1. Tools and Analysis to Support Freight System Resilience Transportation Logistics Spring 2009

2. Why Resilience? Supply chains leaner and longer Sense that disruptions are or will become, more common Significant economic consequences from disruptions A complex problem

3. Complexity Enterprises are dynamic actors Economics are not well documented and vary by organization Multitude of events and consequences External disruptions outside the purview of transportation Consequences depend on actions Existing economic models poorly suited

4. System Elements ConceptDefinition Resilience the “ability to recover from or adjust easily to misfortune or change” Physical Infrastructure the system of network of nodes and links (e.g. port facilities, distribution centers, warehouses, intermodal yards, bridges, rail lines, and roadways) sensors, and information technology infrastructure that support freight transportation and travel. Managing Organization the unit that oversees the construction, maintenance, and performance of the freight transportation physical infrastructure. This includes the management, utilization, and dissemination of roadway data. System Users business enterprises that move goods on the transportation infrastructure and utilize roadway information.

5. ConceptDefinition Infrastructure Resilience the ability of the network to move goods in the face of infrastructure failure, either through a reduction in capacity, a complete failure, or a failure in the information infrastructure to provide information. Managing Organization Resilience “the capacity to meet priorities and achieve goals in a timely and efficient manner in order to contain losses”. Enterprise Resilience the ability of an enterprise to move goods in a timely and efficient manner in the face of infrastructure disruption. Freight Transportation System Resilience the ability for the freight transportation system to absorb shocks and reduce the consequences of disruptions. Freight transportation system resilience can be deconstructed along its component dimensions: the infrastructure, the managing organization, and the system users. Resilience Strategies actions or behaviors of users or managing organizations, that promote resilience in one or a number of dimensions of the freight transportation system.

6. Measuring the Disruption

7. Temporal Component Mitigation Preparedness Response Recovery

8. Properties Examples of Applications of Resilience Contribution to Freight Transportation System Resilience Physical InfrastructureManaging Organization User RedundancyAvailability of multiple & alternate routing options Multiple information sources & points of delivery Multiple parts & materials suppliers ; information backed up on distributed servers Promotes flexibility ; supports robustness AutonomyThe ability of highway system to function when air space closed; independent signal controls for each intersection Independence of functional units in an organization, e.g. approvals & decision making can be independent of established hierarchies Independence of functional units in an enterprise, e.g. procurement, billing, manufacturing, & distribution Supports system operability despite the failure of individual system components ; supports robustness CollaborationWorking partnership between federal, state, regional an d local public agencies to plan, construct and operate the full freight transportation network to optimize system use Good internal communication across divisions & external communication with system users ; leadership across all levels of the organization Public-private partnerships to build relationships between organizations Supports innovative problem solving, reduces miscommunications, spreads risk across groups Promotes network, versus local, freight system optimization and resiliency.

9. Properties Examples of Applications of Resilience Contribution to Freight Transportation System Resilience Physical Infrastructure Dimension Managing Organization Dimension User Dimension EfficiencyNetwork designs that reduce travel time between origin and destination Use of effective mechanisms to prioritize spending within the organization and on infrastructure Coordination across the supply chain with relationships built across the different parties Allows resources to be spent on activities or projects that provide most benefit to the users AdaptabilityDesigned with short life- spans & the intent for regular replacement or for the capability to expand capacity without total facility reconstruction ; ability to assume diversity functions (e.g. adaptable- use HOV lanes) Familiarity of roles and responsibilities across levels of the organization ; cross-trained employees ; leadership can be engaged at all levels. Defined roles and protocols during disruption and recovery phases. Ability to postpone decision making & shipping ; build-to- order business model Promotes flexibility & system efficiency ; supports robustness InterdependenceSeamless mode transfers ; intermodal facilities Relationships are established across separate, but related agencies & within agencies ; mutual understanding of the value & benefit from interaction Standardization of parts & interchangeability Exhibits smooth connections and transitions across parts of the system ; promotes system efficiency ; spreads risk across the system to reduce risk

10. Agenda Enterprise behavior Infrastructure connectivity and flow Washington Potatoes

11. WSDOT Phase 1 Recommendations 1. Identify and Segment Customers of the Transportation System 2. Identify and quantify the objective of a FSR Plan for this region 3. Conduct a vulnerability assessment of the region’s transportation network 4. Create public/private collaboration mechanisms 5. Determine what regulatory and policy procedures need to be put into place 6. Agree on priority and trigger setting processes 7. Conduct a small-scale in-house simulation 8. Test the plan with a large scale simulation

12. Enterprise Behavior As users of the system enterprises also contribute to system performance Better enterprise planning creates better outcomes Understanding enterprise behavior allows us to understand the current behavior and triggers

13. Types of Disruptions Supply Demand Administrative Resource availability Transportation

14. STRATEGIESCATEGORY REPORTED BY (ENTERPRISES ) RelationshipsEnablerA, D, F, G, J Use of Information & TechnologyEnablerB, D, G,H, I CommunicationEnablerA, B, D,F, G Flexible CultureEnablerA, F, H Flexible TransportationTacticA, F, G, H C-TPAT CertificationTacticA, E DC Structure, Size of NetworkTacticD,E, H Resilient Nature of SuppliersTacticF Expedited FreightTacticA, D,H, I Use of Multiple Ports/CarriersTacticB, E, H Employees OverseasTacticB Extra Capacity at DCTacticC Off-Peak DeliveriesTacticE Domestic SourcingTacticE Premium TransportationTacticH, I, J

15. Summary Response to transportation disruption correlated with level of other risks inherent in supply chain Tactics decrease efficiency and competitiveness outside of disrupted periods Operational and communications solutions offer benefit in most cases

16. Infrastructure

17. GIS Tool Development Intermodal layer for each mode and terminal type Cost functions to capture “cost” of flow along a link Logic to ensure connectivity and capture capacity constraints Can measure transportation impacts of capacity reductions and closures using scenario analysis

18. Complexity of Movements

19. Case Studies WA Potatoes  Fresh and processed  Fresh to market  Estimate consequences of 24 hour closure of I-90 WA Fuel  Terminal racks to diesel stations  Identify infrastructure weaknesses and dependencies  Identify priority access routes

20. Goals Estimate the truck trips per day within the state of Washington that are necessary to move potatoes between production locations, processing facilities, and consumption locations. Consider a disruption to the transportation network, and identify the impact on these truck trips.

21. Motivation for the Potato Case Study Exercise the GIS tool Identify the level of effort and data collection challenges of this approach to understanding the impacts from disruptions  Understand the movements of potatoes in the state

22. Potato Data Elements  Potato prices at field, retailer purchase price, and retail price  Origins and destinations for potatoes and potato products  Volumes of potatoes for each origin and destination for all potato products  Quantity of potato loss  Ratios of fresh potatoes to potato products  Percentage of potatoes processed into each product in each growing region  Volume of potatoes held in a truckload for each product  Location and type of potato processors  Mode split  Exit points for potatoes destined for locations outside the state

23. Data Sources AC Neilson United States Department of Agriculture  Market News  National Agriculture Statistics Washington State Potato Commission/WSU Survey Discussions with ConAgra Foods/Lamb Weston State of Washington Potato Committee (SWPC): Disposition

25. Comments on potato production Modeled potato production as 3 regions, all trips originate in centroids of these regions 94% capture rate Skagit ValleyUpper BasinLower Basin Production (Short Tons)162,7421,972,6262,197,012 Recovery Rate0.94 Total Purchased152,9771,854,2682,065,191 Percent Fresh86%14% Percent Frozen073% Percent Dehydrated14%11% Percent Chips02%

30. Potato Truck Trips Under normal conditions potato trucks generate just over 11,000 truck miles each day Truck Trips per day Skagit Valley Upper Basin Lower Basin Fresh 16.7928.231.73 Frozen 070.4681.14 Dehydrated 03.984.25 Chip 04.485.04

31. Disruption Close the Cascade mountain passes on I-90, Highway 2, and Highway 12 for one day to replicate the impact of a severe winter storm. SR410 and Highway 20 are closed seasonally. Re-route the potato trucks to the next shortest path between their origin and destination. 20% of all truck trips cross the Cascades.

33. I90 carries most traffic Normal Conditions Truck TripsFreshFrozenDehyChips Hwy 2 East4.3 Skagit to Moses Lake 0.13 Skagit to Spokane 1.40 Skagit to Warden 0.13 Skagit to other US State (excluding Oregon or California) 2.62 Hwy 2 West1.8 Upper Basin to Stanwood 0.401.320.06 I-90 East1.2 Skagit to Kennewick 0.50 Skagit to Yakima 0.37 Skagit to Grandview 0.37 I-90 West32.4 Upper Basin to Seattle 0.561.830.080.09 Upper Basin to Tacoma 0.471.520.07 Upper Basin to Auburn 0.561.830.080.09 Upper Basin to Port of Seattle 3.709.040.520.59 Lower Basin to Seattle 1.284.150.170.20 Lower Basin to Stanwood 0.922.990.120.15 Lower Basin to Port of Seattle 0.350.840.05 410 West10.6 Lower Basin to Tacoma 1.063.460.140.17 Lower Basin to Auburn 1.284.150.170.20 Eastbound favors fresh and northern routes Westbound traffic 70% frozen

34. Disruption Truck TripsFreshFrozenDehyChips SR 14 East5.5 Skagit to Moses Lake0.13 Skagit to Spokane1.40 Skagit to Warden0.13 Skagit to other US State (excluding Oregon or California)2.62 Skagit to Kennewick0.50 Skagit to Yakima0.37 Skagit to Grandview0.37 SR 14 West 44.8 Upper Basin to Stanwood0.401.320.06 Upper Basin to Seattle0.561.830.080.09 Upper Basin to Tacoma0.471.520.07 Upper Basin to Auburn0.561.830.080.09 Upper Basin to Port of Seattle3.709.040.520.59 Lower Basin to Seattle1.284.150.170.20 Lower Basin to Stanwood0.922.990.120.15 Lower Basin to Port of Seattle0.350.840.05 Lower Basin to Tacoma1.063.460.140.17 Lower Basin to Auburn1.284.150.170.20 All rerouted onto SR14 Impacts 50 trucks per day, 45 westbound and 5 eastbound Total truck-miles increase to about 21,000 miles per day, an increase of 78% Greatest impact to frozen potatoes traveling to Western markets

35. Estimated value of a truckload GrowerRetailerConsumer Fresh$1,000$2,000 - $8,000 $7,000 - $50,000 Frozen$40,000 Dehydrated$60,000 Chip$20,000- $40,000

36. Economic Implications Direct Costs  Driver wages, fuel consumption, vehicle operating costs  $13,722 to $32,018 per day or $275 to $640 dollars per truck Indirect Costs  Missed business opportunities, spoiled products, extra transportation costs