1. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Risk Environment for Agriculture Ag. Credit School Ames, Iowa June 4, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

2. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Population 2013 2020 2050 (billion) World7.095World7.628World9.383 China1.350China1.385India1.657 India1.221India1.326China1.304 U.S.0.317U.S.0.337U.S.0.423 Indonesia0.251Indonesia0.267Nigeria0.402 Brazil0.201Pakistan0.214Indonesia0.300 Pakistan0.193Brazil0.212Pakistan0.291 Nigeria0.175Nigeria0.208Bangladesh0.250 Bangladesh0.164Bangladesh0.183Brazil0.232 Russia0.143Russia0.142Ethiopia0.228 Japan0.127Japan0.126Philippines0.172 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

3. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics GDP Growth Source: USDA-ERS

4. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics GDP Growth Source: USDA-ERS

5. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Meat Consumption Source: USDA-PSD

6. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Veg. Oil Consumption Source: USDA-PSD

7. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Use for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS

8. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Use for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS

9. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Liquid Fuel Usage 200720152020202520302035 (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)(Percent of 2007 Value) United States20.698%100%102%104%107% Canada2.396% 100%104% Mexico2.1105%110%114%129%138% Europe15.392%88% 89%90% Japan5.084%86% 84%82% China7.6132%153%178%201%222% India2.8114%129%139%154%168% Africa3.1113%116%126%135%148% Central and South America6.0110%112%117%125%133% World86.1103%107%113%121%128% Source: DOE-EIA

10. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Crude Oil Prices Source: USDA-ERS

11. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS 7.6 bil. gal. 7.4 bil. gal.

12. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crop Prices for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS

13. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Government Debt Source: Fed. Res. Bank of StL, FRED

14. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Employment Source: Fed. Res. Bank of StL, FRED

15. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Real GDP Source: Fed. Res. Bank of StL, FRED

16. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Budget Projections by Title Title2013-2022 Budget Change ($ million) Title I – Commodity-17,639 Title II – Conservation -6,374 Title III – Trade 0 Title IV – Nutrition -4,024 Title V – Credit 0 Title VI – Rural Development 0 Title VII – Research 645 Title VIII – Forestry 9 Title IX – Energy 0 Title X – Horticulture 359 Title XI – Crop Insurance 2,748 Title XII – Miscellaneous -466 Total-24,747

17. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Budget Projections by Crop Crop2013-2022 Budget Change ($ million) Corn-5,752 Soybean 1,459 Wheat-6,409 Cotton-6,077 Rice-2,842 Sorghum -505 Barley -615 Oats -11 Peanuts -314 Dairy -59

18. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Commodity Title Changes2013-2022 Budget Change ($ million) End Direct Payments-44,622 End Countercyclical Payments -1,008 End ACRE -4,615 Adding Popcorn 91 Ag. Risk Coverage 29,240 Marketing Loans 35 Sugar Program 0 Dairy Program -59 Disaster Assistance 3,297 AGI Limits -95 Implementation 100 Total-17,639

19. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crop Insurance Title Changes2013-2022 Budget Change ($ million) Supplemental Coverage Option 682 CAT Rerating -437 Enterprise Units 506 APH Adjustment 855 Stacked IP for Cotton 3,224 Peanut Rev. Insurance 239 Implementation 85 Index-Based Weather Ins. 50 Beginning Farmer Provisions 192 Ag. Mng. Assistance 6 Crop Prod. on Native Sod -167 Participation Effects from ARC-2,487 Total 2,748

20. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Free Trade Agreements With South Korea, Colombia, and Panama Previously, with Israel, Jordan, Singapore, Chile, Australia, Morocco, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Bahrain, Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Oman, and Peru Most famous: NAFTA, with Canada and Mexico

21. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Planting Stats Source: USDA-NASS

22. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Planting Stats Source: USDA-NASS

23. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Input Costs Source: USDA, Agricultural Prices

24. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn

25. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soy

26. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

27. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

28. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/