1. Trends in Fisheries and food Roger Martini 25 January 2012 This presentation represents the view of the author and may not reflect that of the OECD Secretariat or its member countries.

2. Outline Macro Economy developments Fishery Outlook Policy Outlook

3. Macro Outlook

4. Lots of macro risks Outcomes depend on how events like euro crisis play themselves out Fiscal retrenchment will continue Food prices will remain high

5. Estonian food price inflation highest in OECD

6. 2010201120122013 United States3.01.72.02.5 Euro area1.81.60.21.4 Japan4.1-0.32.01.6 Total OECD3.11.91.62.3 Source: OECD Economic Outlook 90 database. Brazil7.53.43.23.9 China10.49.38.59.5 India9.97.77.28.2 Indonesia6.16.36.16.5 Russian Federation4.0 4.1 South Africa2.83.23.64.7 Slow GDP Growth in near term

7. Estonian Growth to be above OECD average 201120122013 GDP8.0%3.2%4.4% Consumption3.5%3.7%4.3% Consumer prices5.3%3.0%3.2% Unemployment12.313.113.0

8. Most Growth will come outside OECD

9. Fisheries Outlook

10. Growth rates of aquaculture and capture fisheries will slow Growth to slow to 2.8% from last decade’s 5.6%

11. Aquaculture to be larger than capture fisheries by 2015 Kt

12. Aquaculture growing everywhere, but China almost 60% of total Total= 54.6 mtTotal=72.4 mt * Indicates excluding USA, China and EU27 respectively

13. Prices will continue to increase

14. Real prices higher than in 2000s

15. And demand growth will continue apace Consumption to reach 17.9kg per person in 2020

16. And demand growth will continue apace * Indicates excluding USA, China and EU27 respectively

17. Trade in fish products will outpace demand growth Developing Developed

18. Processing residue to become more important source of fish meal

19. Aquaculture demand will boost fish meal prices relative to oil

20. Russian net imports to increase

21. China future prospects Labour costs increase Resources may limit aquaculture growth Demand will continue to grow with economy So, trade may start to move towards Asia

22. Policy Outlook

23. Rebuilding of fisheries will become priority Rebuilding well under way in United States EEZ fisheries Stock declines will force retrenchment in many fisheries Rebuilding seen as key to improved profitability in many cases. OECD work shows benefit of stakeholder involvement and broad objectives

24. Certification will continue to gain prominence Capture fisheries moving into next phase of certification growth Aquaculture certification will grow strongly, driven by retail and consumer demand

25. Retail dominance will help drive certification

26. Market mechanisms will dominate Tradable Quotas seen as solution to overfishing, overcapacity More efficient fleets will drive profitability, improved stewardship

27. OECD review of Estonian fisheries Sensible system in place Sector currently limited in species and markets, so finding growth will be a challenge. The market-based system in place is a comparative advantage that will help ensure that any growth is sustainable