1. Migration in Kazakhstan: Trends and Linkages to Migrant Characteristics Dauren Chagirov Research analyst, RAKURS Center for Economic Analysis dchagirov@cear.kz

2. Objectives 1. To provide an analysis of migration processes in Kazakhstan in 1999-2008 2. Attempt to answer the questions:  What is true pattern of migration in Kazakhstan?  Is the incidence of migration decreasing or increasing?  Is the data consistent with economic situation and political framework presented?

3. The migration data in Kazakhstan comes from two sources: 1. Data on foreign labor force attracted (registration is based on tickets of arrival and leaving in registration committees of Ministry of Justice of Republic of Kazakhstan) 2. Data based on quota of foreign labor force attracted from Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of Republic of Kazakhstan

4. Findings  The data fit the economic events that dominated the country: with economic crisis emigration increased, whereas immigration decreased  People with higher education are most of migrants.  Outflow of Kazakh ethnicities, mainly with higher education started to exaggerate since 2007  Outflow of Russian ethnicities stabilized in the beginning of 2000s, started to rise in 2007 and demonstrates increasing trends

5. Substantial deterioration of economy of Kazakhstan after the collapse of Soviet Union had its negative effect on demographic situation in Kazakhstan:  The negative influence was reflected in falling of birth rates and rising of death rates  Even more disastrous effect was observed with migration of people

6.  Between 1990 and 1999, on net, 11% of Kazakhstan population left country.  At the peak of economic crisis in first half of 1990s, about 3% of Kazakhstan’s population has emigrated ( Becker et al. 2005)

7. Human reproductive dynamics in Kazakhstan in 1991-2008

8. External migration in Kazakhstan in 1999-2008

9.  Emigration was falling on average 20% in 1999-2006  Immigration was rising on average 10% in 1999-2005  In 2006, emigration conversely increased by 26% relatively to 2005  In 2005, immigration conversely decreased by 10% relatively to 2004

10. The research conducted in the area of migration within former Soviet Union countries distinguished among two general characters of migration: economic and ethnic.  In 1991-1999 both economic and ethnic reasons induced the migration with ethnic factors being the dominant power (Locher 2002, Grigorichev 2008)  In 1999-2005 economic factors were the main drivers of migration (Becker 2003, 2005; An and Becker 2009)

11. Emigration from Kazakhstan, by ethnicities

12.  Emigration of Russian ethnicity increased by almost 30% in 2007 relative to 2006  Emigration of other ethnicities increased by almost 23% in 2007 relative to 2006

13. Emigration rate, by education level

14. Immigration rate, by level of education

15. Emigration rate, by age

16. The same decreasing trends were observed in 1999-2006 as with ethnicities. The emigration of those aged 16-29, 30-49 and 50-64 correspondingly increased by 21.5, 35 and 13.36% in 2007 relative to 2006. In 2008 these rates raised again, thus establishing continuous increasing trend. Emigration rate, by age

17. Immigration rate, by age

18. Emigration rate of people aged 16-29, by education level

19. Emigration rate of people aged 30-49, by education level

20. Emigration rate of people aged 50-64, by education level

21. Emigration rate of Kazakhs, by age

22. Immigration rate of Kazakhs, by age

23. External immigration in Kazakhstan of Kazakh ethnicity reveals several interesting issues:  break in stably increasing immigration trend of Kazakh ethnicities (the number of Kazakhs migrated to Kazakhstan increased by almost 4.5 times in 2005 relative to 1999: from 10909 in 1999 to 57850 in 2005)  beginning from 2005, the return of Kazakhs to their motherland reflected downturn.  in 2008 this number decreased by approximately 40% in comparison with 2005.

24. Emigration rate of Kazakhs, by level of education

25. Immigration rate of Kazakhs, by level of education

26. Emigration rate of Russians, by age

27. Immigration rate of Russians, by age

28. Emigration rate of Russians, by education level

29. Immigration rate of Russians, by education level

30. Trends & Challenges  Outflow of the most educated part of population in 2007  Repatriation of Kazakhs ethnicities back to their historical motherland reflects downturn; barrier to government in its attempt to solve the socio-demographic situation of Kazakhstan and thus signal inefficiency of program of repatriation.  Emigration of mostly young, able bodied part of population is in existence.  Emigration processes in Kazakhstan impose substantial restrictions on attempts of Kazakhstan government to build up non-oil economy.

31. Thank you