1. NRL Marine Meteorology Division 2011 65 th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference New Airborne observing strategy: ‘Combo’ deployment of AXBTs and Sondes Ocean observations in developing and mature TC’s based on a new airborne observing strategy: 'Combo' deployments of AXBT’s and GPS dropsondes from long-endurance, multi-altitude reconnaissance flights P. G. Black 1 and J. D. Hawkins 2 1 SAIC, Inc./Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA 2 Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA Collaborators: E. D’Asaro & M. Ohmart- U. Washington; P. Harr, A. Penny, C. DePalma, R. Creasey and H. Hornick- NPS; Y. Jin, S. Chen, J. Cummings, S. Wang, J. Solbrig & M. Surrat- NRL; G. Elliott & G. Foley- BoM-Au; M. Kucas, R. Ballucanag, K. Bench & C. Morris- JTWC; P. Niiler- Scripps; J. Kerling- NAVO; Robert Lee- CORLEE, Lld.; LtCol Roy Deatherage, 53 rd WRS-AFRC 65th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC) 28 February – 3 March, 2011 Miami, Florida

2. NRL Marine Meteorology Division 2011 65 th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference New Airborne observing strategy: ‘Combo’ deployment of AXBTs and Sondes Objectives:  Observe atmosphere and ocean during formation phase of candidate TCs  Observe TC Inner-Core surface wind field and ocean structure, especially during RI/RD.  Observe mature phase ‘cold wake’ formation, structure and time evolution. Technical Approach:  Design and execute WC-130J aircraft flight plans for optimal achievement of ITOP goals.  Employ two WC-130J aircraft/crews with SFMR, AXBT and buoy-deployment capability- transmit data in real-time.  Conduct joint flights of 53 rd WRS WC-130J and DOTSTAR ASTRA.

3. NRL Marine Meteorology Division 2011 65 th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference New Airborne observing strategy: ‘Combo’ deployment of AXBTs and Sondes ITOP DOTSTAR/WC-130J joint observations: Fanapi (2010) 0000 UTC, Sept. 17th0000 UTC, Sept. 18th WC-130J DOTSTAR- ASTRA ITOP Operations 1.Aircraft Module 2.Synoptic surveillance module (Taiwan-NTU/ CWB) 3.Taiwan moorings (4) 4.U. Miami ASIS/EASI moorings (2) 5.Satellite image acquisition (NRL) 6.SAR image acquisition (U. Miami) 7.R/V Revelle + 4 Taiwan research vessels 8.Ship-based AUVs (16)

4. NRL Marine Meteorology Division 2011 65 th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference New Airborne observing strategy: ‘Combo’ deployment of AXBTs and Sondes. WC-130J Ocean Sensor Deployments AXBT/Launcher Drifters - Floats MOOS NRL Mobile Ocean Observing System

5. NRL Marine Meteorology Division 2011 65 th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference New Airborne observing strategy: ‘Combo’ deployment of AXBTs and Sondes 26C Isotherm Depth, D26 Megi Malakas Fanapi ITOP TC tracks and ARGO ocean temperature profiles near point of development showing range of D26 values (Courtesy I-I Lin): TY Fanapi (70m) TY Malakas (40 m) STY Megi (120m) CAT 3 CAT 2 CAT5

6. NRL Marine Meteorology Division 2011 65 th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference New Airborne observing strategy: ‘Combo’ deployment of AXBTs and Sondes Semi-Diurnal Tide in the Philippine Sea Ridges generate internal tide Geometry makes a focus point 9 hr AXBT repeat pattern Temp Diff from Mean Model Ko 70m vertical displacement of 20C isotherm OBS AXBT

7. NRL Marine Meteorology Division 2011 65 th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference New Airborne observing strategy: ‘Combo’ deployment of AXBTs and Sondes 1414 TC Fanapi 14 13 12 14 13 12 1) Slow development over Warm pool-cold eddy 2) Formation over WARM EDDY Fanapi development modulated by ocean features!

8. NRL Marine Meteorology Division 2011 65 th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference New Airborne observing strategy: ‘Combo’ deployment of AXBTs and Sondes Semi-Diurnal Tides Fanapi 13 Sept Warm/Cold Eddy Fanapi 14 Sept Warm Eddy Eddy ocean structure variability greater than that from diurnal tides! ITOP AXBT Data 60 m variation in 26 o C isotherm 100 m variation in 26 o C isotherm 50 m variation in 26 o C isotherm over 9 hr

9. NRL Marine Meteorology Division 2011 65 th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference New Airborne observing strategy: ‘Combo’ deployment of AXBTs and Sondes Surface 12 Sept, 2010 1.Wave growth over deep D26 700 MB 12 Sept, 2010 2.Weak wave vertical consistency Surface 13 Sept, 2010 700 MB 13 Sept, 2010 4.Slow vertical development 5.FANAPI genesis over warm eddy 6.Vertical development established 3.Sfc vortex develops over warm/cold eddies

10. NRL Marine Meteorology Division 2011 65 th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference New Airborne observing strategy: ‘Combo’ deployment of AXBTs and Sondes OHC26 KO EASNF 19 Sept Typhoon Fanapi region 25 20 125 130 Major Eddy Locations Cold Warm A1, A2, A3 moorings

11. NRL Marine Meteorology Division 2011 65 th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference New Airborne observing strategy: ‘Combo’ deployment of AXBTs and Sondes AMSR-E Fanapi Cold Wake Monitoring: Typhoon Phase 20 Sept NRL Hawkins NTU Lin Eddies modulate cold wake 19 Sept

12. NRL Marine Meteorology Division 2011 65 th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference New Airborne observing strategy: ‘Combo’ deployment of AXBTs and Sondes Jangmi Rapid Intensification/Decay Coincides with passage over warm/cold eddy pair prior to Taiwan landfall ITOP/TCS10 STY Megi undergoes RI over large D26 and OHC26 region Similar to TCS08 STY Jangmi RI/RD episode D26 100 m 50 m Cold Eddy Warm Eddy Eddy Boundary Landfall 24252627282930 Sept, 2008 Vmax (kt) RDRI

13. NRL Marine Meteorology Division 2011 65 th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference New Airborne observing strategy: ‘Combo’ deployment of AXBTs and Sondes  Coupled COAMPS-TC continued RI until cold eddy passage and began weakening following passage, prior to landfall.  Uncoupled COAMPS-TC began weakening only after landfall. Surface Max Winds (m s -1 ) 25 26 27 2829 Eddy Landfall Jangmi TCS08 COAMPS-TC Coupled and Uncoupled Intensity Simulation (Courtesy Y. Jin)

14. NRL Marine Meteorology Division 2011 65 th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference New Airborne observing strategy: ‘Combo’ deployment of AXBTs and Sondes Future Plans Develop additional diagnostic analysis tools for TPARC/TCS08 and ITOP/TCS10 aircraft data and companion COAMPS-TC model output fields. Develop operational AXBT/Sonde ‘Combo’ TC data archive to assist in initializing and validating coupled TC prediction models Key Results TC formation process modulated by underlying ocean heat content structure TC Rapid Intensification/Rapid Decay (RI/RD) cycle strongly modulated by underlying ocean eddy pairs Warm and cold eddies modulate cold wake Warm and cold eddy pairs contribute to timing of RI/RD