1. Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015 Update

2. Background

3. Embezzlement Study 1997-1998 3 The Commission conducted a study of felony embezzlement cases to examine the relationship between the amount embezzled and sentencing outcomes. ― Analysis of felony embezzlement cases sentenced under truth-in-sentencing laws between January 1, 1995, and June 30, 1997 Since analysis revealed a relationship between dollar amount embezzled and the sentence received, new factors were added to Sections A, B, and C of the Fraud worksheets.

4. The following year, the Commission conducted a study of larceny and fraud cases to examine the relationship between the amount of money or value of property stolen and sentencing outcomes The Commission studied a sample of felony larceny and fraud cases sentenced in CY1998 and CY1999. ― Sample excluded embezzlement because it had been examined in the previous study. ― Certain other offenses were also excluded, such as motor vehicle theft and forging public record, since the statutory definition is not tied to value. Larceny and Fraud Study 1999-2000 4

5. Final sample was 749 cases (309 larceny; 440 fraud). Supplemental data was collected on factors of interest that were not contained in automated data. − Narratives from the Pre/Post-Sentence Investigation (PSI) reports − Court records Larceny and Fraud Study 1999-2000 5

6. Although many variations of the factors were tried, models with factors that were statistically significant were only marginally better than the existing guidelines model. − The best models involved both dollar amount and a factor related to restitution and/or victim type. − Adding such factors would have added a layer of complexity for users when scoring. Larceny and Fraud Study 1999-2000 Commission took no action 6

7. 2013-2015 Study

8. A large sample is preferred, as some cases will be eliminated in subsequent stages. ― Supplemental data may reveal a conviction for an excluded offense. ― Wrong VCC may have been used. ― Available data may be insufficient to include the offender. Strategy is similar to the original Larceny/Fraud Study in 1999-2000. Selection of Study Sample: Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015 8

9. Sample was based on a stratified random sampling technique to under-sample grand larceny cases and over-sample other types of larcenies. − To ensure adequate number of cases for non-grand larceny in the sample Sample includes embezzlement. − Length of time since previous study − Judges frequently cite dollar amount when sentencing above the guidelines Selection of Study Sample: Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015 9

10. Number of Cases Grand Larceny200 Embezzlement600 Other Larcenies400 Fraud300 Total1,500 For the analysis, the sampled cases will be weighted to reflect each subgroup’s actual proportion in the population. Selection of Study Sample Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015 10

11. Dollar value of money or property stolen Type(s) of items Damage of items Money/items recovered Insurance coverage for items Location of offense Duration of offense Number of victims Type and Age of victim(s) Offender relationship to victim Status of restitution at time of sentencing Restitution ordered at sentencing Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015 11 Supplemental Data Collection

12. Pre/Post-Sentence Investigation (PSI) reports ― 42% of the sampled cases were matched to PSI data − Of these, 98% contained information in the offense narrative field Officer of the Court Remote Access (OCRA) System ― Contains scanned copies of court records ― Of the sampled cases, 49.6% occurred in a court with OCRA The majority of sampled cases (72.7%) either had a PSI or occurred in an OCRA jurisdiction Possible Electronic Data Sources: Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015 12

13. Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015 OCRA Jurisdictions 13 AugustaPortsmouth BedfordPrince William BristolRockingham CarolineRichmond City ChesapeakeRoanoke County DanvilleRoanoke City DickensonShenandoah DinwiddieSmyth FauquierSouthampton FredericksburgSpotsylvania HalifaxStafford HanoverStaunton HenricoSuffolk Isle of WightTazewell LoudounWashington Newport NewsWaynesboro NorfolkWilliamsburg NorthamptonWinchester

14. Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015 Information Available in OCRA 14 Stipulation of Facts

15. Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015 Information Available in OCRA 15 Stipulation of Facts

16. Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015 Information Available in OCRA 16 Sentencing Order

17. Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015 Information Available in PSI 17 Offense Narrative

18. Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015 Information Available in PSI 18 Victim Information

19. Law Enforcement Databases Commonwealth’s Attorneys’ files Victim Impact Statements Other Court records (paper files) Probation Office records Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015 19 Other Potential Data Sources

20. 20 Region 1 Tidewater Cases: 83 Region 2 Northern Virginia Cases: 38 Region 5 Southside Virginia Cases: 41 Region 6 Shenandoah Valley/Piedmont Cases: 66 Region 4 Southwest Virginia Cases: 100 Region 3 Central Virginia Cases: 81 Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015 Cases in Non-OCRA Courts without a PSI Total: 409

21. July 2014 – June 2015 Data collection June 2015 – August 2015 Data analysis September 2015 Present preliminary results November 2015 Present proposal for guidelines revision (if supported by data) Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015 Revised Work Plan 21