1. 1 Why ABoVE? Eric Kasischke, Scott Goetz, John Kimball, Michelle Mack 6 October 2011 2011 NASA Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Joint Science Workshop

2. 2 1. Recent changes in climate are causing significant and novel changes to arctic/boreal ecosystems over large areas that have widespread impacts on society Permafrost thaw is leading to shrinkage of lakes and mobilizing frozen carbon (Photo: G. Grosse) The Slave Lake, Alberta fire in May 2011 was the second largest natural disaster in Canadian history (>$750 million) (Photo: National Post - news.nationalpost.com) Mountain pine beetle outbreaks have accelerated and are spreading (Source: Univ. of Alberta)

3. 3 2. Complex interactions are the norm, with many critical feedbacks to regional and global climate How rapidly will permafrost warm? What are the impacts of permafrost warming? Is there a methane tipping point? What controls burning of organic soils in tundra, forests & peatlands? Photo: M. Kanevskiy Large stocks of soil carbon Widespread permafrost Grosse et al. 2011

4. 4 3. Addressing key uncertainties requires transdisciplinary research in a number of areas unique to HNL regions

5. 5 4. Models of key arctic/boreal processes do not adequately explain current impacts nor can they project future impacts Additional research is needed to –Address known areas of uncertainty (the known unknowns; e.g. ground-layer processes) –Identify novel and new patterns of landscape change and ecosystem reorganization (the unknown unknowns; e.g. tipping points) Crucial data sets are needed to drive and independently to assess models An integrated modeling approach is needed (e.g., the Community Land Model [left]) source: http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/clm/

6. 6 5. Remote sensing data are essential for addressing uncertainties and informing and assessing models

7. 7 1.Longer-term satellite image data (Landsat, AVHRR) 2.New satellite systems scheduled for launch over the next few years (SMAP, IceSat2, OCO-2) 3.NASA Earth Venture missions (CARVE, AirMOSS) 4.Use of airborne remote sensing data to provide unique information products and to prepare for future missions (e.g., DESDynI and HyspIRI)

8. 8 6. ABoVE provides a means to coordinate northern high latitude research conducted by a broad coalition of national & international organizations NSF PP DOE NGEE USGS YRB NCAR FWS, NPS, DOI CCRC DOD SERDP NOAA International Participation IARC, NRCAN NGOs Monitoring/ Assessment Basic Research ABoVE

9. 9 ABoVE Study Domain and Nested Design

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11. 11 ABoVE Study Domain and Nested Design

12. 12 Possible ABoVE Timeline