1. Dwight Aakre Farm Management Specialist January 2011

2. Rotation Price and market outlook Marketing issues Machinery needs Profitability Risk Return over variable costs

3. 1990 - 92 = 100

4. Seedunchanged to up 30% Fertilizerup 40-75% Chemicalsflat (on average) Fuelup 20% Repairsup 5% Crop insuranceup 25-75% Rentup

5. 20112010 Diesel3.00/gal2.50/gal Gas3.00/gal2.70/gal

6. 20112010 Nitrogen0.48/lb0.34/lb Phosphorus0.56/lb0.32/lb Potassium0.46/lb

7. 2011 est.2010 Corn4.003.90 Soybeans9.909.15 HRS Wheat6.704.90 Canola0.1980.165 Oil Sunflower0.20350.165 Barley3.703.00

8. 20092010 Corn4.043.99 Soybeans8.809.23 HRS Wheat6.205.43 Canola0.160.172 Oil Sunflower0.1770.209 Barley2.653.22

9. Limit Factor Large seeded food grade1.5 Small seeded food grade1.3 Low linolenic acid1.15 Low saturated fat1.15 High protein1.15

10. Limit Factor Malting 1.85 Waxy hulled 1.95 Waxy hulless 2.30 Hulless 1.20

11. CropAPHCoverage Level Yield Protection/ APH Price Guarantee 2011 Barley5570%$4.50$173.25 2010 Barley5570%$3.00$105.00 2011 Wheat3470%$8.00$190.40 2010 Wheat3470%$4.90$109.76 2011 Soybeans2670%$12.00$218.40 2010 Soybeans2670%$9.15$166.53 2011 Oil Sunflower130070%$0.20$182.00 2010 Oil Sunflower130070%$0.165$150.15

12. Corn Grain279.31 Drybeans218.28 Conf Sunflowers195.10 Canola194.50 Winter Wheat189.29 Spring Wheat171.96 Oil Sunflowers171.47 Durum168.24 Soybeans150.21 Malting Barley149.34 Oats128.31 Field Peas128.30 Yellow Mustard120.58 Flax115.98 Buckwheat113.80 Millet79.34

13. Corn Grain220.30 Conf Sunflowers189.16 Canola174.71 Drybeans171.47 Winter Wheat169.51 Oil Sunflowers164.70 Spring Wheat146.74 Durum146.10 Malting Barley132.47 Lentils125.92 Soybeans123.41 Rye120.15 Yellow Mustard116.68 Oats111.99 Buckwheat107.76 Flax107.17 Millet67.58

14. Spring Wheat7.13 Durum7.42 Barley4.75 Corn4.28 Soybeans11.45 Drybeans0.245 Oil Sunflowers0.197 Conf Sunflowers0.288 Canola0.22 Flax12.16 Field Peas6.30 Oats2.80 Yellow Mustard0.235 Buckwheat0.236 Millet0.075 Winter Wheat6.22 Lentils0.23 Rye4.09

15. Corn Grain415.16 Canola354.20 Conf Sunflowers351.36 Drybeans345.45 Winter Wheat317.22 Spring Wheat306.59 Durum304.22 Soybeans297.70 Malting Barley294.50 Oil Sunflowers275.80 Flax267.52 Field Peas226.80 Buckwheat224.20 Yellow Mustard223.25 Oats193.20 Millet120.00

16. Conf Sunflowers387.71 Corn Grain359.16 Canola324.00 Drybeans311.15 Soybeans295.10 Winter Wheat292.80 Lentils292.10 Malting Barley283.79 Oil Sunflowers283.71 Spring Wheat260.48 Durum257.25 Flax237.80 Yellow Mustard222.30 Buckwheat221.35 Field Peas207.90 Rye171.78 Oats167.40 Millet97.50

17. Canola157.70 Conf Sunflowers156.26 Flax151.70 Soybeans147.49 Malting Barley145.16 Durum135.98 Corn Grain135.85 Spring Wheat134.63 Winter Wheat130.93 Drybeans127.17 Buckwheat111.34 Oil Sunflowers104.33 Yellow Mustard102.67 Field Peas98.50 Oats64.89 Millet40.66

18. Conf Sunflowers198.55 Soybeans171.69 Lentils166.18 Malting Barley151.32 Canola149.29 Drybeans139.68 Corn Grain138.86 Flax130.09 Winter Wheat123.29 Oil Sunflowers119.01 Spring Wheat113.74 Buckwheat113.59 Durum111.15 Yellow Mustard105.05 Field Peas91.22 Oats55.41 Rye51.63 Millet29.92

19. Canola83.04 Soybeans79.27 Conf Sunflowers76.00 Flax72.24 Malting Barley63.44 Durum58.71 Spring Wheat57.20 Winter Wheat56.53 Corn42.00 Drybeans41.42 Buckwheat30.19 Yellow Mustard25.23 Oil Sunflowers23.60 Field Peas17.57 Oats(17.41) Millet(38.16)

20. Conf Sunflowers122.66 Soybeans101.03 Lentils91.04 Canola75.08 Malting Barley73.41 Drybeans59.92 Flax57.49 Corn52.66 Winter Wheat51.57 Oil Sunflowers42.92 Spring Wheat40.33 Buckwheat39.44 Durum37.86 Yellow Mustard29.81 Field Peas16.79 Rye(19.86) Oats(22.57) Millet(45.90)

22. Crop Compare (an Excel spreadsheet) available to download at: http://www.ag.ndsu.edu/farmmanagement

23. The objective of “crop compare” is to calculate the cash price needed for other crops to yield the same return over variable costs as the base crop

24. All yields All variable costs Futures price and basis for base crop

25. Fixed costs are not included Machinery ownership Owner/operator labor Differences in management and risk are not included

26. Machinery Storage Labor Management Risk