1. Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi Alexander Sokolov Foresight Centre Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge Higher School of Economics Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making 16th-17th October 2008

2. Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi CONTENTS General background Methodology and implementation scheme Some results Further steps

3. Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi General background Foresight for industriesMacroeconomic forecast S&T ForesightScenarios Delphi Concept of Socio-economic Development: 2020 Strategy of Innovation Development: 2015 Strategies for particular industries

4. Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi Major stages of Delphi Preliminary desk research Socio-economic objectives Selection of experts Identification of thematic areas Delphi topics Survey methodologies Expert panels Data analysis Discussion and dissemination of results

5. Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi Preliminary desk research Benchmarking Russia vis-à-vis leading countries Bibliometric analysis – the most cited experts, fast growing R&D areas (research fronts) - QUANTUM DOT BIOCONJUGATES; QUANTUM DOTS; INVIVO IMAGING; LIVE CELLS; DIAGNOSTICS - HIGHLY ORIENTED ZNO NANOROD/NANOTUBE ARRAYS; ULTRATHIN ZNO NANOTUBES; THIN ZNO FILM Patents – Russia’s positions by technology area Statistics – resources and R&D capacities (personnel, research units, R&D funding, output indicators)

6. Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi Socio-economic objectives Human potential and increasing quality of labour resources Economic development Institutional development Environment and safety issues

7. Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi Experts Expert panels Experts- Integrators 20 300 Over 2000 Research centres Business Universities Government Delphi survey

8. Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi Thematic Areas (5-8 technology areas and 80-100 topics each) 1. Information and Telecommunication Systems 2. Industry of Nanosystems and Materials 3. Living Systems 4. Medicine and Health 5. Rational Use of Natural Resources 6. Transportation, Aviation and Space Systems 7. Power Engineering and Energy Saving 8. Manufacturing Systems 9. Safety 10. Technologies for Society

9. Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi Questionnaire and issues covered by the survey Importance for Russia Time of realisation Level of Russian R&D Leading country Needed policy measures Expected results R&D vs commercial use

10. Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi Regions covered by the survey Number of respondents

11. Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi [Header] Polymers with increased mechanical strength and chemical resistance Crystals and nanostructured metals with increased construction and functional propertiesfor transport applications Methods of creation of components for nanoelectronics Nanostructured materials and coatings for implants Nanomaterials for urgent stopping of hemorrhages in emergemcies Materials for alternative sources of energy (solar batteries; portable fuel cells; hydrogen accumulators; electrochemical and thermoelectrical cells; supercondensators et al) Integration into global value chains Increasing domestic competitiveness Resolving social problems Strengthening position on global markets 201420152016201720182019202020212022 40%41% 31%21% 34%32% Time of R&D realisation and commercial application - Leading country 40% - Level of R&D in Russia compared to the world leaders Expected results R&D realisation Commercial application

12. Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi Nanotechnology and materials: expected results 1. Nanotechnology and nanomaterials 6. Biocompatible materials 5. Membranes and catalysts 3. Nano- and microsystems equipment 4. Composites and ceramics 2. Polymers and crystals Social development Domestic markets Global value added chainsPositions on world markets

13. Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi Time of realisation: Living Systems Biosystems, bioanalytical devices Biomedicine and veterinary Cell technologies Genome and postgenome technologies for medicine Biosynthesis, biocatalysis, metabolic engineering Bioengineering Bioinformation technologies

14. Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi Level of R&D vs Importance: Living Systems Importance for Russia Level of R&D in Russia compared to the world leaders Realisation time

15. Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi Further steps Finalisation and integration of results Wide dissemination and discussion Building S&T priorities (Revision of National Critical Technologies: 2009) Identification of the areas for the National Innovation Projects Fine-tuning the National S&T Programme Identification of S&T priority areas for particular industries