1. WG FBA report Dr. Uroš Gabrijel (ELES) IG Meeting, Vienna, 13 February 2009

2. Presentation outline  Annex to WP1&2 - results  Reliability margins – (WP2) results  CEE/CWE workshops  To-do

3. Annex to WP1&2 - results (1)  Investigation of means to control network security level for FBA  Scope of analyses:  Local means  Broader use of generation shift keys  Amendment to preparation of scenarios  Increase maximum allowed flows on particular branches  Consideration of subsequent outages  Reduce list of critical branches  Global means  Assume some level of export/import as certain  Introduce minimum positive AMF  Neglecting small flow impacts

4. Annex to WP1&2 - results (2)  Work under scope of Annex to WP1&2 was completed and final report accepted.  WG FBA carefully examined the results and agree on the following:  Global means to control network security  Could be applied only under full (8TSO) agreement  “Minimum positive AMF” for all critical branches is acceptable for long term allocations  Level to be applied is still to be discussed/investigated  Clear definitions to be adopted  Negative AMF in D auctions still under discussion

5. 5 Annex to WP1&2 - results (3) Annex to WP1&2 - results (3)  Local means to control network security  Could be individually applied  Redefined “Generation/load shift key” proved to be most efficient since it enables higher accuracy  Transparent usage required

6. 6 Reliability margins (1)  Results of Base Flow Reliability Margins (BFRMs) analysis  Bandwidth of flows caused by external exchanges differs from TSO to TSO  Feasibility of statistical approach was proven  Uncertainties for daily auctions are significantly smaller than for yearly/monthly auctions  Results of Flow Reliability Margins (FRMs) analysis  Representation of modeling uncertainties could be expressed as a fraction of Total Max Flow

7. 7 Reliability margins (2)  According to HLM resolution 24/4, WG prepared a proposal for common approach to Reliability Margins determination.  Major characteristic of the common approach to BFRM is simultaneous use of results obtained upon agreed statistical methods and transparent application of individual decisions. Values to be implemented and tested will be provided by each TSO  WG FBA proposes to apply FRM=10 % TMF (covering 80 % of flow deviations) - subject of revision based on additional information from operational experiences

8. 8 CEE/CWE workshops  CEE (WG FBA) / CWE (R4CA, FBI) workshops  Two workshops were held on 30.9.2008 and 1.12.2008  Topics  Information exchange (experiences, proposals…)  Data sets (models) exchange - definitions  Inter-regional data exchange plan

9. 9 To-do (1)  Further investigations:  Methodological verifications of specific cases based on amended existing datasets from WP1/Annex  Analysis on statistically representative new test samples – use of CAO IT tool – internal dry-run  The Concept update  Provide consultancy to CAO  Inputs to Technical requirements specification  Determination of operational processes and interface requirements among TSOs and CAO

10. 10 To-do (2)  Stipulate TSOs to adapt internal process for FBA prerequisites (2DACF…) as a basis for providing data for further testing of technical parameter refinements and CAO processes  Intermediate solution for intra-day market

11. Thank you for your attention!