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© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft © 2009 Munich Reinsurance Company NatCatSERVICE The loss data base for natural catastrophes Petra Löw.

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Presentation on theme: "© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft © 2009 Munich Reinsurance Company NatCatSERVICE The loss data base for natural catastrophes Petra Löw."— Presentation transcript:

1 © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft © 2009 Munich Reinsurance Company NatCatSERVICE The loss data base for natural catastrophes Petra Löw

2 Natural catastrophes in Europe* 1980 – 2009 Number of events Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Meteorological events (Storm) Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption) © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 Number *Countries defined by EEA NatCatSERVICE

3 Natural catastrophes in Europe* 1980 – 2009 Overall and insured losses US$bn Overall losses (in 2009 values)Insured losses (in 2009 values) *Countries defined by EEA NatCatSERVICE © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010

4 Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Meteorological events (Storm) Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption) 3,500 Loss events 86,000 Fatalities Overall losses* US$ 375bn Insured losses* US$ 105bn *in 2009 values *in Werten von 2009 Natural catastrophes in Europe* 1980 – 2009 Percentage distribution worldwide *in 2009 values *Countries defined by EEA NatCatSERVICE

5 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 ContinentNumber of eventsFatalitiesOverall losses US$ m Insured losses US $ m Africa78730375- America31286522.00012.000 Asia3007.98017.0001.500 Australia/Oceania767702.070950 Europe12994012.5006.000 14% 6% 29%34% 9% Global natural catastrophes 2009 Percentage distribution of events per continent NatCatSERVICE

6 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 71% ContinentNumber of eventsFatalitiesOverall losses US$ m Insured losses US $ m Africa78730375- America31286522.00012.000 Asia3007.98017.0001.500 Australia/Oceania767702.070950 Europe12994012.5006.000 6% 3% 8% 5% 7% Global natural catastrophes 2009 Percentage distribution of fatalities per continent NatCatSERVICE

7 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 23% 31% 40% ContinentNumber of eventsFatalitiesOverall losses US$ m Insured losses US $ m Africa78730375- America31286522.00012.000 Asia3007.98017.0001.500 Australia/Oceania767702.070950 Europe12994012.5006.000 1% 4% Global natural catastrophes 2009 Percentage distribution of overall losses per continent NatCatSERVICE

8 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 60% 28% ContinentNumber of eventsFatalitiesOverall losses US$ m Insured losses US $ m Africa78730375- America31286522.00012.000 Asia3007.98017.0001.500 Australia/Oceania767702.070950 Europe12994012.5006.000 5% 7% Global natural catastrophes 2009 Percentage distribution of insured losses per continent NatCatSERVICE

9 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 Definition - Breakdown into catastrophe categories Catastrophe classOverall lossesand/or fatalities Loss profile1980s*1990s*2000 – 2008* 0Natural eventNo property damage---none 1Small-scale loss eventSmall-scale property damage ---1-9 2Moderate loss eventModerate property and structural damage ---> 10 3Severe catastropheSevere property, infrastructure and structural damage US$ >25mUS$ > 40mUS$ > 50m> 20 4Major catastropheMajor property, infrastructure and structural damage US$ > 85mUS$ > 160mUS$ > 200m> 100 5Devastating catastrophe Devastating losses within the affected region US$ > 275mUS$ > 400mUS$ > 500m> 500 6Great natural catastrophe „GREAT disaster“ Region’s ability to help itself clearly overtaxed, interregional/international assistance necessary, thousands of fatalities and/or hundreds of thousands homeless, substantial economic losses (UN definition). Insured losses reach exceptional orders of magnitude. * Losses adjusted to the decade average. NatCatSERVICE

10 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 Natural catastrophes in Europe 2009 Catastrophe category 0 NatCatSERVICE Cat. categoryNumber of eventsCat. categoryNumber of events 0 7 1 42 4 6 2 57 5 5 3 14 6 -

11 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 Geo Risks Research Department The loss data base for natural catastrophes NatCatSERVICE

12 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 YearDevelopment 1974Systematic buildup of a global natural hazard archive 1990D-Base application 1995Fox-Pro application, with Oracle database 2008 C# application based on Microsoft.NET 2.0 Frameworks with Oracle database and SQL Server 2005 Reporting Services. Geo Risks Research Department The loss data base for natural catastrophes NatCatSERVICE

13 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 Each year about 800 events are documented. YearNumber of data sets 0079 - 99930 1000 - 1499200 1500 - 18991 000 1900 - 19491 000 1950 - 19792 120 1980 - 200819 500 26,000 data sets Number of data sets NatCatSERVICE

14 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 Access & User Service Methodology & Definitions Data Munich Re NatCatSERVICE More than data NatCatSERVICE

15 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 Expert Consultation Harmonizing terminology of disaster perils CRED Participants Regina BelowCREDEM-Dat Susanna Schwarz Swiss Resigma Hajime NakanoADRCGLIDE Julio SergeUNDPDesInventar Angelika Wirtz Petra Löw Munich ReNatCatSERVICE Methodology NatCatSERVICE

16 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 Geophysical Family Meteorological Hydrological Climatological Earthquake Volcanic eruption Mass movement dry Earthquake (Ground shaking) Fire following Tsunami Volcanic eruption Subsidence Rockfall Landslide Structure – peril families Main eventSub Peril NatCatSERVICE

17 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 Storm Tropical cyclone Winter storm (extratropical cyclone) Tempest/Severe storm Hail storm Lightning Tornado Local windstorm (orographic storm) Sandstorm/Dust storm Blizzard/Snowstorm Structure – peril families Geophysical Family Meteorological Hydrological Climatological Main eventSub Peril NatCatSERVICE

18 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 Flood Mass movement wet General flood Flash flood Storm surge Glacial lake outburst flood Subsidence Avalanche Landslide Structure – peril families Geophysical Family Meteorological Hydrological Climatological Main eventSub Peril NatCatSERVICE

19 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 Extreme temperature Drought Wildfire Heat wave Cold wave / frost Extreme winter conditions Drought Wildfire Unspecified Structure – peril families Geophysical Family Meteorological Hydrological Climatological Main eventSub Peril NatCatSERVICE

20 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 Entry details: example Hurricane Ike NatCatSERVICE

21 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 Region Details Damages Hurrikane Ike Region Details Damages Region Details Damages Region Details Damages Region Details Damages Region Details Damages Multi-Region-Event USACuba Turks & Caicos Dom. Rep.HaitiBahamas NatCatSERVICE

22 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 Affected region Scientific details Damage Affected people Affected region Scientific details Damage Affected people Affected region Scientific details Damage Affected people Entry details: example multi peril event Typhoon FloodLandslideTornado NatCatSERVICE

23 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 ScienceGovernment, UN, EU, NGOs News-Agencies Meteorological Services Insurance Sources NatCatSERVICE

24 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 Source No Quality level 6  FURTHER RESEARCH Yes Sources & data quality I NatCatSERVICE

25 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 Source No Quality level 6  FURTHER RESEARCH Yes At least one source of first-class quality Information about losses: very good 1 Information about losses: implausible 4 Information about losses: not available No event description 5  FURTHER RESEARCH Information about losses: not available Event description: plausible 2 Sources & data quality II NatCatSERVICE

26 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 Source No Quality level 6  FURTHER RESEARCH Yes At least one source of first-class quality Second class source One source Information about losses: very good 1 Information about losses: implausible 4 Information about losses: not available No event description 5  FURTHER RESEARCH Information about losses: not available Event description: plausible 2 Information about losses: available Event description: plausible 3 Information about losses: not available Event description: plausible 4 Information about losses: implausible 5  FURTHER RESEARCH Sources & data quality III NatCatSERVICE

27 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 Source No Quality level 6  FURTHER RESEARCH At least one source of third-class quality Information about losses: available Event description: plausible 2 Information about damage: not available Event description: plausible 3 Information about losses: implausible 4 Information about losses: available Event description: detailed 3 Information about losses: not available Event description: available 5  FURTHER RESEARCH Information about losses: not available No event description 6  FURTHER RESEARCH Yes At least one source of first-class quality Second class source One sourceSeveral Sources Information about losses: very good 1 Information about losses: implausible 4 Information about losses: not available No event description 5  FURTHER RESEARCH Information about losses: not available Event description: plausible 2 Information about losses: available Event description: plausible 3 Information about losses: not available Event description: plausible 4 Information about losses: implausible 5  FURTHER RESEARCH Sources & data quality IV NatCatSERVICE

28 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 Number of deaths Event description Affected lines of business Affected people Affected infrastructure Affected buildings Entry details: example Hurrican Ike NatCatSERVICE

29 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 30/o09/2008 Insured losses Munich Re share Additional loss information Overall losses Example: Hurrican Ike - Damages NatCatSERVICE

30 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 Science General public Political committees Analysts, investors Clients Staff NatCatSERVICE Access & User NatCatSERVICE

31 Preconditions for a high quality data base  Money neutrality  Long-term staff, expercience  Independance (of any internal / external influence)  Neutrality - from company‘s philosophy (freedom to research)  Consistency – stable harbour  Clear standards and methodology  Access to a wide group of experts in different disciplines  Access to original and first-class sources NatCatSERVICE

32 © 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft © 2009 Munich Reinsurance Company Thank you for your attention

33 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity) Meteorological events (Storm) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, wildfire) Selection of significant natural catastrophes (see table) 200 Global natural catastrophes 4 5 3 1 2 7 8 6 Haiti, EQ, 225,000 deaths Haiti, EQ, 225,000 deaths Chile, EQ, est. 8bn - 30bn US$ Chile, EQ, est. 8bn - 30bn US$ Hailstorm, Melbourne, 730m US$ insured Hailstorm, Melbourne, 730m US$ insured Winter damage Florida, 30 % of crops destroyed Winter damage Florida, 30 % of crops destroyed Natural Catastrophes January-March 2010 World map NatCatSERVICE

34 3,900 Loss events 91,600 Fatalities Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Meteorological events (Storm) Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption) © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at January 2010 NatCatSERVICE Natural catastrophes 1980 – 2009 Percentage distribution ordered by type of event

35 Overall losses* US$ 450bn Insured losses* US$ 140bn Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Meteorological events (Storm) Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption) © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at January 2010 NatCatSERVICE Natural catastrophes 1980 – 2009 Percentage distribution ordered by type of event * in 2009 values

36 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2010 NatCatSERVICE Significant natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2009 10 costliest natural catastrophes ordered by overall losses © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at January 2010

37 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2010 NatCatSERVICE Significant natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2009 10 costliest natural catastrophes ordered by insured losses © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at January 2010

38 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2010 NatCatSERVICE Significant natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2009 10 deadliest natural catastrophes © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at January 2010

39 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 Significant natural catastrophes (selection) Great natural catastrophes: 2009 no event met the requirement “Great natural catastrophe” 2009: 850 natural catastrophes Geophysical events (Earthquakes, tsunami, volcanic eruption) Meteorological events (Storm) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) Natural catastrophes 2009 Worldmap NatCatSERVICE

40 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 Global version available in: German, English, French, Italian, Spanish US version (Engl.) Asia version (Engl.,Chinese) Australia/Oceania version (Engl.) Annual publication since 1994Edition Topics Geo – Review of the year of natural catastrophes

41 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 Download-Center There are 50 documents available in each language version NatCatSERVICE

42 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 Sources & data quality V Data quality 1 - 6 NatCatSERVICE

43 © 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010 30/09/2008 US$ EuroOriginal currency Automatic currency conversion NatCatSERVICE

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