1. Unlikely Locations: Enclosed Malls, Small Markets, and Civic Prestige David J. Roelfs University of Louisville

2. Enclosed Mall Development: The Industry Perspective Ring Analysis: the feasibility of a proposed shopping center depends on the population size, consumer purchasing power, degree of retail competition, and site availability within the center’s prospective market/trade area On average, a sustainable mall will have 2.5 to 3.0 square feet GLA (gross leasable area) per capita Typology of shopping centers – Neighborhood centers: 0 to 99,999 sq. ft. GLA (3K – 40K population) – Community centers: 100,000 to 299,999 sq. ft. GLA (40K – 150K population) – Regional centers: 300,000 to 749,999 sq. ft. GLA (150K – 300K population) – Super regional centers: 750,000+ sq. ft. GLA (300K or more population)

3. Enclosed Mall Development: The Organizational Perspective Organizational Legitimacy: – the rate at which an organizational innovation spreads depends on the degree to which the viability of the innovation is taken for granted (constitutive or cognitive legitimacy) Organizational Density: – there is a non-linear relationship between the number of adopters of an organizational innovation and the likelihood that further adoptions will take place – the non-linearity of this relationship reflects the oppositional effects of legitimacy and competition

4. Data and Methods Statistical Method: Proportional Hazards (Cox) Regression for Repeated Events – Event: opening of a new mall or addition of an enclosed mall to an existing shopping center – Unit-of-analysis: county (proxy for the market area) – Setting: United States, including the District of Columbia, 1945-2009 Focal Independent Variables – Population size and density – Per capita income and asset levels – Number of farms, manufacturers, wholesalers, service businesses – Number of retailers and retail sales – Number of existing malls and non-enclosed shopping centers – Shopping center legitimacy level Control Variables – Geographic region – Land area – Racial, urban/rural, age, and educational composition – National GDP – Federal Reserve Prime Interest Rate

5. Results

7. Table 1. Descriptive statistics VariableMinMaxMedianMeanSE

8. Table 1. Descriptive statistics VariableMinMaxMedianMeanSE Number of enclosed malls in operation06413.46.5

9. Table 1. Descriptive statistics VariableMinMaxMedianMeanSE Number of enclosed malls in operation06413.46.5 Year enclosed1956200919741975.210.3

11. Table 1. Descriptive statistics VariableMinMaxMedianMeanSE Number of enclosed malls in operation06413.46.5 Year enclosed1956200919741975.210.3 Survival Duration (years).146449.711.5

13. Table 1. Descriptive statistics VariableMinMaxMedianMeanSE Number of enclosed malls in operation06413.46.5 Year enclosed1956200919741975.210.3 Survival Duration (years).146449.711.5 Land Area (square miles)1136 K6481184.12856.2 Population459.8 M76.8 K318.5K797.2 K Population Density (persons per square mile).0484 K110699.63 K

14. Table 1. Descriptive statistics VariableMinMaxMedianMeanSE Number of enclosed malls in operation06413.46.5 Year enclosed1956200919741975.210.3 Survival Duration (years).146449.711.5 Land Area (square miles)1136 K6481184.12856.2 Population459.8 M76.8 K318.5K797.2 K Population Density (persons per square mile).0484 K110699.63 K White population proportion5%100%94%88.0%14.9% Urban population proportion0%100%63%57.8%32.9%

15. Table 1. Descriptive statistics VariableMinMaxMedianMeanSE Number of enclosed malls in operation06413.46.5 Year enclosed1956200919741975.210.3 Survival Duration (years).146449.711.5 Land Area (square miles)1136 K6481184.12856.2 Population459.8 M76.8 K318.5K797.2 K Population Density (persons per square mile).0484 K110699.63 K White population proportion5%100%94%88.0%14.9% Urban population proportion0%100%63%57.8%32.9% Median Age (years)19593434.76.8 High school graduation rate20%99%75%72.3%16.4%

16. Table 1. Descriptive statistics VariableMinMaxMedianMeanSE Number of enclosed malls in operation06413.46.5 Year enclosed1956200919741975.210.3 Survival Duration (years).146449.711.5 Land Area (square miles)1136 K6481184.12856.2 Population459.8 M76.8 K318.5K797.2 K Population Density (persons per square mile).0484 K110699.63 K White population proportion5%100%94%88.0%14.9% Urban population proportion0%100%63%57.8%32.9% Median Age (years)19593434.76.8 High school graduation rate20%99%75%72.3%16.4% Bank deposits, per capita, inflation adjusted06.5 K127159.781.2 Median household income, inflation adjusted9.5 K118 K49 K51 K13 K

17. Table 1. Descriptive statistics VariableMinMaxMedianMeanSE Number of enclosed malls in operation06413.46.5 Year enclosed1956200919741975.210.3 Survival Duration (years).146449.711.5 Land Area (square miles)1136 K6481184.12856.2 Population459.8 M76.8 K318.5K797.2 K Population Density (persons per square mile).0484 K110699.63 K White population proportion5%100%94%88.0%14.9% Urban population proportion0%100%63%57.8%32.9% Median Age (years)19593434.76.8 High school graduation rate20%99%75%72.3%16.4% Bank deposits, per capita, inflation adjusted06.5 K127159.781.2 Median household income, inflation adjusted9.5 K118 K49 K51 K13 K Number of farms08 K725903.8790.4 Number of manufacturers021 K88516.21711.6 Number of wholesalers024 K90605.81769.0 Number of service businesses0140 K5232.7 K7.7 K

18. Table 1. Descriptive statistics VariableMinMaxMedianMeanSE Number of enclosed malls in operation06413.46.5 Year enclosed1956200919741975.210.3 Survival Duration (years).146449.711.5 Land Area (square miles)1136 K6481184.12856.2 Population459.8 M76.8 K318.5K797.2 K Population Density (persons per square mile).0484 K110699.63 K White population proportion5%100%94%88.0%14.9% Urban population proportion0%100%63%57.8%32.9% Median Age (years)19593434.76.8 High school graduation rate20%99%75%72.3%16.4% Bank deposits, per capita, inflation adjusted06.5 K127159.781.2 Median household income, inflation adjusted9.5 K118 K49 K51 K13 K Number of farms08 K725903.8790.4 Number of manufacturers021 K88516.21711.6 Number of wholesalers024 K90605.81769.0 Number of service businesses0140 K5232.7 K7.7 K Number of retailers080 K5252.2 K5.6 K Retail sales, per capita, inflation adjusted ($)0128 K11 K 5 K

19. County-level models, without fixed effects

20. Table 2. Cox regression of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level Full Model Parsimonious Model Variableln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Region (reference=West).161.367 East.034 Midwest.004 South -.085

21. Table 2. Cox regression of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level Full Model Parsimonious Model Variableln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Region (reference=West).161.367 East.034 Midwest.004 South -.085 County Level Factors Land area (unit: 10,000 sq. miles) -.069.455.916 Population size (unit: 100,000 persons).006.016.006.003 1.01 (1.00, 1.01) Change in population size (in 10% increments).011.081.025.009 1.03 (1.01, 1.04) Population density (unit: 1,000 persons per sq. mile).029.016.013.009 1.01 (1.00, 1.02)

22. Table 2. Cox regression of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level Full Model Parsimonious Model Variableln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Region (reference=West).161.367 East.034 Midwest.004 South -.085 County Level Factors Land area (unit: 10,000 sq. miles) -.069.455.916 Population size (unit: 100,000 persons).006.016.006.003 1.01 (1.00, 1.01) Change in population size (in 10% increments).011.081.025.009 1.03 (1.01, 1.04) Population density (unit: 1,000 persons per sq. mile).029.016.013.009 1.01 (1.00, 1.02) Percent population that is white (in 10% increments) -.014.436.602 Change in white population (in 10% increments) -.007.884.575 Urban population proportion (in 10% increments).067.000.064.000 1.07 (1.04, 1.09) Change in urban proportion (in 10% increments) -.044.136.120

23. Table 2. Cox regression of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level Full Model Parsimonious Model Variableln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Region (reference=West).161.367 East.034 Midwest.004 South -.085 County Level Factors Land area (unit: 10,000 sq. miles) -.069.455.916 Population size (unit: 100,000 persons).006.016.006.003 1.01 (1.00, 1.01) Change in population size (in 10% increments).011.081.025.009 1.03 (1.01, 1.04) Population density (unit: 1,000 persons per sq. mile).029.016.013.009 1.01 (1.00, 1.02) Percent population that is white (in 10% increments) -.014.436.602 Change in white population (in 10% increments) -.007.884.575 Urban population proportion (in 10% increments).067.000.064.000 1.07 (1.04, 1.09) Change in urban proportion (in 10% increments) -.044.136.120 Median age (years) -.010.084 -.011.025 0.99 (0.98, 1.00) Change in median age (years) -.004.790.493 High school graduation rate (in 10% increments) -.014.647.915 Change in graduation rate (in 10% increments) -.166.019 -.193.003 0.82 (0.73, 0.94)

24. Table 2. Cox regression of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level Full Model Parsimonious Model Variableln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Region (reference=West).161.367 East.034 Midwest.004 South-.085 County Level Factors Land area (unit: 10,000 sq. miles)-.069.455.916 Population size (unit: 100,000 persons).006.016.006.0031.01 (1.00, 1.01) Change in population size (in 10% increments).011.081.025.0091.03 (1.01, 1.04) Population density (unit: 1,000 persons per sq. mile).029.016.013.0091.01 (1.00, 1.02) Percent population that is white (in 10% increments)-.014.436.602 Change in white population (in 10% increments)-.007.884.575 Urban population proportion (in 10% increments).067.000.064.0001.07 (1.04, 1.09) Change in urban proportion (in 10% increments)-.044.136.120 Median age (years)-.010.084 -.011.0250.99 (0.98, 1.00) Change in median age (years)-.004.790.493 High school graduation rate (in 10% increments)-.014.647.915 Change in graduation rate (in 10% increments)-.166.019 -.193.0030.82 (0.73, 0.94) Bank deposits (in $1,000,000s per capita)-.174.876.918 Change in bank deposits (in 10% increments)-.002.784.714 Median household income (in $1,000s).005.039.007.0001.01 (1.00, 1.01) Change in median household income (in 10% increm.).019.301.528

25. Table 2. Cox regression of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level (continued) Full Model Parsimonious Model Variableln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Number of farms (per 1,000 persons)-.012.000 -.012.0000.99 (0.98, 0.99) Change in number of farms (in 10% increments)-.005.476.359 Number of manufacturers (per 1,000 persons)-.085.009 -.079.0070.92 (0.87, 0.98) Change in number of manufacturers (in 10% increments)-.011.136 -.016.0200.98 (0.97, 1.00) Number of wholesalers (per 1,000 persons).014.663.904 Change in number of wholesalers (in 10% increments)-.005.353.247 Number of service businesses (per 1,000 persons).029.014.033.0011.03 (1.01, 1.05) Change in number of service businesses (in 10% increm.).033.000.033.0001.03 (1.02, 1.05)

26. Table 2. Cox regression of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level (continued) Full Model Parsimonious Model Variableln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Number of farms (per 1,000 persons)-.012.000 -.012.0000.99 (0.98, 0.99) Change in number of farms (in 10% increments)-.005.476.359 Number of manufacturers (per 1,000 persons)-.085.009 -.079.0070.92 (0.87, 0.98) Change in number of manufacturers (in 10% increments)-.011.136 -.016.0200.98 (0.97, 1.00) Number of wholesalers (per 1,000 persons).014.663.904 Change in number of wholesalers (in 10% increments)-.005.353.247 Number of service businesses (per 1,000 persons).029.014.033.0011.03 (1.01, 1.05) Change in number of service businesses (in 10% increments).033.000.033.0001.03 (1.02, 1.05) Number of retailers (per 1,000 persons) -.034.030 -.026.071 0.97 (0.95, 1.00) Change in number of retailers (in 10% increments) -.041.001 -.051.000 0.95 (0.93, 0.97) Retail sales (in $1,000s per capita).007.393.368 Change in retail sales (in 10% increments) -.002.761.770

27. Table 2. Cox regression of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level (continued) Full Model Parsimonious Model Variableln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Number of farms (per 1,000 persons) -.012.000 -.012.000 0.99 (0.98, 0.99) Change in number of farms (in 10% increments) -.005.476.359 Number of manufacturers (per 1,000 persons) -.085.009 -.079.007 0.92 (0.87, 0.98) Change in number of manufacturers (in 10% increments) -.011.136 -.016.020 0.98 (0.97, 1.00) Number of wholesalers (per 1,000 persons).014.663.904 Change in number of wholesalers (in 10% increments) -.005.353.247 Number of service businesses (per 1,000 persons).029.014.033.001 1.03 (1.01, 1.05) Change in number of service businesses (in 10% increments).033.000.033.000 1.03 (1.02, 1.05) Number of retailers (per 1,000 persons) -.034.030 -.026.071 0.97 (0.95, 1.00) Change in number of retailers (in 10% increments) -.041.001 -.051.000 0.95 (0.93, 0.97) Retail sales (in $1,000s per capita).007.393.368 Change in retail sales (in 10% increments) -.002.761.770 Number of malls.218.000.217.000 1.24 (1.23, 1.26) Number of malls, squared -.003.000 -.003.000 1.00 (1.00, 1.00)

29. Table 2. Cox regression of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level (continued) Full Model Parsimonious Model Variableln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Number of farms (per 1,000 persons) -.012.000 -.012.000 0.99 (0.98, 0.99) Change in number of farms (in 10% increments) -.005.476.359 Number of manufacturers (per 1,000 persons) -.085.009 -.079.007 0.92 (0.87, 0.98) Change in number of manufacturers (in 10% increments) -.011.136 -.016.020 0.98 (0.97, 1.00) Number of wholesalers (per 1,000 persons).014.663.904 Change in number of wholesalers (in 10% increments) -.005.353.247 Number of service businesses (per 1,000 persons).029.014.033.001 1.03 (1.01, 1.05) Change in number of service businesses (in 10% increments).033.000.033.000 1.03 (1.02, 1.05) Number of retailers (per 1,000 persons) -.034.030 -.026.071 0.97 (0.95, 1.00) Change in number of retailers (in 10% increments) -.041.001 -.051.000 0.95 (0.93, 0.97) Retail sales (in $1,000s per capita).007.393.368 Change in retail sales (in 10% increments) -.002.761.770 Number of malls.218.000.217.000 1.24 (1.23, 1.26) Number of malls, squared -.003.000 -.003.000 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) National Level Factors Number of malls (in increments of 100) -.059.079 -.080.000 0.92 (0.89, 0.96) Number of malls, squared.003.000.003.000 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) Number of shopping centers (in increments of 1,000).171.000.178.000 1.20 (1.14, 1.25) Number of shopping centers, squared -.004.000 -.004.000 1.00 (0.99, 1.00)

31. Table 2. Cox regression of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level (continued) Full Model Parsimonious Model Variableln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Number of farms (per 1,000 persons) -.012.000 -.012.000 0.99 (0.98, 0.99) Change in number of farms (in 10% increments) -.005.476.359 Number of manufacturers (per 1,000 persons) -.085.009 -.079.007 0.92 (0.87, 0.98) Change in number of manufacturers (in 10% increments) -.011.136 -.016.020 0.98 (0.97, 1.00) Number of wholesalers (per 1,000 persons).014.663.904 Change in number of wholesalers (in 10% increments) -.005.353.247 Number of service businesses (per 1,000 persons).029.014.033.001 1.03 (1.01, 1.05) Change in number of service businesses (in 10% increments).033.000.033.000 1.03 (1.02, 1.05) Number of retailers (per 1,000 persons) -.034.030 -.026.071 0.97 (0.95, 1.00) Change in number of retailers (in 10% increments) -.041.001 -.051.000 0.95 (0.93, 0.97) Retail sales (in $1,000s per capita).007.393.368 Change in retail sales (in 10% increments) -.002.761.770 Number of malls.218.000.217.000 1.24 (1.23, 1.26) Number of malls, squared -.003.000 -.003.000 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) National Level Factors Number of malls (in increments of 100) -.059.079 -.080.000 0.92 (0.89, 0.96) Number of malls, squared.003.000.003.000 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) Number of shopping centers (in increments of 1,000).171.000.178.000 1.20 (1.14, 1.25) Number of shopping centers, squared -.004.000 -.004.000 1.00 (0.99, 1.00) Shopping center legitimacy level (range: 0-1) -.184.688.883

32. Table 2. Cox regression of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level (continued) Full Model Parsimonious Model Variableln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Number of farms (per 1,000 persons) -.012.000 -.012.000 0.99 (0.98, 0.99) Change in number of farms (in 10% increments) -.005.476.359 Number of manufacturers (per 1,000 persons) -.085.009 -.079.007 0.92 (0.87, 0.98) Change in number of manufacturers (in 10% increments) -.011.136 -.016.020 0.98 (0.97, 1.00) Number of wholesalers (per 1,000 persons).014.663.904 Change in number of wholesalers (in 10% increments) -.005.353.247 Number of service businesses (per 1,000 persons).029.014.033.001 1.03 (1.01, 1.05) Change in number of service businesses (in 10% increments).033.000.033.000 1.03 (1.02, 1.05) Number of retailers (per 1,000 persons) -.034.030 -.026.071 0.97 (0.95, 1.00) Change in number of retailers (in 10% increments) -.041.001 -.051.000 0.95 (0.93, 0.97) Retail sales (in $1,000s per capita).007.393.368 Change in retail sales (in 10% increments) -.002.761.770 Number of malls.218.000.217.000 1.24 (1.23, 1.26) Number of malls, squared -.003.000 -.003.000 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) National Level Factors Number of malls (in increments of 100) -.059.079 -.080.000 0.92 (0.89, 0.96) Number of malls, squared.003.000.003.000 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) Number of shopping centers (in increments of 1,000).171.000.178.000 1.20 (1.14, 1.25) Number of shopping centers, squared -.004.000 -.004.000 1.00 (0.99, 1.00) Shopping center legitimacy level (range: 0-1) -.184.688.883 GDP (in $1 Trillions) -.485.000 -.489.000 0.61 (0.53, 0.71) GDP growth rate (in 10% increments).221.000.231.000 1.26 (1.17, 1.35) Federal Reserve Prime Rate (in 1% increments) -.004.673.524

33. County-level models, with fixed effects

34. Table 3. Cox regression with fixed effects of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level Full Model Parsimonious Model Variable ln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) County Level Factors Land area (unit: 10,000 sq. miles) -2.780.532.812 Population size (unit: 100,000 persons) -.016.290.329 Change in population size (in 10% increments).014.565.198 Population density (unit: 1,000 persons per sq. mile) -.113.018 -.113.022 0.89 (0.81, 0.98)

35. Table 3. Cox regression with fixed effects of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level Full Model Parsimonious Model Variable ln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) County Level Factors Land area (unit: 10,000 sq. miles) -2.780.532.812 Population size (unit: 100,000 persons) -.016.290.329 Change in population size (in 10% increments).014.565.198 Population density (unit: 1,000 persons per sq. mile) -.113.018 -.113.022 0.89 (0.81, 0.98) Percent population that is white (in 10% increments) -.089.323.265 Change in white population (in 10% increments) -.026.767.511 Urban population proportion (in 10% increments).008.874.931 Change in urban proportion (in 10% increments).030.614.690

36. Table 3. Cox regression with fixed effects of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level Full Model Parsimonious Model Variable ln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) County Level Factors Land area (unit: 10,000 sq. miles) -2.780.532.812 Population size (unit: 100,000 persons) -.016.290.329 Change in population size (in 10% increments).014.565.198 Population density (unit: 1,000 persons per sq. mile) -.113.018 -.113.022 0.89 (0.81, 0.98) Percent population that is white (in 10% increments) -.089.323.265 Change in white population (in 10% increments) -.026.767.511 Urban population proportion (in 10% increments).008.874.931 Change in urban proportion (in 10% increments).030.614.690 Median age (years) -.027.337.132 Change in median age (years) -.027.320.288 High school graduation rate (in 10% increments) -.226.071 -.206.047 0.81 (0.66, 1.00) Change in graduation rate (in 10% increments) -.398.005 -.301.018 0.74 (0.58, 0.95)

37. Table 3. Cox regression with fixed effects of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level Full Model Parsimonious Model Variable ln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) County Level Factors Land area (unit: 10,000 sq. miles) -2.780.532.812 Population size (unit: 100,000 persons) -.016.290.329 Change in population size (in 10% increments).014.565.198 Population density (unit: 1,000 persons per sq. mile) -.113.018 -.113.022 0.89 (0.81, 0.98) Percent population that is white (in 10% increments) -.089.323.265 Change in white population (in 10% increments) -.026.767.511 Urban population proportion (in 10% increments).008.874.931 Change in urban proportion (in 10% increments).030.614.690 Median age (years) -.027.337.132 Change in median age (years) -.027.320.288 High school graduation rate (in 10% increments) -.226.071 -.206.047 0.81 (0.66, 1.00) Change in graduation rate (in 10% increments) -.398.005 -.301.018 0.74 (0.58, 0.95) Bank deposits (in $1000s per capita) 2.721.577.226 Change in bank deposits (in 10% increments).005.654.383 Median household income (in $1,000s).022.008.019.007 1.02 (1.01, 1.03) Change in median household income (in 10% increments) -.030.330.856

38. Table 3. Multiple event history analyses with fixed effects (cont.) Full Model Parsimonious Model Variable ln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Number of farms (per 1,000 persons) -.040.000 -.047.000 0.95 (0.94, 0.97) Change in number of farms (in 10% increments) -.021.086.121 Number of manufacturers (per 1,000 persons) -.715.000 -.749.000 0.47 (0.37, 0.60) Change in number of manufacturers (in 10% increments).011.453.104 Number of wholesalers (per 1,000 persons) -.115.278.258 Change in number of wholesalers (in 10% increments).013.296.233 Number of service businesses (per 1,000 persons) -.004.878.618 Change in number of service businesses (in 10% increments).012.307.026.001 1.03 (1.01, 1.04)

39. Table 3. Multiple event history analyses with fixed effects (cont.) Full Model Parsimonious Model Variable ln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Number of farms (per 1,000 persons) -.040.000 -.047.000 0.95 (0.94, 0.97) Change in number of farms (in 10% increments) -.021.086.121 Number of manufacturers (per 1,000 persons) -.715.000 -.749.000 0.47 (0.37, 0.60) Change in number of manufacturers (in 10% increments).011.453.104 Number of wholesalers (per 1,000 persons) -.115.278.258 Change in number of wholesalers (in 10% increments).013.296.233 Number of service businesses (per 1,000 persons) -.004.878.618 Change in number of service businesses (in 10% increments).012.307.026.001 1.03 (1.01, 1.04) Number of retailers (per 1,000 persons) -.093.044 -.102.000 0.90 (0.85, 0.95) Change in number of retailers (in 10% increments).001.974.591 Retail sales (in $1000s per capita).029.127.362 Change in retail sales (in 10% increments) -.003.782.400

40. Table 3. Multiple event history analyses with fixed effects (cont.) Full Model Parsimonious Model Variable ln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Number of farms (per 1,000 persons) -.040.000 -.047.000 0.95 (0.94, 0.97) Change in number of farms (in 10% increments) -.021.086.121 Number of manufacturers (per 1,000 persons) -.715.000 -.749.000 0.47 (0.37, 0.60) Change in number of manufacturers (in 10% increments).011.453.104 Number of wholesalers (per 1,000 persons) -.115.278.258 Change in number of wholesalers (in 10% increments).013.296.233 Number of service businesses (per 1,000 persons) -.004.878.618 Change in number of service businesses (in 10% increments).012.307.026.001 1.03 (1.01, 1.04) Number of retailers (per 1,000 persons) -.093.044 -.102.000 0.90 (0.85, 0.95) Change in number of retailers (in 10% increments).001.974.591 Retail sales (in $1000s per capita).029.127.362 Change in retail sales (in 10% increments) -.003.782.400 Number of malls.159.000.151.000 1.16 (1.13, 1.20) Number of malls, squared -.002.000 -.002.000 1.00 (1.00, 1.00)

42. Table 3. Multiple event history analyses with fixed effects (cont.) Full Model Parsimonious Model Variable ln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Number of farms (per 1,000 persons) -.040.000 -.047.000 0.95 (0.94, 0.97) Change in number of farms (in 10% increments) -.021.086.121 Number of manufacturers (per 1,000 persons) -.715.000 -.749.000 0.47 (0.37, 0.60) Change in number of manufacturers (in 10% increments).011.453.104 Number of wholesalers (per 1,000 persons) -.115.278.258 Change in number of wholesalers (in 10% increments).013.296.233 Number of service businesses (per 1,000 persons) -.004.878.618 Change in number of service businesses (in 10% increments).012.307.026.001 1.03 (1.01, 1.04) Number of retailers (per 1,000 persons) -.093.044 -.102.000 0.90 (0.85, 0.95) Change in number of retailers (in 10% increments).001.974.591 Retail sales (in $1000s per capita).029.127.362 Change in retail sales (in 10% increments) -.003.782.400 Number of malls.159.000.151.000 1.16 (1.13, 1.20) Number of malls, squared -.002.000 -.002.000 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) National Level Factors Number of malls (in increments of 100).018.729.039.164 1.04 (0.98, 1.10) Number of malls, squared.001.148.001.088 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) Number of shopping centers (in increments of 1,000).102.013.112.001 1.12 (1.05, 1.19) Number of shopping centers, squared -.002.012 -.003.000 1.00 (1.00, 1.00)

45. Table 3. Multiple event history analyses with fixed effects (cont.) Full Model Parsimonious Model Variable ln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Number of farms (per 1,000 persons) -.040.000 -.047.000 0.95 (0.94, 0.97) Change in number of farms (in 10% increments) -.021.086.121 Number of manufacturers (per 1,000 persons) -.715.000 -.749.000 0.47 (0.37, 0.60) Change in number of manufacturers (in 10% increments).011.453.104 Number of wholesalers (per 1,000 persons) -.115.278.258 Change in number of wholesalers (in 10% increments).013.296.233 Number of service businesses (per 1,000 persons) -.004.878.618 Change in number of service businesses (in 10% increments).012.307.026.001 1.03 (1.01, 1.04) Number of retailers (per 1,000 persons) -.093.044 -.102.000 0.90 (0.85, 0.95) Change in number of retailers (in 10% increments).001.974.591 Retail sales (in $1000s per capita).029.127.362 Change in retail sales (in 10% increments) -.003.782.400 Number of malls.159.000.151.000 1.16 (1.13, 1.20) Number of malls, squared -.002.000 -.002.000 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) National Level Factors Number of malls (in increments of 100).018.729.039.164 1.04 (0.98, 1.10) Number of malls, squared.001.148.001.088 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) Number of shopping centers (in increments of 1,000).102.013.112.001 1.12 (1.05, 1.19) Number of shopping centers, squared -.002.012 -.003.000 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) Shopping center legitimacy level (range: 0-1).455.488.731

46. Table 3. Multiple event history analyses with fixed effects (cont.) Full Model Parsimonious Model Variable ln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Number of farms (per 1,000 persons) -.040.000 -.047.000 0.95 (0.94, 0.97) Change in number of farms (in 10% increments) -.021.086.121 Number of manufacturers (per 1,000 persons) -.715.000 -.749.000 0.47 (0.37, 0.60) Change in number of manufacturers (in 10% increments).011.453.104 Number of wholesalers (per 1,000 persons) -.115.278.258 Change in number of wholesalers (in 10% increments).013.296.233 Number of service businesses (per 1,000 persons) -.004.878.618 Change in number of service businesses (in 10% increments).012.307.026.001 1.03 (1.01, 1.04) Number of retailers (per 1,000 persons) -.093.044 -.102.000 0.90 (0.85, 0.95) Change in number of retailers (in 10% increments).001.974.591 Retail sales (in $1000s per capita).029.127.362 Change in retail sales (in 10% increments) -.003.782.400 Number of malls.159.000.151.000 1.16 (1.13, 1.20) Number of malls, squared -.002.000 -.002.000 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) National Level Factors Number of malls (in increments of 100).018.729.039.164 1.04 (0.98, 1.10) Number of malls, squared.001.148.001.088 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) Number of shopping centers (in increments of 1,000).102.013.112.001 1.12 (1.05, 1.19) Number of shopping centers, squared -.002.012 -.003.000 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) Shopping center legitimacy level (range: 0-1).455.488.731 GDP (in $1 Trillions) -.491.000 -.486.000 0.61 (0.51, 0.74) GDP growth rate (in 10% increments).155.004.164.001 1.18 (1.07, 1.30) Federal Reserve Prime Rate (in 1% increments).007.541.549

47. Conclusions Competition operates locally while symbiosis (including legitimacy) operates supra-locally

48. Conclusions Competition operates locally while symbiosis (including legitimacy) operates supra-locally Legitimacy trends have little impact at the local level mall development decision, though it has an important impact at the state level

49. Conclusions Competition operates locally while symbiosis (including legitimacy) operates supra-locally Legitimacy trends have little impact at the local level mall development decision, though it has an important impact at the state level Evidence suggests that density does not simultaneously reflect the opposing forces of legitimacy and competition

50. Conclusions Competition operates locally while symbiosis (including legitimacy) operates supra-locally Legitimacy trends have little impact at the local level mall development decision, though it has an important impact at the state level Evidence suggests that density does not simultaneously reflect the opposing forces of legitimacy and competition The evidence suggests mall development is affected by factors other than economic rationality

51. Conclusions Competition operates locally while symbiosis (including legitimacy) operates supra-locally Legitimacy trends have little impact at the local level mall development decision, though it has an important impact at the state level Evidence suggests that density does not simultaneously reflect the opposing forces of legitimacy and competition The evidence suggests mall development is affected by factors other than economic rationality – The industry factors thought to dominate the mall development decision had little impact

52. Conclusions Competition operates locally while symbiosis (including legitimacy) operates supra-locally Legitimacy trends have little impact at the local level mall development decision, though it has an important impact at the state level Evidence suggests that density does not simultaneously reflect the opposing forces of legitimacy and competition The evidence suggests mall development is affected by factors other than economic rationality – The industry factors thought to dominate the mall development decision had little impact 9.3% of the 3,977 enclosed malls built in counties with 40,000 or fewer people 12.4% built in counties with 50,000 or fewer people 28.1% built in counties with 100,000 or fewer people 37.5% of 3,977 enclosed malls built in counties with 150,00 or fewer people

53. Conclusions Competition operates locally while symbiosis (including legitimacy) operates supra-locally Legitimacy trends have little impact at the local level mall development decision, though it has an important impact at the state level Evidence suggests that density does not simultaneously reflect the opposing forces of legitimacy and competition The evidence suggests mall development is affected by factors other than economic rationality – The industry factors thought to dominate the mall development decision had little impact 9.3% of the 3,977 enclosed malls built in counties with 40,000 or fewer people 12.4% built in counties with 50,000 or fewer people 28.1% built in counties with 100,000 or fewer people 37.5% of 3,977 enclosed malls built in counties with 150,00 or fewer people – There is evidence of contagion at both the county and the state level

54. Thank You

55. Table 1. Descriptive statistics VariableMinMaxMedianMeanSE Number of enclosed malls in operation06413.46.5 Year enclosed1956200919741975.210.3 Survival Duration (years).146449.711.5 Land Area (square miles)1136 K6481184.12856.2 Population459.8 M76.8 K318.5K797.2 K Population Density (persons per square mile).0484 K110699.63 K White population proportion5%100%94%88.0%14.9% Urban population proportion0%100%63%57.8%32.9% Median Age (years)19593434.76.8 High school graduation rate20%99%75%72.3%16.4% Bank deposits, per capita, inflation adjusted06.5 K127159.781.2 Median household income, inflation adjusted9.5 K118 K49 K51 K13 K Number of farms08 K725903.8790.4 Number of manufacturers021 K88516.21711.6 Number of wholesalers024 K90605.81769.0 Number of service businesses0140 K5232.7 K7.7 K Number of retailers080 K5252.2 K5.6 K Retail sales, per capita, inflation adjusted ($)0128 K11 K 5 K

56. Table 2. Cox regression of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level Full Model Parsimonious Model Variableln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Region (reference=West).161.367 East.034 Midwest.004 South-.085 County Level Factors Land area (unit: 10,000 sq. miles)-.069.455.916 Population size (unit: 100,000 persons).006.016.006.0031.01 (1.00, 1.01) Change in population size (in 10% increments).011.081.025.0091.03 (1.01, 1.04) Population density (unit: 1,000 persons per sq. mile).029.016.013.0091.01 (1.00, 1.02) Percent population that is white (in 10% increments)-.014.436.602 Change in white population (in 10% increments)-.007.884.575 Urban population proportion (in 10% increments).067.000.064.0001.07 (1.04, 1.09) Change in urban proportion (in 10% increments)-.044.136.120 Median age (years)-.010.084 -.011.0250.99 (0.98, 1.00) Change in median age (years)-.004.790.493 High school graduation rate (in 10% increments)-.014.647.915 Change in graduation rate (in 10% increments)-.166.019 -.193.0030.82 (0.73, 0.94) Bank deposits (in $1,000,000s per capita)-.174.876.918 Change in bank deposits (in 10% increments)-.002.784.714 Median household income (in $1,000s).005.039.007.0001.01 (1.00, 1.01) Change in median household income (in 10% increments).019.301.528

57. Table 2. Cox regression of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level (continued) Full Model Parsimonious Model Variableln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Number of farms (per 1,000 persons) -.012.000 -.012.000 0.99 (0.98, 0.99) Change in number of farms (in 10% increments) -.005.476.359 Number of manufacturers (per 1,000 persons) -.085.009 -.079.007 0.92 (0.87, 0.98) Change in number of manufacturers (in 10% increments) -.011.136 -.016.020 0.98 (0.97, 1.00) Number of wholesalers (per 1,000 persons).014.663.904 Change in number of wholesalers (in 10% increments) -.005.353.247 Number of service businesses (per 1,000 persons).029.014.033.001 1.03 (1.01, 1.05) Change in number of service businesses (in 10% increments).033.000.033.000 1.03 (1.02, 1.05) Number of retailers (per 1,000 persons) -.034.030 -.026.071 0.97 (0.95, 1.00) Change in number of retailers (in 10% increments) -.041.001 -.051.000 0.95 (0.93, 0.97) Retail sales (in $1,000s per capita).007.393.368 Change in retail sales (in 10% increments) -.002.761.770 Number of malls.218.000.217.000 1.24 (1.23, 1.26) Number of malls, squared -.003.000 -.003.000 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) National Level Factors Number of malls (in increments of 100) -.059.079 -.080.000 0.92 (0.89, 0.96) Number of malls, squared.003.000.003.000 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) Number of shopping centers (in increments of 1,000).171.000.178.000 1.20 (1.14, 1.25) Number of shopping centers, squared -.004.000 -.004.000 1.00 (0.99, 1.00) Shopping center legitimacy level (range: 0-1) -.184.688.883 GDP (in $1 Trillions) -.485.000 -.489.000 0.61 (0.53, 0.71) GDP growth rate (in 10% increments).221.000.231.000 1.26 (1.17, 1.35) Federal Reserve Prime Rate (in 1% increments) -.004.673.524

58. Table 3. Cox regression with fixed effects of the time elapsed between mall enclosure events, county level Full Model Parsimonious Model Variable ln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) County Level Factors Land area (unit: 10,000 sq. miles) -2.780.532.812 Population size (unit: 100,000 persons) -.016.290.329 Change in population size (in 10% increments).014.565.198 Population density (unit: 1,000 persons per sq. mile) -.113.018 -.113.022 0.89 (0.81, 0.98) Percent population that is white (in 10% increments) -.089.323.265 Change in white population (in 10% increments) -.026.767.511 Urban population proportion (in 10% increments).008.874.931 Change in urban proportion (in 10% increments).030.614.690 Median age (years) -.027.337.132 Change in median age (years) -.027.320.288 High school graduation rate (in 10% increments) -.226.071 -.206.047 0.81 (0.66, 1.00) Change in graduation rate (in 10% increments) -.398.005 -.301.018 0.74 (0.58, 0.95) Bank deposits (in $1000s per capita) 2.721.577.226 Change in bank deposits (in 10% increments).005.654.383 Median household income (in $1,000s).022.008.019.007 1.02 (1.01, 1.03) Change in median household income (in 10% increments) -.030.330.856

59. Table 3. Multiple event history analyses with fixed effects (cont.) Full Model Parsimonious Model Variable ln (HR)p pHR (95% CI) Number of farms (per 1,000 persons) -.040.000 -.047.000 0.95 (0.94, 0.97) Change in number of farms (in 10% increments) -.021.086.121 Number of manufacturers (per 1,000 persons) -.715.000 -.749.000 0.47 (0.37, 0.60) Change in number of manufacturers (in 10% increments).011.453.104 Number of wholesalers (per 1,000 persons) -.115.278.258 Change in number of wholesalers (in 10% increments).013.296.233 Number of service businesses (per 1,000 persons) -.004.878.618 Change in number of service businesses (in 10% increments).012.307.026.001 1.03 (1.01, 1.04) Number of retailers (per 1,000 persons) -.093.044 -.102.000 0.90 (0.85, 0.95) Change in number of retailers (in 10% increments).001.974.591 Retail sales (in $1000s per capita).029.127.362 Change in retail sales (in 10% increments) -.003.782.400 Number of malls.159.000.151.000 1.16 (1.13, 1.20) Number of malls, squared -.002.000 -.002.000 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) National Level Factors Number of malls (in increments of 100).018.729.039.164 1.04 (0.98, 1.10) Number of malls, squared.001.148.001.088 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) Number of shopping centers (in increments of 1,000).102.013.112.001 1.12 (1.05, 1.19) Number of shopping centers, squared -.002.012 -.003.000 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) Shopping center legitimacy level (range: 0-1).455.488.731 GDP (in $1 Trillions) -.491.000 -.486.000 0.61 (0.51, 0.74) GDP growth rate (in 10% increments).155.004.164.001 1.18 (1.07, 1.30) Federal Reserve Prime Rate (in 1% increments).007.541.549