1. http://www.sealevelrise.info/ Steve George

3. Likelihood of flooding What has been done previously? Find your nearest decent tide- gauge (what’s happened previously) Fit a distribution to the extremes & extrapolate Calculate risk you are willing to take. e.g. Melbourne Water requires that any new development is protected in the 1 in 100 year flood event.

4. What of the future? Sea-level is rising, so can no longer just look to the past for what will happen in the future. One options is to choose an arbitrarily large height (above which you are allowed to build) This can be expensive, and prevents a planner from performing a comprehensive risk analysis. Alternatively, provide a localised calculation of flood likelihood. Uncertainty in past Uncertainty in future

7. Canute Output

8. Canute Additional Features Number of events How many times will it flood? Storm-surge climatologies With and without tropical cyclones (Port Hedland) Shoreline recession Modelling by Water research Laboratory Wave setup/runup Effects of waves on flood likelihood

9. Canute Additional Features Number of events How many times will it flood? Storm-surge climatologies With and without tropical cyclones (Port Hedland) Shoreline recession Modelling by Water research Laboratory Wave setup/runup Effects of waves on flood likelihood

10. Canute Additional Features Number of events How many times will it flood? Storm-surge climatologies With and without tropical cyclones (Port Hedland) Shoreline recession Modelling by Water research Laboratory Wave setup/runup Effects of waves on flood likelihood Regionally specific beach types modelled under localised storm-surge conditions

11. Canute Additional Features Number of events How many times will it flood? Storm-surge climatologies With and without tropical cyclones (Port Hedland) Shoreline recession Modelling by Water research Laboratory Wave setup/runup Effects of waves on flood likelihood Not just still-water effects

12. http://www.sealevelrise.info/