1. ENTWINED ENVIRONMENT AND TRADE IN A WORLD OF INTERDEPENDANCE. WWW.ENTWINED.SE

2. International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade (IIFET) 2010 Montpellier, 13-16 July 2010 Håkan Eggert, Mads Greaker and Asmerom Kidane* University of Gothenburg, *University of Dar es Salaam Financial support from Entwined, Mistra and Environment for Development, Sida is acknowledged. Thanks to the World Bank for the 1993 survey data. www.efdinitiative.org Welfare Effects of Fisheries Boom in Lake Victoria

3. Lake Victoria fisheries - Africas largest inland fishery - Total landings 1 million tons in 2006 - Nile perch export $ 150 million from Tanzania (2008), 5% of total exports - Overfishing

4. Nile perch landings 1977-2008 FAO, fishstat 2010

5. Nile perch cpue kg/boat year From Warui, 2007

6. Free trade beneficial Free trade and open access is not always beneficial Chichilnisky, 1994; Brander and Taylor, 1998; Hannesson, 2000; Copeland and Taylor, 2009 + Hartwick’s rule (1977)

7. Claim that fish exports contribute to food insecurity ”…unrestricted trade has contributed to food insecurity and reduced nutrition…” (Abila, 2003) Abila and Jansen, 1997; Jansen, 1996; Bokea and Ikiara, 2000 - Darwin’s Nightmare

8. Annual growth in Tanzania 1993-2008 was 4.5% HDI, UNEP World Bank survey 1993 EfD survey 2008 520 households in Mara and Mwanza Household Budget Surveys (HBS) provide - reference years 1991, 2000 and 2007

10. Lake Victoria

11. Results

13. USD 1 = TShs 1,300, October 2008

14. 20081993 Model 1Model 2Weighted R_household_count_adultequiv-0.350***-0.325***-0.162*** R_household_count_adultequiv_sq0.022***0.006***0.006** R_head_age0.0230.001-0.001 R_head_gender-0.055-0.074 R_head_activity_farmworkRef. R_head_activity_lookingforworkDroppeddropped0.296 R_head_activity_fishing0.3400.3350.878** R_head_activity_paidemp0.1680.184**0.275*** R_head_activity_otherprod0.195***0.217**0.459*** R_head_activity_other0.1050.1180.116 R_head_activity_missingDroppeddropped0.129 R_head_educ_none-0.451***-0.466***-0.040 R_head_educ_primaryRef. R_head_educ_secondary0.739***0.753***0.425*** R_head_educ_postsecondary0.800***0.813***0.395* R_head_educ_adultDroppeddropped-0.196 R_head_educ_other-0.323**-0.289*dropped R_head_educ_missingDroppeddropped0.621*** W_village_lake_10km0.157*** W_village_lake_2km0.190** _cons14.10***14.06***14.10*** N502 515 adj. R20.2700.2730.317 a 1993 price variables adjusted for inflation using IFS series 73864ZF CPI urban areas (all families) (IMF 2010) from date of survey to October 2008. Level of significance: * p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01 OLS Regression Income (log expenditures per adult equivalent) Table 5. OLS Regression on Income measured as log expenditure per adult equivalent.

15. Conclusions - Welfare has improved slightly 1993-2008 - The fraction of poor reduced in the urban areas - Education level improved both in rural and urban areas - <10 km from lake significantly better off

16. Conclusions cont. - Substantial real price increases for meat and fish 1993- 2008 - Still, unacceptable high numbers of children malnourished (Geheb et al, 2008) - Change of income distribution within hh, men control the fishery income while women often not directly benefit from it (Geheb et al, 2008) - Improving status of women vis-à-vis men likely improves nutrition of children (Smith et al, 2003)