1. State of the Community Climate System Model Peter Gent Chairman CCSM Scientific Steering Committee gent@ucar.edu

2. Recent Science Highlights CCSM IJHPCA Special Issue Objectives  Describe SE for climate models  Document performance and portability 13 papers published in Fall 2005, Volume 19, Number 3 Authorship  32 External  9 NCAR

3. Recent Science Highlights J. Climate Special Issue devoted to CCSM3: Vol 19, No 11, June 1, 2006 26 papers  SSC (1)  Atmosphere Model (6)  Ocean Model (4)  Land Model (2)  Climate Change (2)  Climate Variability (4)  Polar Climate(4)  Paleoclimate (3) 510 pages Authorship  51 NCAR  48 External

4. Contributions to IPCC Fourth Assessment Output: 10 GB/simulated year Data volume for IPCC: ~100 TB Largest contribution of any model Eight ensemble members at T85 for some experiments Data available online: PCMDI (IPCC archive) ESG (Control) Original history tapes: SCD Diagnostics on line (web)

6. Near-term Scientific Priorities Get a good coupled simulation using the finite volume dynamical core; need a sea-ice distribution that is comparable to, or better than, the CCSM3 simulation. Improve the major biases in the CCSM3 simulations. The most eye-catching bias is the double ITCZ in the tropical Pacific Ocean and the high frequency of ENSO.

7. b30.081 is FV 2.2x1.9 b30.009 is CCSM3 T85

8. b30.081 is FV 2.2x1.9 b30.009 is CCSM3 T85

9. b30.081 is FV 2.2x1.9 b30.004 is CCSM3 T42

10. b30.081 is FV 2.2x1.9 b30.004 is CCSM3 T42

11. Labrador Sea, T(182m), Year 10 Cape Desolation OWS Bravo AR7W IC EGC WGC Labrador C. DC Deep Convection 1/3° Atlantic 4 km Lab Sea DC

12. CCSM3 T42x1 Without Smag Temp and Velocity at 97 m. With Smag

13. FV2.2x1.9 Without Smag Temp and Velocity at 97 m. With Smag

14. Mean column heat Budget (W/m 2 ) RegionMean Advection Eddy Advection Surface Heat Flux Residual WGC (smooth) 488 (320) -412 (-246) -78 (-76) -2 (-4) LC 90 -36 -55 Interior -12 96 -79 4 Domain 53 -57 -5

15. Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level 15 List of Nominations Some major issues in CCSM3 simulations Temperature and Precipitation –Biases in continental temperature and precipitation –SSTs in coastal stratus regions –Semi-annual cycle in SST for the E. Pacific –Arctic low cloud and temperature biases –Tropical tropopause biases –Double ITCZ in the Pacific Representation of major modes of variability –El Nino / Southern Oscillation –The Madden-Julian Oscillation

16. Nino3 SST Power Spectra Gent and Kiehl, 2004; Collins et al, 2006

17. Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level 17 List of Nominations Madden-Julian Oscillation Propagation Collins et al, 2006

18. Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level 18 List of Nominations Continental Temperature Collins et al, 2006

19. WRF 36 km res global channel Precipitation in 1996 CAM3 at T170 res

21. Global Annual Mean Energy Budget Global Annual Mean Surface Temperature Permian coupled model run for 2700 years to new equilibrium state Forcing of 10X increase in CO 2 and Permian paleogeography  T s > = 8°C CCSM3 T31X3 Kiehl and Shields (2005)

22. Barotropic Streamfunction

23. Permian MOC Sv Present MOC Sv Warm high latitude waters prevent formation of deep overturning

24. Kiehl and Shields (2005) Ideal age at 3km depth in ocean. Inefficient mixing in Permian ocean indicative of anoxia

25. Arctic Sea Ice Area in Hosing Experiments April September LGM Modern Cecilia Bitz et al.

26. Vertical Freshwater Flux Averaged over Hosing Area Cecilia Bitz et al.

27. Longer-term Scientific Priorities Include biogeochemistry and ocean ecosystem model for the carbon cycle. Include both the direct and indirect effects of aerosols. Include a land ice sheet model. Include interactive vegetation and land use changes in the land component. Atmospheric chemistry component has been added to CAM3; include the effects of tropospheric ozone.

28. Multi-Century Coupled Carbon/Climate Simulations Net CO 2 Flux (Pg C/yr) -2.0 +2.0 Fully prognostic land/ocn BGC and carbon/radiation Atm-Land CO 2 flux: 70 PgC/yr  ; Atm-Ocean CO 2 flux: 90 PgC/yr  Net Land+ocean CO 2 flux: 0  1 PgC/yr “Stable” carbon cycle and climate over 1000 years Surface Temp. 13.6 14.1 10000 year 01000 year Doney, Lindsay, Fung and John: Accepted by J Climate

29. Flux of CO 2 into the world oceans (Ocean ecosystem model) Moore, Doney, and Lindsay

30. New CCSM-3 Ocean ecosystem model allows for exploration of coupling of dust/iron, ocean biology, carbon cycle & climate Future “scenario” has lower dust, export & N 2 fixation => net ocean CO 2 outgassing Moore, Doney, Lindsay, Mahowald, Tellus, submitted potential climate amplifier

31. Dependence of NEE on Tair and Prcp: multiple linear regression Control Expt C+N Control Expt C+N Tair (1.4 ± 0.2 PgC/K) Prcp (-12.8 ± 1.2 PgC/(mm day -1 )) (coupled simulations)

32. Land carbon cycle sensitivity to [CO 2 ] atm : influence of Ndep Offline: CO 2 IPSL and Hadley CSM1/CASA’ Offline: CO 2 +Ndep ? CAM-CLM3CN Peter Thornton et al.

33. Johan Feddema Historical changes in agricultural land use

34. The hydrological cycle (measured here by the global integral of the precipitable water) slows down with increasing aerosol loading Response of the chemistry-climate system to changes in aerosols emissions. Without any changes to surface emissions of ozone precursors, the global integrals (surface to 200 hPa) of OH, ozone and NO x (=NO+NO 2 ) show a large increase from decreasing aerosols. This is due to a combination of an increase in water vapor and reduced uptake on aerosols of HO 2, N 2 O 5 and NO 2. scaling of SO 2, NH 3, BC, and POA From Lamarque et al., GRL, 2005

35. Response of ozone to increasing methane At the Permian-Triassic boundary (250 Ma), there was possibly a large release of methane from clathrates. To simulate the impact of this methane on ozone, we have used WACCM (reduced to 85 km) forced by the paleogeography and boundary conditions from Kiehl and Shields [2005]. The x-axis is the scaling of tropospheric methane from 1x (700 ppbv) to 5000x (this whole range is plausible). There is ozone collapse starting from around 750x. This decrease in ozone and increase in UV could play an important role in the mass extinction at that time. From Lamarque et al., submitted to Paleoceanography, 2006

36. Greenland ice sheet Volume ~ 2.8 million km 3 (~7 m sea level equivalent) Area ~ 1.7 million km 2 Mean thickness ~ 1.6 km Accumulation ~ 500 km 3 /yr Surface runoff ~ 300 km 3 /yr Iceberg calving ~ 200 km 3 /yr Annual accumulation (Bales et al., 2001) Bill Lipscomb, LANL

37. Unstable Glaciers Surface melt on Greenland ice sheet descending into moulin, a vertical shaft carrying the water to base of ice sheet. Source: Roger Braithwaite

38. Effect of 6 m sea level rise Composite satellite image taken by Landsat Thematic Mapper, 30-m resolution, supplied by the Earth Satellite Corporation. Contour analysis courtesy of Stephen Leatherman. Florida; h < 6 m in green region

39. Potential Configuration of CCSM4 Atmosphere Ocean Coupler Sea IceLand C/N Cycle Dyn. Veg. Ecosystem & BGC Gas chem. Prognostic Aerosols Upper Atm. Land Use Hansen and Sato, 2001

40. The timeline for IPCC AR5 Assumptions: It is likely that the AR5 report will be issued 6 years after AR4, in 2013. Following the precedent in AR4, the simulations will have to be finished three years ahead, in 2010. Thus, CCSM4 has to be ready for production in 2009. CCSM4 has to be ready for testing in 2008. 20062007200820092010201120122005 AR5 ProcessCCSM4 DevelopmentRelease Testing

41. Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level 41 List of Nominations Climate Simulation Lab. Blue Vista is now online. CCSM allocated 2.5M GAUs over 18 months; 89% of request; 61% of total allocated. Climate End Station. Oak Ridge Cray X1E & XT3 –CCSM Development (Gent) 0.5M 0.3M –Biogeochemistry (NCAR, ORNL) 0.7M 0.1M –Climate Change (Washington) 0.5M –High-Res Atmosphere (Hack) 0.2M Total of 2.3M hours in FY06. Increase of 50% in CGD’s 06 computer allocation. Increased Computer Time for CCSM

42. Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level 42 List of Nominations Computational Characteristics of CCSM3 CCSM3 has been climate-validated and run on: –IBM Power 3 and 4 systems –SGI Altix systems –SGI Origin systems –Cray X1 vector systems (work on XT3 and XD1 underway) –NEC SX vector systems –Specific Xeon linux systems (work on Opteron underway) Computational requirements for CCSM3 on Power 4s: –T31 land/atm  3 o ocean/ice: 62CPU hrs/sim. year –T42 land/atm  1 o ocean/ice: 292 CPU hrs/sim. year –T85 land/atm  1 o ocean/ice: 1146 CPU hrs/sim. year

43. CCSM FY 2006 Funding –NSF Base Funds (Project Leader, travel, misc.) $99,000 –CMAP Funds Scientists0.7 FTE $191,400 CSEG5.0 FTE $862,000 Working Group Liaisons3.2 FTE $446,000 –Atmosphere, Ocean, Land, Biogeo Admin Support/Project Office0.75 FTE $ 94,000 Meetings and Workshop $165,000 Total $1,758,400 -NSF Special Funds -SE (Portability)0.50 FTE $ 90,000 -Polar WG Liaison1.0 FTE $150,000 -Total $240,000 Other (Killeen) – SE (Portability)0.50 FTE $ 94,300

44. CCSM FY 2007 Funding Needs –Polar Climate WG Liaison (David Bailey); Funds carry through December 2006. Proposal submitted to NSF Polar Programs. –Software Engineer on NSF Special and Other Funds (Jon Wolfe). Funds through FY 2006. –Software Engineer on 1/3 NASA ESMF, 1/3 Killeen, and 1/3 CGD Funds (Erik Kluzek). Funds through FY 2006. DOE SciDAC I Proposal. Funds through FY06.$501,200 DOE SciDAC II Proposal. To be submitted.$714,000

45. Current SSC Members and Terms Gordon Bonan, NCAR 8/1/2003 7/31/2007 Chris Bretherton, U Washington 1/1/2002 12/31/2006 Julie Cole, U Arizona 1/1/2006 12/31/2007 Bill Collins, NCAR 1/1/2006 12/31/2007 Scott Doney, WHOI 6/1/2002 6/30/2008 Peter Gent, NCAR 7/1/2005 6/30/2007 Steve Ghan, PNNL 1/1/2006 12/31/2007 Jim Hurrell, NCAR No term Bill Large, NCAR 1/1/2003 12/31/2006 Danny McKenna, NCAR 1/1/2001 12/31/2006 Ben Santer, UCA/PCMDI 8/1/2003 7/31/2007 Mariana Vertenstein, NCAR 9/15/2004 9/14/2006

46. CONCLUSIONS IPCC work and special journal issues have gone well. There is now a 420 yr coupled integration with the FV core that is equivalent to the CCSM3 IPCC simulations. There are other biases in the CCSM3 that are currently being addressed, with varying degrees of success. Updated CSM1 biogeochemistry is running in CCSM3. The land component intercomparison is underway. Work on including indirect aerosol effects, the land ice component, and atmospheric chemistry have started.

48. The CCSM Distinguished Achievement Award for 2006 This award was presented to Byron Boville. The ceremony was held at NCAR on Friday, May 26 th 2006.

49. Byron Arthur Boville 8/25/1953 6/6/2006