1. Alternatives to Hospital Care: Modelling the Whole System Tom Bowen Tom Bowen Associates, Brighton, UK ORAHS 2003, Prague, Czech Republic 28 July 2003

2. Content Current UK hospitalisation trends Wider modelling requirements Care homes example R & D agenda

5. Production functions do not apply Queueing models do not apply

6. Internal factors A bed is not a service point Doctors, diagnostics determine throughput Resource imbalances may increase length of stay Additional wards may scatter patients

7. External factors

9. Cost/Quality Model of Care Homes

10. Example of model calculation (2002)

11. R & D Agenda Internal process models Protocols for hospital care Therapy service models Prevention service models One to many flow models