analysis of Ozone and PM background and transport during elevated episodes Background data for SIP planning Includes impacts of fire on ozone Better oil & gas, fire, biogenics emissions data Improves assessment of natural vs. anthropogenic contributions 3

4. Coordination on Analysis and Planning WRAP working as regional technical center Facilitate communication – forum for discussion Interconnected series of regional technical projects Management of ongoing emissions and modeling studies Reviewed / coordinated with federal agencies, states, and locals Coordinated through WESTAR Planning and Technical Committees to identify needs and SIP applications 4

5. Implementing a regional modeling framework West-Wide Jumpstart Air Quality Modeling Study (funding by State of NM, BP, and BLM national air program) Regional results provide data and context for state and federal planning Most current transport and background studies Meteorological and emissions modeling Regionally consistent, High resolution, Comprehensive Photochemical modeling 2008 base case model performance evaluation with Ozone / PM source apportionment Improve awareness of Study Increase understanding of elements Toward goal of providing a regional modeling framework Draft Modeling Plan and Source Apportionment Design Plan – released last week for month-long comment period 5

6. WestJumpAQMS Area 6

7. CAMx Source Apportionment Modeling Regional Ozone Source Apportionment – 2 types Type 1 - Anthropogenic vs. Natural contributions Type 2 - Ozone formation potential, all sources, including Natural Particulate Source Apportionment Sulfate Nitrate Ammonium Primary PM (carbon and dust) 2 tiers of Source Apportionment Modeling

8. Ozone Source Apportionment – (Type 1, as an example) Ozone Season Western State Source Regions 2 Source Categories Anthropogenic Natural

9. Initial Source Apportionment Modeling Ozone from State Regions by Anthropogenic-Natural categories Just described Ozone formation potential from all sources, including Natural 1 Source Region & Anthropogenic-Natural categories Examine VOC-limited vs. NO X -limited Ozone Formation Particulate from State Regions by Anthropogenic-Natural categories Like first Ozone type above, only for PM chemical species 2 nd tier of additional apportionment with more source categories and/or sub-state spatial regions possible

10. On-Line Source Apportionment Visualization Tool Source Apportionment modeling produces lots of information Extract key information at sites for on-line visualization tool AQS, IMPROVE, etc. Allow users to drill down into Source Apportionment results for sites and sources of interest CENRAP Visualization Tool for Regional Haze planning - example CAMx PSAT 36 km CONUS State-specific PM 2002 / 18 Visibility impacts at Class I areas Example – Rocky Mountain National Park

11. Example non-WestJumpAQMS work - 2018 Worst Visibility at Rocky Mountain NP Ranked Contributions by Source Region and Category

12. Tracking and Managing Smoke Significant impacts to both local and regional air quality Large summer wildfires Prescribed and agricultural burns in spring and fall States & tribes manage both planned burns & wildfire impacts FLM Joint Fire Science Program project enables continuing operation of WRAP’s Fire Emissions Tracking System (http://www.wrapfets.org/)http://www.wrapfets.org/ Used daily by western states, tribes, and federal agencies to track planned fire and manage smoke FETS Used by states and OAQPS to evaluate 2008 NEI Fire activity and emissions data being sent to EPA for 2011 NEI 12

14. DEASCO 3 project - purpose & goals Assess fire’s impact on elevated ozone episodes with retrospective studies Studies of fire and ozone in 2002 through 2008 Outcomes Support future collaborative FLM-state ozone air quality planning Develop “lessons learned”, basic analysis rules for fire-ozone episodes, and online tools for FLM-state air quality planning Prepare and implement planning-grade fire emissions inventories in FETS suitable for SIP work by states & FLMs Collaboration involving EPA western RO and FLM staff, leverages WestJumpAQMS Products for FLMs and states to use in SIP process and Exceptional Events demonstrations

15. Fire Activity Data (acres/day) LoadingMoisture Emissions Model distribute emissions Chemical Profiles loft emissions FETS DEASCO 3

16. DEASCO 3 – questions to be tested Technical Does smoke from fire contribute to background concentrations of Ozone across large areas of the U.S.? To what degree does fire/smoke management affect formation of Ozone? When, where, and how much does fire cause/contribute to Ozone exceedances? Policy/Planning What improved quantitative information will help FLMs assess the use of smoke management techniques to address nonattainment issues? What information is needed in the Online Tool to help FLMs to be more effective in air quality planning processes?

17. WestJump AQMS 2008 NEIv2 (USFS collaboration) Leveraging DEASCO 3 Improved AQ Planning PMDETAIL Exceptional Event applications

18. Regional Haze: Reasonable Progress Reports (remaining EPA grant funds for contractor support) WRAP producing a comprehensive, regionally-consistent technical report Regional, state, and Class I area reports Technical analyses required by Regional Haze Rule Western states will use as a common basis in preparing individual SIP revisions SIP revisions due 2013-15 WRAP providing western 2008 emissions data States will use to evaluate changes in monitored visibility Project timeframe: Completion in 2012 18

19. Oil & Gas: Emissions Inventories and Control Analysis (funding by Western Energy Alliance, EPA, States of WY and ND, BLM) Key source for Ozone / PM standards, & Regional Haze Exploration and production activity continue to increase Data in use current OAQPS national & western modeling work Significant funding and involvement by industry Open review and discussion process with all interested stakeholders Linkages WestJumpAQMS 3-State Air Quality Study New project funded by BLM MT-Dakotas office 2011 base & projection years’ EI for Williston & Montana Great Plains Basins 19

20. Federal Leadership Forum / 3-State Air Quality Study (funded by BLM, USFS, EPA, others in-kind) Steering committee of WY, CO, UT, EPA, BLM, NPS, and USFS Implementation of 3-State and national MOUs - objectives: Facilitate more complete and consistent air quality analysis for NEPA and other air quality decisions Improve timeliness Reduce duplication of air quality analyses resulting in lower costs Improve collaboration Planning for air quality impacts of energy development Ozone focus, additional rural monitoring stations in oil & gas basins Wintertime ozone nonattainment areas Integrates results from WestJumpAQMS and Oil & Gas projects Data warehouse to support future air quality modeling and other analyses 20

21. Future 3-State Air Quality Study work planned Workplan through 2014 approved in early October Completes warehouse Activities to be completed by late 2012 – early 2013 – Data integration—WestJumpAQMS and other datasets from cooperators – Technical Committee to develop data acceptance criteria – Monitoring – ongoing – Modeling-Emissions improvement work with Warehouse staff Remainder of 2013 – Modeling of Base Case and Future Case – Secure outside funding for ongoing monitoring / warehouse O&M and modeling updates

22. WestJumpAQMS Schedule Lengthy delay while waiting for 2008 NEIV2.0 Products - WRAP webpage: http://www.wrapair2.org/West JumpAQMS.aspx http://www.wrapair2.org/West JumpAQMS.aspx 13 Emissions Memos Various Stages Emissions modeling complete October 2012 Draft Modeling Protocol & Source Apportionment Design Review and comment October – November 2012 2008 Base Case Modeling November - December 2012 Source Apportionment January - March 2013 Final Report March – May 2013

23. WestJumpAQMS - key next steps Need feedback from states, feds, others on: Source Apportionment approach and thoughts about representing the results, and Locations for extracting Source Apportionment results, if results beyond monitoring sites are wanted

24. Next Steps for WRAP Continue regional analysis and planning support activities Potential opportunity for Western regional analysis of fire and dust exceptional events: Protocol to follow in conducting analysis Determine incremental contribution by event, beyond “nominal” condition Provide results to state and federal air programs to assist in Exceptional Events flagging and air planning activities Track background and transport 24