1. Daily gradients of linear fit Model mean gradients (absolute values), CMIP5 models, historical run (1/1/1990- 31/12/2005) Only uses 10 models, i.e. omits CNRM, because of lower amount of soil moisture in this model

2. Colours show model mean gradients Stipping shows where inter-model standard deviation < 75% of the mean DJF MAM JJA SON SM=bP+a

3. Colours show model mean gradients Stipping shows where inter-model standard deviation < 75% of the mean DJF MAM JJA SON P=bTs+a

4. Colours show model mean gradients Stipping shows where inter-model standard deviation < 75% of the mean DJF MAM JJA SON SM=bTs+a