1. Public Opinion and Political Behaviors Unit IIC Voting, Campaigns, and Elections

2. Political Efficacy n Voting in elections n Learning and understanding political knowledge n Having political discussions n Attending political meetings n Forming interest groups n Contacting public officials n Campaigning for a candidate, political party, ballot issue n Financial contributions n Running for office n Protesting public policies and/or officials

3. Voting - The Democratic Process n Voting exemplifies a “government by the people” n The American electorate determine policy and policymakers n Suffrage is the right to vote - regulated by the states n Vote in local, state, and national elections

4. Voter Requirements n An American citizen of 18 years or older may vote n States determine registration requirements and qualifications –State residency requirement of usually 30 days –Prisoners n Motor-Voter Law (National Voter Registration Act of 1993) –Register to vote when applying/renewing driver’s license –Register by mail

5. Expansion of Suffrage n Religious and property qualifications eliminated by 1800 n 15th Amendment (1870) –Guaranteed blacks the right to vote n 19th Amendment (1920) –Guaranteed women the right to vote n 23rd Amendment (1961) –Guaranteed right to vote for D.C. n 24th Amendment (1964) –Prohibited poll taxes –Harper v. Virginia Board of Elections (1966)* n Civil Rights Act of 1964 and Voting Rights Acts of 1965 –Eliminated voting restrictions for blacks –Grandfather clauses, white primaries, literacy tests n 26th Amendment (1971) –Guaranteed right to vote for 18 years and older

6. Who Votes? n High Level of Education n Higher Incomes n White-Collar Workers n Older Generations n Whites n Women n Religious n Union Members n Strong Community Members n Strong Political Party Members n Competitive Election Districts

7. Why Won’t People Vote? n Negative campaigns n Numerous and frequent elections n Lack of party identification n Similarity between candidates n Mistrust in government n Apathy or Status Quo n Lack of political efficacy n Voter registration difficulties n Feeling of not belonging to a community

8. How People Vote n Vote based on political party n Vote based on the issues n Vote based on campaigns n Vote based on coalitions

9. Voting Based on Political Party n Party affiliation arguably the primary determinant for a voter n Most voters are Democrats, but not as firmly dedicated n Republicans successful with independents and moderates and have higher voter turnout

10. Voting Based on the Issues n Prospective Voting –Vote based on information of issues and candidates –Ex. Pro-life citizen votes for Bush over Gore in 2000 n Retrospective Voting –Vote based on past events whether successful or failed –Ex. The economy suffered during Bush’s (R) administration hurting McCain’s (R) campaign against Obama (D) in 2008

11. Voting Based on the Campaign n Reawakens partisan loyalties of voters n Provides voters chance to witness how candidates handle the spotlight and responsibility n Allows voters to judge a candidate’s character and values

12. Voting Based on a Coalition n Democrats –Strong loyalties among blacks and Jews F Support for minority-based policies (affirmative action, civil rights) F However, limited popular contribution –Moderate support among most hispanics F Support for pro-immigration policies F Low voter turnout –Catholics and unions divided F Based on conservative stance on social issues (abortion) n Republicans –Strong loyalties among businesses and conservatives F Support for tax cuts and limited economic regulation F Social conservatives (evangelicals) –Moderate support among farmers and professionals F Farmers and professionals can switch based on economy

13. Types of Elections Primary Elections n Primary Elections –Nominating elections which voters choose which candidate from each party to run in general election –Closed Primary F Only voters registered in the party may vote for candidate –Open Primary F Voters choose whichever candidates of either party by selecting party in the voting booth –Blanket Primary F Voters choose whichever candidate of any party for different positions –Runoff Primary F Election between top two candidates who received the most votes but neither received the majority of votes n California Democratic Party v. Jones (2000)

14. 2008 Democratic Primary Election California ballot

15. Types of Elections General Elections n Voters choose between all candidates nominated by political party or running as independents n Anyone of any or no political party may choose whichever candidate no matter party affiliation

16. Types of Elections Special Elections n Voters must decide on an issue or a candidate in special circumstances not related to a primary or general election n Initiative –Citizens propose a new law with enough signatures n Referendum –Legislatures refer a law to be voted by the people n Recall –Citizens petition to hold an election to choose to remove a public official n Special elections are only held at the state or local levels

17. Congressional Elections n Held every two years on even-numbered years –Every two years to elect Representatives –Senatorial elections may be held (1/3 rd of Senators) n Mid-Term Elections –“Off-Year” Elections held between presidential elections –Lower voter turnout n Incumbency Effect –Generally win elections due to low voter turn out, success in office, or good campaigning F Reelection Rates of U.S. House and U.S. Senate (1964-2012) Reelection Rates of U.S. House and U.S. Senate (1964-2012) –Franking privilege F Free mailings to constituents n Coattail Effect –Weak or less known candidates win based on success of popular presidential candidate through party affiliation

18. Franking Privilege

19. Congressional Elections Congressional Apportionment and Districts n Congress established number of representatives for House at 435 (1911) –Each state with at least one representative –Currently, one representative per 709,760 n Reapportionment every 10 years based on national census n Redistricting –States draw congressional districts –Districts must be relatively equal n Consequences –Malapportionment - districts of unequal size –Gerrymandering F Drawing districts to favor a political party or group –Baker v. Carr (1962) –Wesberry v. Sanders (1964) –Reynolds v. Sims (1964) –Shaw v. Reno (1993)

20. Florida’s 2013 U.S. House Districts

21. Gerrymandering

22. Congressional Elections Primary Elections n Candidate gathers signatures through a following to be placed on ballot n Primary election determines party nominee

23. Presidential Elections n Held every four years n Phases of Presidential Candidacy: –Exploration –Announcement –Primaries and Caucuses –Nominating Conventions –General Election Campaign –Electoral College

24. Presidential Election Exploration n Does a candidate have enough political and financial support? n Sets up an exploratory committee to find out n Allows for growth of candidacy with media coverage, national attention

25. Presidential Election Announcement n Candidate decides to run for office n Sets up press conference to announce candidacy for president n Formal declaration as a national spectacle to propose agenda

26. Presidential Election Campaign Strategies n Staff –Political consultant –Finance chairperson –Communications Director –Press Secretary n Visibility and Appeal n Pollster and Tracking Polls n Focus Groups n Get Out the Vote (GOTV)

27. Presidential Election Primaries and Caucuses n Primaries –Voters from primary states vote for the party nominee –State delegates throw support toward primary vote winner –Most commonly used method –Front-loading –Howard Dean Scream (2004)Howard Dean Scream (2004) n Caucuses –Historically, state and party leaders met and chose nominee –Very few states use caucuses –Iowa’s caucus is the first major electoral event usually determining the presidential candidate for each party

28. Presidential Election Nominating Conventions n Political parties hold national nominating convention attended by state delegates n Choose presidential nominee, vice- presidential nominee, party platform, unify party n Democratic Party and Republican Party do not use the same system of choosing a nominee…

29. Republican National Convention n Nominee is chosen when a candidate receives a majority of the total delegates n Unofficially determined by results of presidential primaries n In 2012, the Republican nominee required 1,144 out of 2,286

30. Democratic National Convention n Nominee is chosen when a candidate receives a majority of the total delegates n State primary results determine candidate pledges n “Superdelegates,” not obligated by state results and chosen based on political status, can determine party nominee n In 2012, the Democratic nominee required 2,777 out of 5,556

31. Presidential/Congressional Election Campaigning n Position Issues –Issue which divides voters and candidates have opposing views –Examples: F Abortion: pro-choice or pro-life F Marriage: man/woman or heterosexual/homosexual n Valence Issues –Universally shared views and voters determine which candidate is more likely to address/solve –Campaigns have recently concentrated more on valence issues –Examples: F Low unemployment F Low crime

32. Presidential/Congressional Election Campaigning n Television –Paid advertisement - spots –News broadcasts - visuals n Debates –Televised or town hall –Gain exposure, usually for lesser-knowns –Could lead to showcase flaws F Rick Perry Gaffe Rick Perry Gaffe n Direct Mail/Internet –Lists used to direct specific issue-based ads to specific demographics –Useful to earn campaign funds Nixon - Kennedy Debate 1960

33. 1988 Presidential Campaign n Vice President George Bush (R) vs. Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis (D) n Read My Lips Read My Lips n Tank Ad Tank Ad n Willie Horton Ad Willie Horton Ad

34. Campaign Finance Congressional and Presidential n “Money is the mother’s milk of politics.” - Jesse Unruh (D) n Sources of Campaign Money n Campaign Finance Rules n Campaign Finance Reform n Effect of Campaign Finance

35. Sources of Campaign Money n Private individuals are primary sources –Federal government matches individual contributions to presidential candidates F Congressional candidates receive no federal funds n Political Action Committees (PACS) secondary source n Hard money –Financial contribution directly given to candidate n Soft money –Financial contribution given to political party as a whole

36. Campaign Finance Reform n Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971 (FECA) and 1974 Amendments –Required disclosure of donors –Limits on individual contributions –Established Federal Election Commission (FEC) n Buckley v. Valeo (1976) –Constitutional: F Limits on individual contributions F Disclosure of contributions –Unconstitutional: F Limits on campaign expenditures

37. Campaign Finance Reform n Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (BCRA)/ McCain- Feingold Act –Banned soft money to national parties –Restricted PAC campaign ads n 527 organization –Non-profit, tax-exempt political committee may not campaign directly for candidate or political party –May address issue or character of a candidate –Publicly disclose finances and donors –Ex. Swift Boat Veterans, MoveOn.org n Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (2010) –Overturned restriction on corporation and union contributions allowing unlimited financial support for campaign support ads –Ruled unconstitutional based on First Amendment freedom of speech

38. Campaign Finance Limits To each candidate or candidate committee per election To national party committee per calendar year To state, district & local party committee per calendar year To any other political committee per calendar year Special Limits Individual may give $2,600**$32,400**$10,000 (combined limit) $5,000$123,200* overall biennial limit:* $48,600* to all candidates* $74,600* to all PACs and parties* National Party Committee may give $5,000No limit $5,000$45,400* to Senate candidate per campaign* State, District & Local Party Committee may give $5,000 (combined limit) No limit $5,000 (combined limit) No limit PAC (multicandidate) may give $5,000$15,000$5,000 (combined limit) $5,000No limit PAC (not multicandidate) may give $2,600**$32,400**$10,000 (combined limit) $5,000No limit Authorized Campaign Committee may give $2,000No limit $5,000No limit

39. Presidential Election General Election n Electoral College –Majority of electoral votes - 270 –Winner-Take-All F Nebraska and Maine* n Campaign in Electoral-rich states –Top 11 states would give a candidate 270 electoral votes F http://www.270towin.com/2016_election_predictions.php?mapid=bD Dz http://www.270towin.com/2016_election_predictions.php?mapid=bD Dz –California (55), Texas (38), New York (29), Florida (29), Illinois (20), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), New Jersey (14) –Swing States F Florida in 2000 Election F Ohio in 2004 Election

40. 2000 Election - Gore/Bush

41. 2004 Election - Bush/Kerry

42. 2008 Election - Obama/McCain

43. Electoral Map (2012)

44. 2012 Electoral Map by District

45. Results of Elections n Maintaining Election –Majority party/power maintains power and traditional voter loyalties n Deviating Election –Minority power wins with support of new voters, but voters maintain traditional loyalties –Usually temporary due to current issues or events n Critical/Realigning Election –Minority power wins majority with new voter coalition and maintains subsequent power –Occurs due to serious or extreme conditions and events n Dealigning Election –Voters less dependent on partisan loyalties –Split-ticket voting

46. Realigning/Critical Election n 1920s dominated by Republicans in Congress and White House n Great Depression hits in 1929 n 1932 Election –Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) establishes new Democratic coalition of blacks, farmers, southerners, Catholics, Jews, unions, and urbanites –Democrats win landslide victories and majorities in White House and Congress