1. Intro Opportunity for Higher Education in a Perfect Storm The Inter-Ivy, First Generation College Student Network Brown University Providence, Rhode Island February 28, 2015 Tom Mortenson Senior Scholar, The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education Higher Education Policy Analyst, Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY

14. The Perfect Storm Reality versus Policy Demographics Labor Markets State Policy Choices Federal Policy Choices Consequences for (some) students Is this class warfare?

15. The Perfect Storm Realities: Stages of economic development: Primary: agriculture, natural resources Secondary: manufacturing Tertiary: human capital Dynamic demography Shrinking white/growing minority populations Growing shares of poor children in K-12 and higher education Aging population, living longer Globalization

16. The Perfect Storm Federal policy choices: Progressive policy era: 1862 to 1980 1862: Morrill Land Grant Act 1895: Second Morrill Land Grant Act 1944: Servicemen’s Readjustment Act 1957: National Defense Education Act 1965: Higher Education Act 1972: Pell Grant program 1978: Middle Income Student Assistance Act Regressive policy era: 1980 to present 1981, 1982, 1994: Pell Grant maximum award reduced 1987: Federal aid moves away from need-based grants Aging population, living longer

17. The Perfect Storm State policy choices: Progressive policy era: to 1980 Universal K-12 education State teachers’ colleges Junior colleges Need-based grant aid Increased funding efforts for higher education Regressive policy era: 1980 to present Cutbacks in state appropriations efforts Colleges and universities raise tuition charges to students Growth in merit based scholarship programs

18. The Perfect Storm Institutional policy choices: Progressive policy era: to 1980 Universal K-12 education State teachers’ colleges Junior colleges Need-based grant aid Increased funding efforts for higher education Regressive policy era: 1980 to present Enrollment management Prestige race (U.S. News) Revenue replacement: full pay versus institutional aid, non- residents versus state residents Research versus instruction in public 4-year institutions

19. The Perfect Storm Reality versus Policy Demographics Labor Markets State Policy Choices Federal Policy Choices Consequences for (some) students Is this class warfare?

20. K-12 School Lunch Program

23. Low Income Student Shares of Total

24. The Perfect Storm Reality versus Policy Demographics Labor Markets State Policy Choices Federal Policy Choices Consequences for (some) students Is this class warfare?

29. The Perfect Storm Reality versus Policy Demographics Labor Markets State Policy Choices Federal Policy Choices Consequences for (some) students Is this class warfare?

35. Need-Based Grant Share of State Student Financial Aid

36. The Perfect Storm Reality versus Policy Demographics Labor Markets State Policy Choices Federal Policy Choices Consequences for (some) students Is this class warfare?

37. Need-Based Share of Federal Student Financial Aid

38. Purchasing Power of Pell Grant

39. The Perfect Storm Reality versus Policy Demographics Labor Markets State Policy Choices Federal Policy Choices Consequences for (some) students Is this class warfare?

43. Pell Grant Shares in 4-Year & 2- Year

44. Tertiary Type-A Degree Attain 25-34 yr olds OECD 2003

47. Projected Tertiary Type-A Degree attain OECD 2020

48. The Perfect Storm Reality versus Policy Demographics Labor Markets State Policy Choices Federal Policy Choices Consequences for (some) students Is this class warfare?

56. Download this PowerPoint from: www.postsecondary.org Email to request PowerPoint from: tom@postsecondary.org Final Contact Information:

57. Financial Need Analysis Model Cost of Attendance Tuition and fees Room and board Books and supplies Personal and medical care Transportation Less: Expected family contribution Income and assets Family size Number of children enrolled in college Equals: Financial need Gift aid: grants, scholarships, waivers Earnings from work/study Education loans: subsidized/unsubsidized Stafford, PLUS Federal tax credits

58. Financial Resources & Barriers

59. Mean Unmet Financial Need by Quartiles

60. Mean Student W/L Burden

61. Mean Net Price to Family

62. Mean Net to Family as a % of Parents’ Income