1. SAC/PAP March 1, 2007Analysis plans IceCube analysis plans, Outline of presentation Initial emphasis on atmospheric neutrinos Use IceCube filter requests as guide to current activity Working group structure Publications –Initial technical and performance papers –Conference papers, including ICRC –Future plans

2. SAC/PAP March 1, 2007Analysis plans Atmospheric neutrinos As background –Especially important for “diffuse” search As calibration beam –Angular and energy dependence are well known up to onset of prompt from charm –Both  and e detectable in IceCube As physics beam –10 4 to 10 5 per year (depending on low-energy cuts) –Search for hadro-production of charm –Limits on new physics Violations of Lorentz invariance Non-standard oscillations Neutriino cross sections, mini-BH production

3. SAC/PAP March 1, 2007Analysis plans Naïve expectation for atmospheric  Assumptions: –Muon neutrinos: Full efficiency for  range > 0.5 km (En > 150 GeV) –Electron neutrinos: Efficiency for e from PDD is 0 for E < TeV Note advantage of lowering E th for e Spectrum of e events per km 3 yr (perfect eff)

4. Upgoing muon events 20052006

5. 9-string atmospheric First IceCube thesis, John Pretz, U Md Paper in preparation –137 days live time –234 atmospheric  events after (severe) cuts –Compared to 225 +81 / -78 expected 211 expected atmospheric  ; 14 background –Timing only, no use of wave-forms –No energy unfolding

6. Plots of atmospheric  from draft atmospheric neutrino paper

7. IC-9 atmospheric analysis Azimuth Zenith (180 = vertically up-going) Structure in azimuth reflects asymmetry of 9-string detector Disagreement at horizon reflects inadequately simulated background (e.g. two unrelated muons in window) Note low efficiency for horizontal because of severe cuts on bg

8. Simulatons in preparation for diffuse analysis of IC9 data Optimize cuts for E -2 spectrum extending above steep atmospheric background

9. Simulations in preparation for diffuse analysis of IC9 data

10. IceTop/in-ice coincident events For cosmic-ray physics, calibration & background tagging for IceCube

11. SAC/PAP March 1, 2007Analysis plans Filter proposals submitted to Trigger Filter Transmission (TFT) Board –The Muon channel request. Proposal on docushare Contact: Kara Hoffman –Cascade filter Proposal on docushare Contact: Pat Toale –Tau filter Proposal on docushare Contact: Seon-Hee Seo –Contained low energy cascade/muon filter Proposal on docushare Contact: Steve Movit –Cosmic Ray physics filter / IceTop Proposal on docushare Contact: Tom Gaisser –WIMP filter Proposal on docushare Contact: Gustav Wikstrom –Online Verification proposal Proposal on docushare Contact: Carsten Rott <carott@phys.psu.edu –Online DST propsal Proposal on docushare Contact: Paolo Desiati, Juan Carlos Diaz-Velez, David Boersma –Exotics proposals 2007_Online_Filters Exotics group filter proposals wiki page.2007_Online_Filters Proposal from docushare Contact: Brian Christy –EHE Filter proposal Proposal on docushare Contact : Dusan Turcan –Moon shadow search proposal Contact: David Boersma Proposal on docushare Additional background information at: Juande's reconstruction comparison pageJuande's reconstruction comparison page –GRB Raw data proposal Proposal on docushare Contact: Ignacio Taboada Proposal to use GCN alerts to capture all data around GRB

12. SAC/PAP March 1, 2007Analysis plans Upward muon filter for atmospheric  Need fast reconstruction algorithm for purpose of filtering

13. SAC/PAP March 1, 2007Analysis plans “Cascade” filter

14. SAC/PAP March 1, 2007Analysis plans Low energy cascade filter Uses “contained” events to select low energy Extends cascade sensitivity down to 100 GeV for atmospheric e AMANDA string spacing ~30 m

15. SAC/PAP March 1, 2007Analysis plans Expected rate of “contained” e By lowering threshold with sufficient efficiency, we could get 10s of e / yr

16. SAC/PAP March 1, 2007Analysis plans Moon filter No neutrino standard candle to verify absolute pointing and resolution Use shadow of the moon in downward cosmic-ray induced muons Expect per cent level depression Use 15 <  < 29 degrees in 2007 (  max gets smaller in later years)

17. SAC/PAP March 1, 2007Analysis plans Angular resolution for point sources of  (22 string) Note: at 3 TeV r.m.s. deflection of  wrt is ~ 1 o

18. SAC/PAP March 1, 2007Analysis plans Angular resolution improves as detector grows

19. SAC/PAP March 1, 2007Analysis plans Shape of reconstruction Fit with 2 Gaussians: 22 strings Note peak of well-reconstructed events on broader distribution

20. SAC/PAP March 1, 2007Analysis plans Working group structure As envisioned in PDD –Atmospheric , IceTop –Atmospheric, WIMPs,  oscillations – Astrophysical  (diffuse & point sources, both steady and bursts); relativistic monopoles – e, , NC, all sources –Supernova, variations of muon fluxes Working group structure developed significantly after actual work began:

21. Physics topic groups Tau CascadeMuon Cosmic rays Exotics GRBs Diffuse WIMPsEHE Point sources Atmospheric Analysis Coordinator Channel coordinators

22. Physics topic groups Tau CascadeMuon Cosmic rays Exotics GRBs Diffuse WIMPsEHE Point sources Atmospheric Analysis Coordinator Channel coordinators

23. Physics topic groups Tau CascadeMuon Cosmic rays Exotics GRBs Diffuse WIMPsEHE Point sources Atmospheric Analysis Coordinator Channel coordinators

24. Physics topic groups Tau CascadeMuon Cosmic rays Exotics GRBs Diffuse WIMPsEHE Point sources Atmospheric Analysis Coordinator Channel coordinators  Physics

25.  Cosmic rays  Atmospheric neutrinos  Point source neutrinos  Gamma-ray bursts  WIMPs  Diffuse neutrinos  EHE neutrinos/muons  Exotic particles  Supernovae  Searches for non-predicted physics  Muon Kara Hoffman, U Maryland  Cascade Spencer Klein, LBNL  Hydrid and Tau channel Doug Cowen, PSU Doug Cowen, PSU Physics topic groups Detection channel coordinators: Tom Gaisser, U. Delaware Albrecht Karle, UW Madison Elisa Bernardini, DESY-Zeuthen Paolo Desiati, UW Madison Per Olof Hulth, Stockholm Ignacio Taboada, UC Berkeley Gary Hill, UW Madison Spencer Klein, LBNL David Hardtke, UC Berkeley Lutz Koepke, Mainz Shigeru Yoshida, Chiba Analysis coordinator: Gary Hill, UW Madison

26. IceCube analysis matrix – plans February 2007

27. SAC/PAP March 1, 2007Analysis plans Publications IceCube first year performance paper Atmospheric neutrinos in IceCube –9 string analysis –Plan for 22-string analysis and later IceCube technical papers Conference papers – ICRC as snapshot AMANDA papers

28. SAC/PAP March 1, 2007Analysis plans IceCube (inc. AMANDA) at ICRC2007 Talks/posters by category –3 overview: IceCube, IceTop, AMANDA in I3 –4 atmospheric neutrino –4 diffuse (hard spectrum) neutrino search –1 search for neutrinos from GRB –10 point source search –6 cascade analyses, calibration with flashers –3 monopole search –8 cosmic ray –1 Radio detectors in IceCube

29. SAC/PAP March 1, 2007Analysis plans Proposed I3 papers for 2007 Finish publications on AMANDA: several papers Start IceCube-9 –Atmospheric  with I3-9 is ready for Collaboration review –Others listed on publication committee wiki: Point source search with I3-9 Search for EHE n with I3-9 Limits on monopoles with I3-9 Or wait for IC-22 with more uniform acceptance?

30. SAC/PAP March 1, 2007Analysis plans Extra slides: Point source search exercise – can we find a pre-selected point source if signal exists at 5 sigma ?

31. SAC/PAP March 1, 2007Analysis plans Random atmospheric background First illustration of a “data challenge” style test Point source search with maximum likelihood method, IC-9 Background skymap - 288 Atmospheric Neutrino Events, simulated

32. SAC/PAP March 1, 2007Analysis plans Add 9 source events Add E -2 source events according to Poisson distribution of mean =8.6. In this case, 9 source events added to the data set (RA=0, Dec=40), analyzed same as background :

33. SAC/PAP March 1, 2007Analysis plans Events found with expected significance Add E -2 source events according to Poisson distribution of mean =8.6. In this case, 9 source events added to the data set (RA=0, Dec=40), analyzed same as background: Perform Max. Like. analysis looking for source at this location. Find: –Estimated number of source events: n est = 8.1 –Chance probability: 3  10 -7 (median expected for =8.6 is 5  10 -7 )