1. Simulated Stratospheric Temperature Trends SPARC Temperature Trends Meeting: April 13, 2007 Washington DC.

2. Coupled Chemistry Climate Model Simulations of Stratospheric Temperature J. Austin, P. Forster, J. Wilson, S. Bekki, N. Butchard, M. Chipperfield, C. Claud, R.Garcia, N. Gellett, M. Giorgetta, P. Keckhut, D. Kinnison, U. Langematz, E. Manzini, C. Mears, A. Miller, T. Nagasima, J. Nash, S. Pwosn, W.J. Randel., E. Rozanov, T.G.Shepherd, K. Shibata, K.P. Shine, D. Seidel, H. Struthers, D. Thompson, and S. Yoden Manuscript in preparation:

3. AMTRAC 3 x 1960-2004 CCSRNIES 1980-2004 CMAM 1960-2004 GEOSCCM 1960-2003 LMDZepro 1979-1999 MAECHAM-4CHEM 1980-1999 MRI 1980-2004 SOCOL 1980-2004 UMETRAC 1980-1999 UMSLIMCAT 1980-1999 WACCM 3 x 1950-2003 Participating Models: CCMval model intercomparison Eyring et al. 2006: Assessment of temperature, trace species and ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past, J. Geophys. Res. 111, D22308, doi:10.0129/2006JD007327.

4. A(t)= a o + a 1 t + a 2 + a 3 F 10.7 + (t) Averaged Monthly fields: A(t) is aerosol surface area: (tropics at 60hPa)

5. Fig. 1: Annually & Globally Averaged Temperature --- UKMO Data Assimilation

9. Annually-averaged trends: 1960-1979 K/decade 0.25 K contour interval Shading: 95% confidence level

10. Annually-averaged trends: 1980-1999

12. Fig. 5 Global, Annual Averaged Temperature Anomaly (referenced to 1980)

13. Vertically-Weighted Global Average Temperature Fig. 6

14. - MSU/SSU (1980-1997) Fig. 7

15. Solar Cycle 0.5 K/100 units 10.7 cm flux 0.7 K for solar Aerosols Surface area density: Typical eruption: 1.5e-7 cm 2 /cm 3 1 K

16. Figure 9 Time Series of Arctic Temperatures 60-90°N (Feb-April) 11 year running avg.

17. Arctic Temperature Trends

18. Time Series of Antarctic Temperatures 60-90°S (Sept-Nov) 11 year running avg.

19. Antarctic Temperature Trends