1. The “Elephant in the Room” Issues in pastoralism research: An informal conversation Peter D. Little and Waktole Tiki Academic Workshop on Mobile Pastoralism, Index Insurance, Computational Sustainability and Policy Innovations for the Arid and Semi-arid Lands of East Africa ILRI Campus, Nairobi Kenya, June 10-11, 2015

2. Goals of the presentation Are there some big fundamental issues and trends in pastoralism research that are missed in micro-level, project based research? I will discuss 10. It builds on an earlier paper I wrote for a volume by Catley, Lind, and Scoones (2012). Present some of the evidence from our current research program on “Climate-induced vulnerability: Pastoralism and livestock marketing chains in southern Ethiopia and northeastern Kenya (CHAINS). Not heavy on empirics! Have an informal conversation!

3. 1. Population Issue Town and settlement growth Demography of mobile pastoralists vs sedentary pastoralists Labor absorptive capacity of Pastoralism: low? In the Borana case settle- ments often in dry season Grazing (deep well areas) Impacts on grazing patterns?

4. 2. Towns matter in pastoral areas For diversification: employment and investment Links to pastoral sector Markets Bring in large numbers of non-pastoralists Politics and policy!

5. 3. Governance and Democracy Issue Related to population and town growth Mobile pastoralists becomes minority in its own areas? Implications for decentralization—”voice of pastoralists?” Elections and democracy

6. 4. Basic Services Issue Health, water, and education always rank highest priorities in participatory assessments. What are we missing here? Where do we start?

7. 5. Education Issue Formal education matters for jobs—productive diversification. Political representation and giving a voice to communities. Fundamental tasks require literacy—basic math, etc. How to deliver education? The costs of education in loss of labor, settlement, etc. Promote sub-division of commons? Youth vs elders

8. 6. Employment issue Youth and unemployment Rural Informality (enormous employment)

9. 6. Employment issue (cont) Do we understand the employment multipliers of livestock trade, pastoralism, etc.

10. > 300 BUSINESSES AT HAROBAKE MARKET, BORANA, ETHIOPIA

11. 7. Domestic markets matter

12. 8. The credit Issue Credit flows up the market chain (from smallest to largest traders) Default on credit and risk is high—the smallest traders are hurt the most—more than 30 percent of traders experience credit default

13. 9. The Herd Structure Issue: why so little change? Evidence: Dairy and breeding herds, Borana, Ethiopia, 2013 Male camels Female camels Male cattle Female cattle Male goats Female goats Total number351002941313246964 % of herd26 %74%18.5%81.5%20.5%79.5% SOURCE: DATA FROM CHAINS STUDY, 2013

14. ANIMALExportRegional Cross- Border a National Domestic Local Domestic Cattle1. Bulls 3-7 year 340-380 kg 1. Bulls < 3 years; 2. Large Oxen and Bulls> 7 years 3. Heifers 1. Bulls (non- export quality) and oxen 3-7 yr. 2. Bulls > 7 years 3. Cows > 8 years 1. Bulls > 7 years 2. Cows > 8 years 3. Oxen > 7 years Camel1. Males 3-8 years Minimal Goats1. Males 18-24 months and 24-32 kg 1. Males > 2 years 2. Females >4 years 1. Males > 2 years 2. Females >4 years Sheep1. Males 18-24 months and 24-32 kg 1. Males > 2 years 2. Females >4 yrs 1. Males > 2 years 2. Females >4 yrs Contrast: Many Markets demand male animals? Southern Ethiopian Livestock Markets, 2013

15. Pastoralist Bush trader (male animals) Borana, 2013 Southern Somalia, 1988

16. Bush trader selling for export trade, Borana, Ethiopia

17. 10. Timing of livestock sales matter Determines benefits for producers Why do herders sell—still little change in past 30 years. What has changed?

18. Source: CHAINS Data, 2013 CHALLENGE The ‘why’ & ‘when’ herders sell animals

19. Gradual Asset DeaccumulationAccelerated DeaccumulationMassive DeaccumulationReaccumulation Accumulation (+) Decummulation (-) Asset Poor Households Asset Rich Households Livelihood Strategies  Sell livestock  Grain stocks decline  Food expenditures increase  Search for off-farm employ’t  Conserve cash  Sell wood  Borrow from merchants and family  Maintain and invest in social networks  Livestock distress sales and weight loss; livestock consumed  Consume wild roots/leaves  search for off-farm emply’t  Out-migration  Go to live with relatives  Little investment in social networks  Sell h’hold items+implements  Increased sharecropping  Consume seed  Extreme livestock mortality  Grain stocks dry up  Homes deconstructed to sell wood and corrugated iron  Outmigration if health allows  Families and communities unravel  Social networks difficult to maintain Unknown Market Characteristics  Land rental rates increase  Borrowing costs increase  Wage rate declines slightly  Grain prices rise slightly  Livestock prices begin to decline  Diets and labor productivity maintained  Wage rates fall; land rental rates rise  Labor demand declines  Grain prices spike in thin mkts  Livestock prices plummet  giving from the well-off to poor w/in community  Borrowing costs spike  Land rental rates fall  Wood/livestock prices collapse  Cereal prices uncertain due to food aid  Community network collapses  Malnutrition, disease, death Unknown Climate/Drought Risk (multi-year cycles) (Roth and Little, 1998)

20. Improve local bargaining/price and timing of sales– Address feed problem

22. Mobility affects market access: Fixed markets are not where best grazing is, esp in droughts (map by Sarah Guagliardo)

23. Uneven Impacts and Losses due to Feed shortage (drought) Photos by Dejene N. Debsu

24. ASANTE SANA Acknowledgements: Support for this research was provided by the Climate-Induced Vulnerability and Pastoralist Livestock Marketing Chains in southern Ethiopia and northeastern Kenya (CHAINS) Project of the Innovation Lab for Adapting Livestock Systems to Climate Change (ALS-CC) Collaborative Research Program (USAID Grant No. EEM-A-00-10- 00001). The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). Thanks also due to members of CHAINS project: Dejene Negassa Debsu Polly Ericksen Uriel Kitron Hussein A. Mahmoud Workneh Negatu Carla Roncoli