1. Locating livestock systems, starting with dairy Discussion ELPEN Management meeting 3 ELPEN

2. Geographically specific The ELPEN system needs: Appraise policy impacts at flexible scale (national, regional, local, grid): Policy makers need to know what and where Appraise impacts on the environment (livestock practices in relation to the physical conditions) Appraise impacts on the social environment Why spatially explicit? EU Nuts 2 areas Geographically specific Output map: Phosphate Expected concentration of P in surface water in 2015 under current legislation 0.0 - 0.15 mg/l 0.15 - 0.30 0.30 - 0.60 0.60 - 1.00 1.00 - 2.00 No data ELPEN

3. Problems encountered when locating farms and farm types Availability of consistent up-to-date EU data is limited Aggregated data only on level of administrative entities Little individual farm (survey) data available Individual farm data only linked to administrative entity (usually not to location) If individual farm data available only allowed to present on aggregated level ELPEN

4. Percentage dairy farms of total farms Where are the dairy farms? ELPEN

5. Total proportion of utilised agricultural area used by dairy farms Where are the dairy farms? ELPEN

6. Localization of farm types in the ELPEN system Probability map: per gridcel: probability (%) livestock types farm size Probability map: per gridcel: probability (%) livestock types farm size Probability map: per gridcel: probability (%) livestock types farm size Probability map: per gridcel: probability (%) livestock types farm size National probability maps: per gridcell: probability (%) of livestock types, farm types + size Eurostat data maps with portions of farm / livestock types per gridcell, such that per region the amount and size of livestock / farms coincide with the Eurostat data Allocation model Impact assessments Computations, Knowledge rules ELPEN

7. Localization of livestock systems in each country National statistical data per region Additional national data and maps CORINE map ELPEN Probability map: per gridcel: probability (%) of livestock types, farm type and size overlay Knowledge rules Knowledge rules

8. Allocation procedure in the ELPEN system ELPEN 1) The FSS data -> nr of farms, ha and animals /type /FSS-region 2) Proportional distribution among smaller administrative regions (on the basis of national statistical data) 3) Further allocation among suitable CORINE land cover grids (on the basis of expert rules) 4) Further refinement on the basis of other data e.g. climate, altitude, slope, distance to big cities, etc. (on the basis of expert rules)

9. What information do we need from national experts? (1) For the Proportional distribution among smaller administrative regions 1a) In what regional level do you have your national data on livestock systems by farm type? BE: DK: on county level (NUTS3) in FSS-typology (1999) FR: on department level (NUTS3) in FSS-typologies (1997, ->1999) GE: GR: NL: on farm level (standard NEG-typology, at Alterra/LEI also in FSS-typology) UK: NUTS3 Other?: What level is useful for localization in ELPEN? ELPEN

10. What information do we need from national experts? (2) For the Proportional distribution among smaller administrative regions 1b) The nr of all farms/region + % that has dairy (> 5 cows) 1c) nr. + distribution/region of all farms over farm types (FSS) 1d) nr. + distribution /region of animals (in lu) over animal types 1e) the average size / region of the specialised dairy farms and/or? 1f) nr.ha + distribution /region of land use types over farm types (useful for knowledge rules, not directly for allocation) 1g) ?? ELPEN

11. What information do we need from national experts? (2) For the Proportional distribution among smaller administrative regions 2 What is the data availability, how accurate? Available: Accuracy: Spatial: BE: DK: at the National Statistical Office 100% / 2 years NUTS3 NL: at ALTERRA, LEI 100% / year per farm FR: at the Ministry of Agriculture 10% / 2 years, 100% / 10years NUTS3 GE: GR: UK: other?? ELPEN

12. 3) Why do the distributions of dairy differ between regions? Exercise -> national and regional differences in land use/farm type 4a) Determine the suitability of CORINE classes for dairy Exercise -> FSS statistical data on NUTS2 level combined with 7 CORINE classes 4b) Formulate rules to derive different distributions between regions Exercise -> National data -> NUTS2 level combined with LGN grass + maize What information do we need from national experts? (3) For the Proportional distribution among smaller administrative regions

13. 5) What additonal rules can be used for localising livestock, applied on what other physical / spatial data? BE: DK: land use / bloc + digitized maps of 90% of the perm. Grassland + 25x25m not arable FR: Terreuti Land cover: 12x12km grid (usable for the localization of maize and grassland) GE: GR: NL: LGN Land cover: 25x25m grid (usable for the localization of maize and grassland) UK: Land cover 30x30m (only England?) ??: 6) How durable are the regional distributions ? 7) How durable are your expert rules? What information do we need from national experts? (4) For the Proportional distribution among smaller administrative regions

14. 8) Indicate the dominant dairy breeds per region, durability? Data available: European: FAO + European veterinary association BE: DK: FR: at Institut de l’Elevage, yearly data collection of > 60% of the dairy farms GE: GR: NL: UK: ??: ELPEN Additional information

15. 9) Overview of the main national statistical sources 10) Relevant national physical / spatial data 11) Additional data of whole EU ELPEN More general information

16. Make proposal, including: FR: We make a first proposal for a French student who will do the allocation work next year DK: Erling makes description/county/CORINE class of the distribution of relevant land cover types Short description of work List of deliverables Estimation of time needed Estimation of costs for non-ELPEN members (450 EURO a day) Deadline: ??? FR: Data on NUTS3 level of 1997 as quickly as possible, the student next spring for ca. 6 months. DK: end of October Practical issues: ELPEN