1. Employment Trendswww.ilo.org/trends Millennium Development Goals Employment Indicators Theo Sparreboom Employment Trends International Labour Organization Geneva, Switzerland Astana October 2009

2. Employment Trendswww.ilo.org/trends MDG Employment Indicators Overview Background Employment indicators Global and regional estimates and trends Monitoring national labour markets

3. Employment Trendswww.ilo.org/trends Following the 2005 World Summit, and the work of the Commission for Social Development as well as the Inter- Agency and Expert Group on MDG indicators, a new target has been included under MDG1 (Target 1b): Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including for women and young people MDG Employment Indicators Background The new target is monitored using four new employment indicators, which are additional to the existing indicator under MDG3 on gender equality.

4. Employment Trendswww.ilo.org/trends MDG Employment Indicators Background All five employment indicators (under MDG1b and MDG3) are explained in detail in the Guide to the new Millennium Development Goals Employment Indicators, which is available at: http://www.ilo.org/public/english/employment/docu/index.htm The Guide includes definitions, data sources, calculations and analytical examples. The Guide also includes the full set of Decent Work Indicators, which allows for comprehensive monitoring of decent work.

5. Employment Trendswww.ilo.org/trends MDG1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, Target B (‘decent work’) Employment-to-population ratios for persons aged 15+ and youth (15-24) by sex Vulnerable employment rate by sex Working poverty rate Labour productivity growth rate MDG Employment Indicators MDG3 Promote gender equality and empower women Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector

6. Employment Trendswww.ilo.org/trends Employment-to-population ratios for persons aged 15+ and youth (15-24) by sex The EPR measures the proportion of a country’s working age population that is employed EPR= Total employment/working age population * 100% Source of data: labour force survey or other household survey/population census with data on population and employment MDG1B indicators Employment-to-population ratio

7. Employment Trendswww.ilo.org/trends There is no single ‘correct’ employment-to-population ratio, but national EPRs are typically between 50-75 per cent Careful analysis of EPRs can be used to identify labour market issues such as low incomes, inadequate social security or gender imbalances. Analysis should cover comparisons of EPRs between labour market groups defined by sex or age, international comparisons, comparisons over time, etc. Analysis of labour market issues often necessitates investigation of additional indicators, e.g. vulnerable employment rates, unemployment rates, or enrolment rates in education. MDG1B indicators Employment-to-population ratio

8. Employment Trendswww.ilo.org/trends MDG1B indicators Employment-to-population ratio Source: ILO, Trends Econometric Models, July 2009 Employment-to-population ratio, selected regions, 1991-2008

9. Employment Trendswww.ilo.org/trends Source: ILO, Trends Econometric Models, July 2009 MDG1B indicators Employment-to-population ratio Employment-to-population ratio, CSEE & CIS, 1991-2008, by sex

10. Employment Trendswww.ilo.org/trends Vulnerable employment rate for persons aged 15+ by sex The vulnerable employment rate is a measure of the more vulnerable statuses of employment, namely own account workers and contributing family workers Vulnerable employment rate = (number of own-account workers + number of contributing family workers)/total employment * 100% The rate is typically related to level of GDP per capita Source of data: labour force survey or other household surveys with data on status in employment MDG1B indicators Vulnerable employment rate

11. Employment Trendswww.ilo.org/trends MDG1B indicators Vulnerable employment rate Source: ILO, Key Indicators of the Labour Market, 5 th ed., 2007 Vulnerable employment rate, selected countries ranked by GDP per capita

12. Employment Trendswww.ilo.org/trends Source: ILO, Trends Econometric Models, July 2009 MDG1B indicators Vulnerable employment rate Global vulnerable employment rate, 1997-2007

13. Employment Trendswww.ilo.org/trends Working poverty rate for persons aged 15+ The working poor are defined as employed persons living in a household whose members are estimated to be below the nationally-defined poverty line Working poverty rate = working poor/total employment* 100% Source of data: household surveys with both employment and income & expenditure data; if data on employment and poverty come from different sources, an approximation may be used to arrive at the working poverty rate (see the Guide to the new Millennium Development Goals Employment Indicators) MDG1B indicators Working poverty rate

14. Employment Trendswww.ilo.org/trends MDG1B indicators Working poverty rate Working poverty US$ 1.25, by region, 1997 and 2007 Source: ILO, Trends Econometric Models, July 2009

15. Employment Trendswww.ilo.org/trends Labour productivity represents the amount of output achieved per unit of labour input Labour productivity = GDP [measured at constant market prices in national currency]/ total employment Labour productivity growth rate is measured as the annual change in GDP per person employed Labour productivity can be used to assess to which extent the economic environment allows for the creation of decent employment opportunities Source of data: labour force survey or other household survey/population census with data on employment, in combination with data from national accounts MDG1B indicators Growth rate of labour productivity

16. Employment Trendswww.ilo.org/trends MDG1B indicators Growth rate of labour productivity Source: ILO, Trends Econometric Models, July 2009

17. Employment Trendswww.ilo.org/trends MDG Employment Indicators Global & regional estimates and trends More detailed analysis is provided in Global Employment Trends reports and updates, which include additional indicators, available at: http://www.ilo.org/trends Global Employment Trends reports and updates are based on country information, in particular information from labour force surveys stored in international repositories (ILO, OECD, etc.) In addition, (benchmark) data on population (UN), labour force (ILO), GDP (IMF and World Bank), and poverty (World Bank) is used.

18. Employment Trendswww.ilo.org/trends MDG Employment Indicators Global & regional estimates and trends The series of Global Employment Trends uses econometric models to address the issue of missing values at the country level The main purpose of the models is to generate regional estimates in the absence of a complete set of country data on employment, unemployment and working poverty The models are also used to generate short term projections (scenarios) at the regional and global level, based on a set of specific assumptions

19. Employment Trendswww.ilo.org/trends Global & regional estimates and trends Labour market scenarios for 2009 Global employment-to-population rate, 2000- 2009

20. Employment Trendswww.ilo.org/trends Global & regional estimates and trends Labour market scenarios for 2009 Employment-to-population rate in CSEE&CIS, 2000- 2009

21. Employment Trendswww.ilo.org/trends Global & regional estimates and trends Labour market scenarios for 2009 Unemployment rate in CSEE&CIS, 2000- 2009

22. Employment Trendswww.ilo.org/trends Global & regional estimates and trends Labour market scenarios for 2009 Vulnerable employment rate in CSEE&CIS, 2000- 2009

23. Employment Trendswww.ilo.org/trends MDG Employment Indicators Monitoring national labour markets Key Indicators of the Labour Market, 6 th edition, contains a broader set of employment indicators, with an analysis of recent trends for each indicator. Indicators on the volume of employment, including labour force participation and employment-to-population rates, hours of work, underemployment, part-time employment Employment by status and sector Educational attainment Wage and earning indices Labour productivity The KILM also includes a section with country examples of analysis of the MDG employment indicators, and their linkages with other indicators.

24. Employment Trendswww.ilo.org/trends KILM 2009 Chapter 1c. MDG Employment Indicators – Analysis of five MDG employment indicators for Ukraine: Regional comparisons Linkages between indicators (e.g. productivity, wages and poverty) Many possibilities for additional disaggregations (e.g. by geographical area, age, sex, etc.) Scope for deeper analysis using other employment indicators (e.g. employment by sector) and other indicators (set of decent work indicators, e.g. wage developments, poverty) MDG Employment Indicators Monitoring national labour markets

25. Employment Trendswww.ilo.org/trends Thank you!