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7 th & 8 th Rouble Forum Follow-Up Main findings ICAP, 12 April 2011 Darryl Hooker, IRSF Chairman, ICAP
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Predicted timetable for RTGS 2011 2012 2013 Other % 2012 2013 Other % 7 th Forum - 2012 is believed to be the most likely timetable for RTGS for Rouble 8 th Forum - 2013 is believed to be the most likely timetable for RTGS for Rouble
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Reassured by progress BESP is making towards RTGS? % Yes Somewhat No Yes Somewhat No 7 th Forum - Most are fairly confident in the progress BESP is making towards real-time gross settlement 8 th Forum - The majority of respondents are less confident in the progress BESP is making towards real-time gross settlement
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Will all Rouble trades ultimately be settled by BESP? There is uncertainty whether all Rouble trades will be settled via BESP Barriers to this include: –Lack of mandatory participation –Existence of parallel payment systems –Lack of ‘critical mass’ in BESP approach –Technology/infrastructure costs –BESP tariffs Yes No % Not sure Yes No % Not sure 7 th Forum 8 th Forum
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What should BESP do to encourage full uptake of their service? “An industry standard is required for the settlement of RUB FX deals which dictates the use of BESP.” “CBR should enforce it if they want to be taken seriously as an international financial centre.” “Give economic stimulus and improve technology reliability.” “Reduce costs. CBR to make uptake mandatory.” “Lower the pricing for the usage of BESP. Increase pricing for other systems.” “CBR to make clear statement on mandatory uptake / retirement of legacy system. “Mandatory market initiative, current model is a barrier to entry.” “Constructive dialogue and effort CBR with local banks.” “Encouragement and enforcement from the CBR. Reduction in transaction cost.” “Eliminate other settlement systems. Minimise time-zones in Russia.” 7 th Forum8 th Forum
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SWIFT initiative Yes No % Not sure Are SWIFT and the Central Bank of Russia aligned in terms of their approach and agreement on the timetable for the SWIFT initiative? Yes No % Not sure 7 th Forum8 th Forum
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Continuous Linked Settlement Yes No % Not sure The Central Bank of Russia has announced that it has given approval for the Rouble to become a CLS currency. Do you feel confident that the CBR will progress with CLS? Yes No % Not sure 7 th Forum 8 th Forum
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When do you anticipate that the Rouble will become CLS-settled? 7 th Forum - 2014 is believed to be the most likely timetable for the Rouble to become CLS-settled % 8 th Forum – 2015 is believed to be the most likely timetable for he Rouble to become CLS-settled % 2013 2014 2015 Other* *2020 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 Other
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Rouble development 7 th Forum - % Agreeing with each statement8 th Forum - % Agreeing with each statement BESP will become the main settlement system for Rouble Banks will offer Prime broking services for Rouble Moscow will be a major financial centre Rouble will become a recognised G8 currency Rouble will become a reserve currency BESP will become the main settlement system for Rouble Moscow will be a major financial centre Rouble will become a recognised G8 currency Rouble will become a reserve currency
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ICAP plc 2 Broadgate, London EC2M 7UR +44 (0) 20 7000 5000 www.icap.com
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