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C1, L2, S1 Political Polls in New Zealand Dru Rose.

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Presentation on theme: "C1, L2, S1 Political Polls in New Zealand Dru Rose."— Presentation transcript:

1 C1, L2, S1 Political Polls in New Zealand Dru Rose

2 C1, L2, S2 There are 6 main poll companies: One News Colmar Brunton Herald DigiPoll 3 News Reid Research Herald on Sunday Key Research Roy Morgan Horizon Dru Rose

3 C1, L2, S3 Colmar Brunton, DigiPoll, Reid, Key and Roy Morgan use CATI Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing Dru Rose

4 C1, L2, S4 and RDD (Random Digit Dialling ) Computer software randomly rings a household with a landline telephone. The interviewer asks to speak to the adult with the most recent birthday. If that person is not at home, the CATI software usually programmes several re-calls over a 4-day period in an attempt to contact them. Dru Rose

5 C1, L2, S5 Some form of Stratified Sampling is used which samples Geographic regions Rural/urban Gender Age Income distribution Ethnicity in approximately the same proportions as in the population Dru Rose

6 C1, L2, S6 Non-Sampling errors Selection bias (RDD-landlines only) non-response/don’t know bias The 5 main poll companies first exclude non-voters and then those with no firm preference (undecided ) Poll %s are for decided voters only (These polls usually produce predictions close to actual election results for the two main parties) Dru Rose

7 C1, L2, S7 Horizon Poll Horizon polls are on-line. People are invited to join the HorizonPoll national online research panel based on the profile of the population at the 2006 census. Large Sample size 1800+(to provide sufficient respondents from minor parties) Weight by age, gender, ethnicity, region, personal income and party vote (2011). Includes both decided voters and undecided voters leaning towards a preference called a Net Potential Vote poll. Dru Rose


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