1. CUBA-USA RELATIONS: REFLECTIONS Historical Overview Negotiations on Diplomatic Recognition: Key Elements Why Did Obama Do It? Why Did Raúl Do It? A Win-Win Proposition?

2. KEY DATES IN HISTORY 1820sIndependence for Spanish America, but not Cuba 1823Monroe Doctrine + “ripe fruit” doctrine 1898-1902 Spanish-Cuban-American War 1933FDR and “Good Neighbor” Policy 1934-58Era of Fulgencio Batista 1959Cuban Revolution 1961Embargo and Bay of Pigs Invasion 1962Missile Crisis 1990Collapse of Soviet Union 2008Election of Barack Obama 2014Obama-Castro Accord

3. ELEMENTS OF THE ACCORD Process  Reversal of sequence on democracy and diplomacy  Secrecy  Exchange of prisoners Expectations  Cuba at Summit of Americas  Discussions of banking and trade relations  Revision of Cuba as “terrorist”  Democracy and human rights on back burner

4. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE ACCORD Alzugaray: “a radical turn” against decades of hostility and mutual discord Staunch opposition in both countries Raúl: “We have won the war” Recognizes legitimacy of Cuban government Issues ahead:  Ending the embargo  Guantánamo  U.S. relations with dissidents in Cuba  Nationalized U.S. assets

5. GUESSWORK: WHY DID THEY DO IT? Obama  Political legacy  Challenge to Congress  Economic opportunities  Changing sentiments in Florida  Enhancement of “soft power”  Setting terms of 2016 campaign Castro  Stimulate the Cuban economy  Respond to virtual disappearance of Venezuela  Assert legitimacy of regime  Solidify relations throughout Latin America and elsewhere  Protect the Revolution (e.g. from a crisis of succession)

6. A WIN-WIN PROPOSITION?