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1 1Q | 2015 As of December 31, 2014 Guide to the Markets ®
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2 Recessions, Expansions and Bull Markets jpmorganfunds.com/bench
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3 Energy: Supply, Demand and Prices 28 GTM – U.S.
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4 Energy Price Impacts 29 GTM – U.S.
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5 Economic Growth and the Composition of GDP 16 GTM – U.S.
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6 Inflation 26 GTM – U.S.
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7 Labor Market Perspectives Economy Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of 1/12/15. Net Job Creation Since Feb. 2010 – Millions of Jobs Employment – Total Private Payroll Total job gain/loss (thousands) 8.8mm jobs lost 11.2 mm jobs gained Labor Force Participation Rate Dec. 2014: 62.7% Ratio of Unemployed to Job Openings Oct. 2014: 1.9 24 GTM – U.S.
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8 Civilian Unemployment Rate and Year-over-Year Growth in Wages of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers Unemployment and Wages Economy 49-yr. Average: 4.3% Seasonally adjusted, percent Dec. 2014: 5.6% Oct. 2009: 10.0% Dec. 2014: 1.6% 50-yr. Average: 6.1% Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of 1/12/15. Wage Growth Unemployment 23 GTM – U.S.
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9 The Fed and Interest Rates 32 GTM – U.S.
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10 High Yield Bonds 39 GTM – U.S.
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11 Emerging Market Debt 40 GTM – U.S.
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12 Corporate Profits and Leverage 8
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13 Stock Valuation Measures: S&P 500 Index 7 GTM – U.S.
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14 Multiples and Confidence jpmorganfunds.com/bench
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15 Returns and Valuations by Sector 6 GTM – U.S.
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16 Private nonresidential fixed investment, % of GDP Long-term Drivers of Economic Growth Economy Gross Investment and Depreciation Real Capital Stock Growth 2013: 1.6% Depreciation Gross investment spending Nonresidential fixed assets, year-over-year % chg Five year moving average of year-over-year % change Growth in Employment and Real Output Per Worker* Real Output Per Worker Employment Growth Average growth 50 yr.10 yr.5 yr. Employment1.5%0.5%1.1% Real Output Per Worker 1.5%1.1%1.3% GDP3.0%1.6%2.4% Source: BEA, BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *Labor Force includes the population age 16+ working or looking for work, Real Output Per Worker is calculated as real GDP growth minus civilian employment growth. Averages are calculated as the annualized growth rate. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of 12/31/14. 21 GTM – U.S.
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17 Global Equity Markets 42
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18 Trade and the U.S. Dollar 27
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19 Europe: Cyclical Headwinds and Tailwinds 47 GTM – U.S.
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20 Europe: Unemployment, Inflation and Credit Markets 48 GTM – U.S.
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21 Global Equity Valuations: Developed Markets 54 GTM – U.S.
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22 Demographics and Development 51
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23 Global Equity Valuations: Emerging Markets 55
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24 Asset Class Returns 56
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