1. Agricultural Outlook Project: 2011-2014 Overview of the Work and the Proposal for Extension of Work in 2014-2016 Rajesh Chadha NCAER Project Supported by National Food Security Mission, Ministry of Agriculture November 7, 2014

2. The context The need for monitoring and analysing the emerging food scenario for India because of the significant dependence of output on the monsoon rains India being a major importer of food commodities we need to analyse the management of agriculture from a public policy perspective The National Food Security Mission (NFSM), Ministry of Agriculture, commissioned a 3-year study to National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) in 2011-12 The study aimed at providing analytical inputs for understanding the emerging agricultural scenarios both in the short-term and in the medium-term FAO also supported the project with grants for the pilot and first round of PDA survey undertaken during 2012-13

3. Implementation The NCAER set up a dedicated team to carry out the study An advisory committee comprising of Dr Shekhar Shah, DG (NCAER) as Chair, Dr Ashok Gulati, Prof Ramesh Chand, Prof Mahendra Dev, Principal Adviser (DAC) and Joint Secretary (Crops) was constituted. Representatives of FAO and DFID were special invitees to the committee meetings A Technical Support Group comprising of key officers from different departments of the Government and experts was also formed to interact with the study team and provide guidance

4. Activities Accomplished Quarterly Agricultural Outlook Reports to integrate the assessment of the key indicators relating to agriculture with a focus on food sector including cereals, pulses, fruits & vegetables, oilseeds, sugarcane and milk – Eight Reports Semi-Annual Agricultural Outlook and Scenario Analysis Reports to provide a medium-term perspective based on the available information and using suitable economic models that permit longer term projections – Three Reports

5. Activities Accomplished (continued) Monthly briefings on the issues of relevance to the Outlook Assessment and prevailing agricultural conditions – 28 Meetings Seven Papers on specific topics submitted Two PDA-based surveys conducted Four workshops held Two briefing meetings and one PDA-based survey presentation to be held in November 2014

6. International Impact OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023 Theme Chapter on “Feeding India: prospects and challenges in the next decade” Department of Agriculture Cooperation, Ministry of Agriculture sponsored work accomplished by NCAER mentioned and appreciated in the Foreword, the Acknowledgements and in the Core Chapter

7. The Way Forward NCAER would like to continue the work done so far both from the short-term and medium-term perspectives Three reports are proposed to be prepared in a year for the next two years, 2014-2016 Rabi Outlook Report – December Medium-Term Outlook – April Kharif Outlook Report - August

8. The Way Forward Briefing meetings to be held thrice a year – after submission of each of the three Reports Two workshops would be organized – one in each of the two years Work on modelling including FAO-COSIMO model and NCAER-ISEC econometric models to be funded by FAO Outputs from these technical tools would feed into the analysis to be reported in the three reports

9. Budget We would present a revised detailed proposal as per discussion held today along with the budgetary requirements

10. Thank You