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Published byCharlotte Carol Lamb Modified over 9 years ago
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Hit Tracker Power Projection Jim Edmonds 1-year report: 2008 Projections, using 2007 data
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Hit Tracker Power Projection Method Observation and analysis of all long fly balls (any ball hit far enough to approach or clear the outfield fence of any MLB ballpark) for specified time period (1-3 seasons) Projection of each long fly ball, via Hit Tracker, into each of the 30 MLB parks, in each park’s average weather conditions. Evaluation of each projected ball as home run, off wall or “catchable”. Evaluation of each “catchable” ball via range model as Flyout or hit. Compilation of projected results for each ballpark, via substitution of projected results for actual results, and weighted towards more recent results (e.g. 3-2-1 weighting if 3-year analysis). Compilation of projected results as member of each team via 2009 schedule The Hit Tracker Power Projection method uses detailed individual analysis of every long fly ball hit by a player, and the ability to project those fly balls into other parks and weather conditions, to create the most accurate possible projection of a player’s future hitting performance. Key Steps:
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= FLY OUT = 2B = 3B = HR = 1B Long Fly Balls, Actual Landing Spots Jim Edmonds, 2007 = LINE OUT 200’ 250’ 300’ 400’ 350’ 450’ 500’
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Long Fly Balls, Detailed Data, page 1 of 2 Jim Edmonds, 2007
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Long Fly Balls, Detailed Data, page 2 of 2
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Projected 2008 Batted Ball Events and Averages by Ballpark Jim Edmonds, 2007
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Projected 2008 Home Runs per 162 games by Ballpark Jim Edmonds, 2007
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Projected 2008 Home Runs and Averages by Team Jim Edmonds, 2007
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Comparison to Actual 2008 Results Because Jim Edmonds switched teams in early May, 2008, from San Diego to the Chicago Cubs, the standard Hit Tracker Power Projection method must be modified slightly. Instead of using overall average park weather, two simulations were run, one with April weather, and one with weather equal to the May through September average. The results of these two simulations were then combined in a weighted average, based on Edmonds’ plate appearances with each of his teams, to arrive at the final projection Jim Edmonds, 2007 The projections predicted a significant gain in power over his 2007 numbers, primarily due to Wrigley Field’s closer left-center field fence. Edmonds’ actual 2008 performance conformed to the projection quite well, with his OBP, SLG% and OPS projections being highly accurate.
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