1. Political State of the Region Report 2014: Baltic Sea Neighbourhoods – A Mega-Region in Progress? Presentation of the BDF/Deepwater Report at BDF Summit/EUSBSR Annual Forum, Turku, 4 June 2014

2. The Baltic Sea and its Neighbourhoods Three dimensions of Neighbourhood:  Challenging Neighbourhoods: Russia, Eastern Partnership countries, the Arctic  Connecting Neighbourhoods: BSR as a networking and linking region, BSR as a link between Europe’s North and South and between EU and non-EU- regions/countries  Internal Neighbourhoods: Norden, areas of cooperation and internal developments within the BSR 22.10.2015DeepWater Political State of the Region Report 2014 2

3. Main Questions What are the main external challenges and in which ways do they affect the region and its member states? Conversely, what might be the opportunities and how could these be seized in order to advance the BSR project as a “Mega-Region in Progress”? How can the BSR bridge the widening gap between Europe and Russia? 22.10.2015DeepWater Political State of the Region Report 2014 3

4. Main Messages I: It’s the economy, stupid! Replication of successful pattern of BSR’s dealing with the economic crisis elsewhere in Europe? Dou1btful but there are lessons from the BSR: 1. A viable road to recovery has to pass through a careful consideration of the structural causes of the crisis, rather than through piecemeal measures. 2. A regional commonality of intentions and purposes is a precondition for reaping the benefits of European integration.  BSR economically still the “Top of Europe” 22.10.2015DeepWater Political State of the Region Report 2014 4

5. Main Messages II BSR still a model for regional and cross-border cooperation. BSR as a regional hub in Northern Europe linking the various regions. Stronger links between regions and regional policies required. 22.10.2015DeepWater Political State of the Region Report 2014 5

6. Main Messages III More coherence needed in all areas of cooperation. Coherence # “messy approach”: sometimes the latter can be more useful. Politics are not the only means of BSR cooperation  relationships between non- state actors equally important e.g. in education and research cooperation. 22.10.2015DeepWater Political State of the Region Report 2014 6

7. Future BSR cooperation with Russia - Scenarios a) Nothing will change and the mainly functional regional cooperation with Russia continue. b) If the current situation continues, Baltic Sea cooperation, at least those parts that include Russia, will become obsolete. 22.10.2015DeepWater Political State of the Region Report 2014 7

8. Future BSR cooperation with Russia - Scenarios c) The regional functional cooperation with Russia will continue but will become more cumbersome and will be reduced to a rather small number of “soft” issues. 22.10.2015DeepWater Political State of the Region Report 2014 8

9. Future BSR cooperation with Russia - Scenarios d) The crisis as a chance - renewed Baltic Sea cooperation: political dialogue with Russia remains important; pragmatic approach towards Russia needed; attempt to bridge the cleavages; inclusive approach. 22.10.2015Prof. Dr. Bernd Henningsen 9

10. Outlook and Conclusions BSR has shown that common problems can be solved in pragmatic ways when there is a will to cooperate and to overcome historical cleavages, without forgetting the past. Hope that the BSR’s soft power potential and economic capabilities spills-over to its neighbourhoods. 22.10.2015DeepWater Political State of the Region Report 2014 10

11. Outlook and Conclusions The current dynamics in the neighbourhoods of the BSR call for more research into the political, economic and socio-cultural implications emerging in the region. 22.10.2015DeepWater Political State of the Region Report 2014 11