1. Lecture 23: The Rise of China 1. Historical Background 2. Power Transition Theory 3. Recent Chinese Growth 4. American-Chinese Relations: Sources of Conflict 5. Regional Stability in Asia 6. Will China Become a Democracy? 7. Student Questions

2. Historical Background 1911 1949 1950 1966 1972 2001 1978 End of the Ch’ing Dynasty (1644-1911) Mao’s Communist Victory Intervention in the Korean War (November) Instability, Revolts, Invasions, and Civil War 1976 Cultural Revolution Decay of Chinese-Soviet Relations Death of Mao Nixon Plays the “China Card” 1969 Soviet-Chinese Border Clashes “Market Reforms” Begin Slowly

3. A Success Story Average Annual Time Period % Growth 1960-1978 (pre-reform)5.3 1979-1999 (post-reform)9.7 19919.3 199214.2 199313.5 199412.7 199510.5 19969.7 19978.8 19987.8 19997.1 2000 (Jan-June)8.2 Source: Morrison 2000

4. Power Transition Theory GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT POWER TRANSITION POINT TIME THE CROSS OVER POINT TIME The Within Country Power Transition The Between Country Power Transition GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT RISING CHALLENGER DECLINING HEGEMON

5. Two Key Questions Will China Surpass the U.S.? Is China Dissatisfied?

6. Measuring Size and Growth Rate Problem #1: How Big Is The Chinese Economy? Problem #2: How Fast Will It Grow? NominalGDPNominalPPP Country GDP $BPPP $BGDP GDP ------------------------per capita per capita U.S.9,2349,23433,83533,835 Japan4,3702,93534,51923,465 Germany2,1111,74825,69421,841 China9975,2017904,228

8. Transitions and Conflict Will China Surpass the U.S.? Is China Dissatisfied? Yes, But China Starts Out Significantly Behind the U.S. Yes, But a Moderately Long Lead Time Exists Yes: Rejects World Run by Capitalists & Democrats Yes: Demands Prestige (or its “Place in the Sun”) Yes: Supports Revolutionary Forces Abroad No: Not Territorially Expansionist No: Increasingly Integrated in International System No: Needs Investment, Trade, and Technology

9. Source: U.S. Embassy in China, Trade & Investment Briefing

12. Hong Kong Japan USA Taiwan Other Singapore

14. Sources of U.S.-China Conflict: Trade Human Rights Taiwan

15. Sources of U.S.-China Conflict: Trade Growing U.S. Trade Deficit With China 1999: U.S. Exports to China: $13.12 1999: U.S. Imports From China: $87.78 Will Chinese Membership in the WTO Lessen Conflict? a) Regime Will Encourage China to Cooperate b) WTO is Impartial Monitor c) Concessions are to a Third Party d) Keeps Conflict from Spreading

16. Sources of U.S.-China Conflict: Human Rights Tiananmen Square (June 1989) & Response Chinese Perspective: Question of Sovereignty American Perspective: Moral Obligation -- Idealism -- President Carter: Shift in U.S. Policy -- New International Norm: Protecting Human Rights

17. Sources of U.S.-China Conflict: Taiwan Legacy of Civil War & 1949 Communist Victory Korean War Links U.S. to Defense of Taiwan Series of “Taiwan Straits Crises” During the Cold War U.S. Establishes Bi-Lateral Relations with PRC in 1979 Recent Democratization of Taiwan Military and Economic Costs of a Chinese Invasion Can the U.S. Deter China in Any Way?

20. Regional Stability: China’s Relations with its Neighbors Long History of Conflict 1980’s: Chinese Cuts in Defense Spending 1990’s: Defense Build Up Begins a) Reorder Defense Focus b) Impact of the Persian Gulf War c) Typical Patter for a Developing Country d) Buy Off the Military Response to Buildup: Private Alarm & Public Appeasement China’s Biggest Fear: A Re-Armed Japan

21. A Comment on the Build-Up In Percentage Terms, the Build-Up is Alarming But Percentages can be Misleading U.S. China GDP (U.S.$t) Defense Spending (U.S.$b) Defense as a % of GDP 8.5 4.4 267 36 3% 1% 1998 Estimates from CIA Fact Book; CIA states that official Chinese Defense Spending is $12b; IISS estimates it at $36b

22. Will China Become A Democracy? Tiananmen Square 1989 General Hypothesis: Economic Development ---(+)---> Political Development Optimists: -- Seeds of Democracy Have Been Planted Pessimists: a) Low GNP per Capita b) Exchange Economic Rewards for Political Silence c) Peasants are Conservative Majority

23. Conclusions Tremendous Social & Economic Change in China Important Implications for the Distribution of Power Navigating Will Be Difficult But Not Impossible