1. 8th meeting of the TFEIP’s projections expert panel, 15th May 2012 Bern, Switzerland. Emissions projections reported under the LRTAP convention and EEA countries visibility in global emission scenario studies. John van Aardenne (EEA). Acknowledgements: LRTAP: Elisabeth Kampel and Melanie Tista (UBA-Vienna), Martin Adams (EEA) ETC-ACM scenario study: A. Colette, S. Schucht, J.-C. Péré, B. Bessagnet, L. Rouïl: Institut National de l’Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), France and R. Koelemeijer, H. Eerens, K. Van Velze: Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL), the Netherlands and G. Mellios: EMISIA, Greece

2. Overview A.Emission projections in the draft EU LRTAP emission inventory report 1990-2010 Reporting requirements on projections Projections in the 2012 EU LRTAP emission inventory report Overview on trends, gaps Future role of projections expert panel B. Brief presentation of the ETC-ACM technical report ”Cobenefits of climate and air pollution regulations” that includes an evaluation of representation/visibility of EU-EEA countries in global emission scenarios. (as presented in 7th meeting of projections expert panel) Acknowledgements: LRTAP: Elisabeth Kampel and Melanie Tista (UBA-Vienna), Martin Adams (EEA) ETC-ACM scenario study: A. Colette, S. Schucht, J.-C. Péré, B. Bessagnet, L. Rouïl: (INERIS), and R. Koelemeijer, H. Eerens, K. Van Velze (PBL), and G. Mellios: EMISIA

3. Reporting requirements on projections From ECE/EB.AIR/97 27 January 2009 (reporting guidelines) 36. Parties to the Gothenburg Protocol shall report their latest available projections at least every five years, and provide any updated projections annually by 15 February, for the years 2010, 2015, 2020, 2030 and 2050. Parties to the Convention that are not Parties to the Protocol are also strongly encouraged to provide this information. (Parties are not required to report projections for those years in which emissions data are reported as part of the inventory reporting specified in paragraph 29) 37. Projected emissions for sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), ammonia (NH3), particulate matter-10 (PM10), PM2.5 and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) should be reported using table IV.2a of annex IV to these Guidelines. Parties should complete the tables at the requested level of aggregation. Where values for individual categories or aggregated NFR categories are not available, the notation keys defined in section II.C of annex I to these Guidelines should be used. 38. Quantitative information on parameters underlying emission projections should be reported using the templates set out in table IV.2b of annex IV to these Guidelines. These parameters should be reported for the projection target year and the historic year chosen as the starting year for the projections.

4. Projections in the 2012 EU LRTAP emission inventory report Information from: Draft European Union emission inventory report 1990–2010 under the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP) as submitted for EIONET review. “Under the reporting process to the LRTAP Convention, some Member States have submitted emission projections for the year 2015 and up to 2050 in some cases. Submitted data are available in Annex E to this report. This report does not provide further detailed analysis of projections reported by the countries in relation to the emission ceilings for 2010 in the Gothenburg Protocol to the LRTAP Convention” The next slides present an overview and short analysis of the available projections data....... Please note: Numbers reflect data available until March 09, 2012 Presentation´s aim is to inform, learn and discuss not to ”judge”

5. NOx projections submitted by Member States (status March 2012) NO x (Gg)Gothenburg CeilingEmissions 2010 WM 20102015202020302050 Austria107 189 199 160 130 122 0 Belgium181 221 0 202 173 0 0 Bulgaria266 115 0 247 0 0 Cyprus23 18 17 13 0 0 Czech Republic286 251 0 0 0 0 0 Denmark127 129 105 85 70 0 Estonia 37 39 36 0 0 0 Finland170 172 0 0 121 0 101 France8601 080 848 620 0 0 Germany10811 3231 3261 1821 013 0 0 Greece344 322 0 338 290 0 0 Hungary198 162 0 172 173 192 0 Ireland65 76 0 0 0 0 0 Italy1000 963 0 0 0 0 0 Latvia84 34 0 45 46 0 0 Lithuania110 58 0 34 23 0 0 Luxembourg11 21 0 0 0 0 0 Malta 8 0 0 0 0 0 Netherlands266 276 264 230 185 161 0 Poland879 867 827 0 0 0 0 Portugal260 180 0 0 0 0 0 Romania437 272 236 198 170 371 0 Slovakia130 89 83 71 79 84 Slovenia45 49 46 35 25 0 Spain847 974 0 930 848 0 0 Sweden148 161 0 118 92 82 0 United Kingdom11811 106 935 731 0 0 One or more years in projections are based on 2010 submitted data One or more years in projections are based on 2011 submitted data

6. NMVOC projections submitted by Member States (status March 2012) NMVOC (Gg)Gothenburg CeilingEmissions 2010 WM 20102015202020302050 Austria159 133 159 164 172 189 0 Belgium144 105 0 110 112 0 0 Bulgaria185 91 0 175 0 0 Cyprus14 11 10 8 0 0 Czech Republic220 148 0 0 0 0 0 Denmark85 86 76 70 64 0 Estonia 38 41 42 0 0 0 Finland130 117 0 0 82 0 74 France1100 852 643 594 0 0 Germany9951 0531 0521 0921 073 0 0 Greece261 184 0 0 103 0 0 Hungary137 109 0 133 137 157 0 Ireland55 45 0 0 0 0 0 Italy11591 080 0 0 0 0 0 Latvia136 65 0 53 51 0 0 Lithuania92 69 0 49 29 0 0 Luxembourg9 9 0 0 0 0 0 Malta 3 0 0 0 0 0 Netherlands191 151 144 146 149 162 0 Poland800 662 603 0 0 0 0 Portugal202 174 0 0 0 0 0 Romania523 444 414 372 339 362 0 Slovakia140 62 75 76 77 78 Slovenia40 35 29 28 27 0 Spain669 695 0 676 663 0 0 Sweden241 197 0 153 139 128 0 United Kingdom1200 789 776 729 0 0 One or more years in projections are based on 2010 submitted data One or more years in projections are based on 2011 submitted data

7. SOx projections submitted by Member States (status March 2012) SO x (Gg)Gothenburg CeilingEmissions 2010 WM 20102015202020302050 Austria39 19 21 22 0 Belgium106 67 0 72 73 0 0 Bulgaria856 387 0 836 0 0 Cyprus39 22 20 7 0 0 Czech Republic283 173 0 0 0 0 0 Denmark55 14 15 16 0 Estonia 83 80 43 0 0 0 Finland116 68 0 0 76 0 65 France400 262 251 195 0 0 Germany550 449 451 449 402 0 0 Greece546 264 0 0 137 0 0 Hungary550 32 0 61 59 0 Ireland42 26 0 0 0 0 0 Italy500 210 0 0 0 0 0 Latvia107 3 0 6 6 0 0 Lithuania145 38 0 37 20 0 0 Luxembourg4 2 0 0 0 0 0 Malta 8 0 0 0 0 0 Netherlands50 34 42 45 46 45 0 Poland1397 974 994 0 0 0 0 Portugal170 68 0 0 0 0 0 Romania918 372 415 161 149 830 0 Slovakia110 69 61 29 30 31 Slovenia27 10 13 11 9 0 Spain774 483 0 439 436 0 0 Sweden67 34 0 29 28 29 0 United Kingdom625 406 371 292 0 0 One or more years in projections are based on 2010 submitted data One or more years in projections are based on 2011 submitted data

8. NH3 projections submitted by Member States (status March 2012) NH 3 (Gg)Gothenburg CeilingEmissions 2010 WM 20102015202020302050 Austria66 62 61 62 0 Belgium74 69 0 67 0 0 Bulgaria108 51 0 108 0 0 Cyprus9 5 5 5 5 0 0 Czech Republic101 69 0 0 0 0 0 Denmark69 75 63 58 55 0 Estonia 10 9 7 0 0 0 Finland31 37 0 0 36 37 38 France780 645 542 463 0 0 Germany550 548 547 550 0 0 Greece73 64 0 0 63 0 0 Hungary90 65 0 83 80 74 0 Ireland116 106 0 0 0 0 0 Italy419 379 0 0 0 0 0 Latvia44 17 0 14 0 0 Lithuania84 30 0 38 23 0 0 Luxembourg7 4 0 0 0 0 0 Malta 2 0 0 0 0 0 Netherlands128 122 131 122 118 119 0 Poland468 271 284 0 0 0 0 Portugal108 48 0 0 0 0 0 Romania210 161 184 179 173 218 0 Slovakia39 24 25 24 23 Slovenia20 17 18 19 0 Spain353 371 0 331 321 0 0 Sweden57 52 0 44 41 42 0 United Kingdom297 284 272 285 0 0 One or more years in projections are based on 2010 submitted data One or more years in projections are based on 2011 submitted data

9. PM10 projections submitted by Member States (status March 2012) PM 10 (Gg) Emissions 2010 WM 20102015202020302050 Austria 35 0 0 0 0 0 Belgium 24 0 0 0 0 0 Bulgaria 41 0 0 0 0 0 Cyprus 3 3 3 3 0 0 Czech Republic 37 0 0 0 0 0 Denmark 32 26 23 20 0 Estonia 32 17 0 0 0 Finland 55 0 0 32 0 30 France 367 0 0 0 0 0 Germany 193 182 171 0 0 Greece 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hungary 46 0 35 37 0 Ireland 13 0 0 0 0 0 Italy 202 0 0 0 0 0 Latvia 33 0 0 0 0 0 Lithuania 13 0 14 13 0 0 Luxembourg NE 0 0 0 0 0 Malta 1 0 0 0 0 0 Netherlands 29 30 29 0 Poland 279 0 0 0 0 0 Portugal 70 0 0 0 0 0 Romania 135 0 0 0 0 0 Slovakia 30 33 34 38 Slovenia 20 13 12 11 10 0 Spain 112 0 115 118 0 0 Sweden 44 0 38 35 0 United Kingdom 114 106 104 0 0 One or more years in projections are based on 2010 submitted data One or more years in projections are based on 2011 submitted data

10. PM2.5 projections submitted by Member States (status March 2012) PM 2.5 (Gg) Emissions 2010 WM 20102015202020302050 Austria 0 0 0 0 0 0 Belgium 0 0 0 0 0 0 Bulgaria 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cyprus 2 2 2 0 0 0 Czech Republic 0 0 0 0 0 0 Denmark 26 20 17 14 0 0 Estonia 15 0 0 0 0 Finland 0 0 23 0 21 0 France 255 232 210 0 0 0 Germany 111 100 90 0 0 0 Greece 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hungary 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0 Italy 0 0 0 0 0 0 Latvia 0 13 12 0 0 0 Lithuania 0 10 0 0 0 Luxembourg 0 0 0 0 0 0 Malta 0 0 0 0 0 0 Netherlands 15 14 13 0 0 Poland 0 0 0 0 0 0 Portugal 0 0 0 0 0 0 Romania 0 0 0 0 0 0 Slovakia 27 28 29 32 27 Slovenia 10 9 8 6 0 Spain 0 82 83 0 0 0 Sweden 0 26 24 23 0 0 United Kingdom 67 59 57 0 0 0 One or more years in projections are based on 2010 submitted data One or more years in projections are based on 2011 submitted data

11. Some reflections on these projections Many gaps...... Insufficient information to combine projections and perform analysis at the EU27 level Sometimes 2010 inventory data <> 2010 data in Table 2A_WM (projections) Ceilings not met in 2010 sometimes also not met in future years Ceilings met in 2010 sometimes exceeded after 2010 etc.... How to reflect and (if needed) how to act under the TFEIP’s projections expert panel to support countries and improve their projections.

12. Evaluation of low carbon scenarios and inclusion of air pollutant emissions

13. Comparison of GHG emissions

16. Comparison of air pollutant emissions