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Weather Briefing for The 2013 Presidential Inauguration NOAA / National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office January 21, 2013 2100.

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Presentation on theme: "Weather Briefing for The 2013 Presidential Inauguration NOAA / National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office January 21, 2013 2100."— Presentation transcript:

1 Weather Briefing for The 2013 Presidential Inauguration NOAA / National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office January 21, 2013 2100 UTC / 5:00 PM EST Steven Zubrick Science and Operations Officer

2 Outline Weather HazardsWeather Hazards Current Observations/RadarCurrent Observations/Radar Forecast OverviewForecast Overview Forecast Tables and GraphsForecast Tables and Graphs Reagan and Dulles METAR & TAFReagan and Dulles METAR & TAF Illumination DataIllumination Data Space WeatherSpace Weather Dispersion ModelingDispersion Modeling Summary of Weather HazardsSummary of Weather Hazards Briefing ScheduleBriefing Schedule 1/21/2013 5 PM EST2NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

3 Weather Hazards 2100 UTC 21 Jan – 1200 UTC 22 Jan 2013 for Washington, D.C. 20% chance of a snow shower (between 6:00 PM and 9:00 PM) Diminishing chances for any snow for DC this evening; outside chance of a dustingDiminishing chances for any snow for DC this evening; outside chance of a dusting Frontal passage between 6 and 7 P.M.Frontal passage between 6 and 7 P.M. Temperatures to remain above freezingTemperatures to remain above freezing Falling to below freezing late this evening after 10 P.M.Falling to below freezing late this evening after 10 P.M. Gusty Winds, much colder overnight Gusty Winds, much colder overnight (30 mph tonight, 35 mph Tuesday) Small Craft Advisory for the Potomac.Small Craft Advisory for the Potomac. Wind chills will drop below 20 after midnight, and will fall to the upper single digits by dawn Tuesday.Wind chills will drop below 20 after midnight, and will fall to the upper single digits by dawn Tuesday. 3NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office 1/21/2013 5 PM EST

4 NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office 4 Regional Visible Satellite 2115 UTC 21 Jan 2013

5 1/21/2013 5 PM ESTNWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office 5 Regional Radar/Surface Mosaic 2100 UTC 21 Jan 2013

6 Forecast Overview for Washington, D.C. 6NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office Normals: High: 43F Low: 28F 1/21/2013 5 PM EST

7 Hourly Weather Graph: DC 1/21/2013 5 PM ESTNWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office 7

8 Weather Element Forecast for Washington, D.C. 8NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office 1/21/2013 5 PM EST

9 KDCA METAR & TAF Ronald Reagan National Airport METAR METAR KDCA 212052Z 18007KT 10SM FEW110 08/M03 A2983 RMK AO2 SLP100 T00781028 56046 TAF KDCA 212042Z 2121/2218 19008KT P6SM FEW100 SCT150 FM212300 27015KT P6SM BKN060 FM220300 30019G27KT P6SM SCT200 9NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office 1/21/2013 2 PM EST

10 KIAD METAR & TAF Dulles International Airport METAR METAR KIAD 212052Z 21008KT 10SM FEW085 08/M06 A2980 RMK AO2 SLP092 T00831061 56045 TAF KIAD 212042Z 2121/2224 15006KT P6SM SCT080 FM212300 28015KT P6SM BKN050 FM220200 30018G27KT P6SM SCT100 FM222300 30011KT P6SM FEW250 10NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office 1/21/2013 2 PM EST

11 DateSRSSMRMSLunar Illumination (%) 21-Jan-131222Z/0722L2217Z/1717L1756Z/1256L22/0841Z-22/0341L77% 22-Jan-131222Z/0722L2218Z/1718L1840Z/1340L23/0930Z-23/0430L84% 23-Jan-131221Z/0721L2219Z/1719L1929Z/1429L24/1016Z-24/0516L91% 24-Jan-131220Z/0720L2221Z/1721L2021Z/1521L25/1058Z-25/0558L95% 25-Jan-131220Z/0720L2222Z/1722L2117Z/1617L26/1136Z-26/0636L98% Illumination Data Washington, D.C. 11NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office 1/21/2013 5 PM EST

12 Space Weather Summary/Forecast Space Weather Activity SummaryForecast Past 48 Hours Current Next 24 Hours Solar Flare Radio Blackouts (R Scale) None R1 – Slight Chance Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale) None Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale) None Joint NOAA/USAF Space Weather Briefing Jan. 21, 2013 - 2200 UTC Summary/Forecast Details: Region 1654 continues to decay and will begin to rotate off the disk on 21 January. Region 1660 has grown and will be the new area of interest. Currently quiet across S and G scales Overall threat of significant space weather activity is low 12 1638 1640 1642 Geomagnetic Storms 1644 1641 Solar Flare Radio Blackouts

13 Phenomena Reference/Impacts Joint NOAA/USAF Space Weather Briefing Jan. 21, 2013 - 2200 UTC Solar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale): No advance warning Effects lasts for 10’s of minutes to several hours Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earth First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale): Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scale Elevated levels can persist for several days Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions, affecting commercial airline operations Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale): Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms) In extreme storms, impacts to power grid operations and stability Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availability Driver of aurora; severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the lower 48 Complete NOAA Space Weather Scale information available online at: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/

14 14NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office HYSPLIT DISPERSION MODEL 18Z NAM 1/21/13 Release at 2300Z 21 Jan 2013 1/21/2013 5 PM EST

15 NOAA/NWS Baltimore/Washington http://www.erh.noaa.gov/washington 15NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office 1/21/2013 5 PM EST Always up to date

16 Summary Inauguration Day:Inauguration Day: Mostly cloudy with a diminishing threat of a snow showerMostly cloudy with a diminishing threat of a snow shower Frontal passage between 6 and 7 pmFrontal passage between 6 and 7 pm Temperatures falling into the upper 30s by early evening.Temperatures falling into the upper 30s by early evening. 20% chance of a snow shower between 6 and 9 P.M.20% chance of a snow shower between 6 and 9 P.M. Any snow accumulation would quickly melt.Any snow accumulation would quickly melt. Monday Night:Monday Night: 30% chance of a snow squall remains until 10 P.M.30% chance of a snow squall remains until 10 P.M. Then clearing and coldThen clearing and cold Gusty northwest winds to 30 mph after frontal passageGusty northwest winds to 30 mph after frontal passage Lows by dawn in the lower 20sLows by dawn in the lower 20s Wind chills by dawn in the upper single numbersWind chills by dawn in the upper single numbers 16NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office 1/21/2013 2 PM EST

17 Briefing Schedule T-7 days: Tue Jan 15 1500 ESTT-7 days: Tue Jan 15 1500 EST T-6 days: Wed Jan 16 1500 ESTT-6 days: Wed Jan 16 1500 EST T-4 days: Thu Jan 17 1500 ESTT-4 days: Thu Jan 17 1500 EST T-3 days: Fri Jan 18 1500 ESTT-3 days: Fri Jan 18 1500 EST T-2 days: Sat Jan 19 1500 ESTT-2 days: Sat Jan 19 1500 EST T-1.5 Day: Sat Jan 19 2200 ESTT-1.5 Day: Sat Jan 19 2200 EST T-1 Day: Sun Jan 20 1500 ESTT-1 Day: Sun Jan 20 1500 EST T-14 hours: Sun Jan 20 2200 ESTT-14 hours: Sun Jan 20 2200 EST T-12 hours: Mon Jan 21 0000 ESTT-12 hours: Mon Jan 21 0000 EST T-9 hours: Mon Jan 21 0300 EST (if needed)T-9 hours: Mon Jan 21 0300 EST (if needed) T-6 hours: Mon Jan 21 0600 ESTT-6 hours: Mon Jan 21 0600 EST T-3 hours: Mon Jan 21 0900 ESTT-3 hours: Mon Jan 21 0900 EST T-1 hour: Mon Jan 21 1100 EST T+2 hour: Mon Jan 21 1400 EST T+5 hour: Mon Jan 21 1700 ESTT+5 hour: Mon Jan 21 1700 EST Other times / dates as needed or requested 17NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office 1/21/2013 5 PM EST

18 Next Scheduled Briefing LAST BRIEFING Thank you for your participation! 18NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office 1/21/2013 5 PM EST

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