1. Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia Sergey Shashnov Anna Sokolova National Research University ‘Higher School of Economics’ Russia The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011

2. Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia  Russian Federation accumulates over one third of the world stock of natural gas, coal and iron ore, and about one tenth of oil stock  Russian water resources form 20% of the world water stock  Share of mining operations exceeds 20% from the total production output  Share of raw mineral complex production in total exports is almost 80%  Hydro power generation - 20% Scale of Russian natural resources complex and its place in the economy

3. Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia  Around 40 million people live in unfavorable natural conditions, 1 million people live in places with critical pollution level  Specific emission indicators exceed similar foreign indicators by several times  High specific water-holding capacity of NGP (exceeds level of foreign countries by 2-3 times)  High rate of water resources loss (10% of the total volume)  Low oil extraction factor (33%)  Climate changes and natural emergency situations increase Problems and challenges

4. Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia 4 National S&T Foresight: 2025 National S&T Foresight: 2030 Innovation priorities for the Russian complex of natural resources Recommendations for Russian S&T and innovation policy in the field of natural resources General scheme of foresight projects to identify S&T&I priorities for the sector of natural resources Identification of the most important and developed areas in the long-run perspective Evaluation of required resources and possible innovation projects for these areas Identification of crucial activity areas for the governance system in the field of natural resources -> rational use of natural resources

5. Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia National S&T Foresight: 2025 Over 2000 experts from 40 regions Different expert procedures (Delphi as a central method) On the basis of National S&T priorities and Critical technologies: - 9 S&T priorities - 56 thematic areas

6. Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia Rational use of natural resources  Importance for Russia  Possible implementation timeframes  Russia’s position vis-à-vis world leaders  Support measures  Contribution to economic growth and increased competitiveness, role in dealing with major social challenges Main criteria for topics evaluation: Ultradeep drilling technologies (up to 15 km) Technologies for ecologically safe mining and oil and gas extraction Technologies for estimating resources and forecasting (lithosphere and biosphere) Technologies for processing and utilizing anthropogenic substances and wastes Technologies for environmental monitoring and forecasting (atmos phere and hydrosphere) Technologies for risk and damage containment afte r natural and technogenous disasters Thematic areas 56 Topics

7. Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia Rational use of natural resources: the most important topics Importance index Time of realization 201420162019 Technologies of accelerated and effective restoration of disturbed acres, landscapes and biodiversity Technologies of environmentally safe recycling and disposal of household and industrial waste Geoinformation database on forest fires in Russia, which enables to assess the number of fires and burnt areas in real-time mode Development of geophysical methods of oil and gas prospecting in structurally complex environment Technologies of high-efficient cleaning of polluted territories using plants and biomaterials 2018 9898 9797 9696 9595 9494

8. Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia National S&T Foresight: 2030 Rational use of natural resources Prevention and liquidation of environmental pollution, monitoring and forecasting of the environment conditions Technologies for processing and utilizing anthropogenic substances and wastes Prevention and liquidation of emergencies related to natural and technogene emergencies Thematic areas Technology groups include the most important and developed topics of S&T Foresight: 2025 Integrated more general areas on the basis of the areas of S&T Foresight: 2025 Main criteria for groups evaluation:  Current level of Russian R&D  Major results of innovation projects based on relevant R&D  Required resources (personnel, funds, equipment)  Market potential of products which can be developed on the basis of relevant R&D  Feasibility of implementing major innovation projects in Russia Diagnosing current state of environment and dangerous anthropogenic systems Remote monitoring techniques based on space satellite systems

9. Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia Rational use of natural resources: the most developed groups Index of R&D level Cumulative effect 1.71.82 Technologies for rapid and effective recovery of defective soil, landscape and biodiversity Remote monitoring techniques based on space satellite systems Diagnosing current state of environment and dangerous anthropogenic systems Technologies for early detection of conditions contributing to emergence of extreme environmental situations, natural or anthropogenic Processes of selective disintegration 1.9 67 62 57 52 1.61.5

10. Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia Thematic area: Prevention and liquidation of environmental pollution, monitoring and forecasting of the environment conditions Scale of markets Feasibility of innovation projects Perspective markets of large-scale demand Perspective markets of small-scale demand Evaluation of feasibility of innovation projects & scale of markets

11. Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia Major results of National S&T Foresight: 2030  List of markets and segments, where Russia can improve its positions  Detailed description of chosen groups  Estimation of resources and risks  Technology roadmaps for the most perspective product groups  The most important innovation projects  The most important research projects

12. Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia Innovation priorities for the Russian complex of natural resources Water resources Mineral resources Environment Information baseExpert procedures Analysis of global priorities Analysis of socio- economic objectives Statistics Analysis of problems Surveys Interviews Workshops SCOPE:

13. Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia General project scheme Information base Expert procedures Main problems and challenges in management system of Russian complex of natural resources and its sectors Innovation priorities for the Russian complex of natural resources Suggestions on amendments in strategic documents of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Ecology of the Russian Federation …. Major tasks Low efficiency of authority separation system at all levels of water resources management Need for gradual modernization and harmonization of the existing system of rate fixing according to the rates of the EU and WTO Designing an effective system of scientific support of measures aimed at biodiversity preservation and its sustainable use Development of risk management tools and assessment of decisions efficiency Creating and development of an advisory system on using and conservation of land resources by analogy with successful foreign prototypes Development of water and water- retaining production market adjusted for ecological safety criteria

14. Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia General project scheme: example Main problems and challenges in management system of Russian complex of natural resources and its sectors Innovation priorities for the Russian complex of natural resources Suggestions on amendments in strategic documents of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Ecology of the Russian Federation …. Major tasks The problem: Absence of an effective administrative mechanism for elimination of critical volume of cumulative ecological damage The problem: ….. ………………………. The priority: Formation a complex administrative mechanism for elimination of critical volume of cumulative ecological damage The task: Development of a legal mechanism of responsibility for cumulative ecological damage, order of its assessment and compensation procedures Over 40 Over 100 It is suggested to make amendments in Ecological Doctrine of the Russian Federation (into key factors of Russian environment degradation, main principles of state ecological policy, list of strategic approaches of natural environment restoration, other sections), map of a project “ Designing new ecological life standards” (adding a new target code, changing of anticipated results), and corresponding amendments in Civil Code of the Russian Federation, part 1, 30.11.1994 № 51 federal law, part 2, 26.01.1996 № 14, Land Code of the Russian Federation, 25 October 2001 № 136, federal law “About environmental protection”,10 January 2002 №7 The task: ….. ………………….

15. Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia Innovation priorities for the Russian complex of natural resources: for the Russian complex of natural resources: example for area of « example for area of «industrial waste and cumulative ecological damage» сreation of mechanisms for elimination of cumulative ecological damage improvement of law enforcement system and law enforcement practice designing effective economy mechanisms for stimulating enterprises to decrease waste formation development of effective intersectoral cooperation

16. Identifying S&T and innovation priorities for the sector of natural resources in Russia Summary

17. Thank you for your attention! shashnov@hse.ruavsokolova@hse.ru