1. Grains and oilseeds Vince O’Donnell ABARES Grains team: Henry To, James Fell and Fiona Crawford

3. World prices wheat corn soybean 2010-11 US$/t

4. Australian grain prices 2011-12 32% A$/tonne Wheat APW 251 Canola 548 Malt barley 215 15% 10% Feed barley 179 Grain sorghum 205 ─ 6%

5. Driving the demand for grain Population growth –9.2 billion by 2050 Income growth –changing diets increased feed demand Industrial uses –Biofuels - ethanol, biodiesel

6. Growth in biofuels US corn

7. Supply side variability Stocks Production

8. World stocks wheat corn

9. World - stocks to use ratio Wheat Corn %

10. Supply side variability Stocks Production –Weather shocks –Varieties – GMs, drought resistance –Response to prices –Technology

11. Winter crop production

12. Russia wheat Exports Production Mt

13. Rapidly changing technology Production –Assisted decision making –Improved management practices Information systems –Markets –Knowledge of environment Speculation in the market

14. Farm cash income – by industry average per farm Crop specialists Mixed enterprise 2010-11 $‘000

15. Farm cash income – crop specialists average per farm New South Wales Western Australia 2010-11 $‘000

16. Investment on grain farms – average per farm 2010-11 $‘000

17. Managing variability Lower grain prices Understanding the market Improving productivity Investment in R&D

18. www.abares.gov.au

20. Grain production in Russia Barley Wheat Sunflowers Mt

21. Grain exports from Russia Barley Wheat Sunflowers